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Greater China Research Team
  • Greater China Research Team

Greater China Strategy Alpha Picks: October Conviction Calls

The HSI and MSCI China gained 7.1%/8.2% mom in September on Fed easing and optimism over advancements in semiconductors and AI. We remain positive in the medium term but expect near-term consolidation after the recent strong gains. The best performer of the month was Alibaba (+53.0% mom). With some rotations expected in non-tech stocks, our October calls are: add Galaxy, Jacobson, Ping An, Trip.com and WuXi Bio to BUY; SELL Meituan. Take profits on Alibaba and Xiaomi; cut losses on Anta.

Anish Jog ... (+6)
  • Anish Jog
  • Daniel Ives
  • Matthew Weiss
  • Sam Brandeis
  • Scott Devitt
  • Steven Wahrhaftig

M&A Set to Accelerate In Tech As AI Revolution Takes Hold; Top Tech Ta...

Figure 1: What Will the M&A Landscape Look Like Over the Next Decade?Source: Wedbush Securities, Inc.Funding Remains Strong Across Private AI Markets. With the AI Revolution hitting its next gear of growth, more AI companies across the public and private markets are starting to gain significant

Chase Tohanczyn ... (+3)
  • Chase Tohanczyn
  • Matthew Weiss
  • Scott Devitt

Now Arriving: September '25 Online Travel Trends

Key Findings:US hotel RevPAR growth averaged -1% Y/Y QTD through August, decelerating ~60bps from 2Q. RevPAR growth has been slightly negative the last three months after flat growth in May and April. Through the first two weeks of September, US hotel RevPAR has continued to stabilize.International

Chase Tohanczyn ... (+3)
  • Chase Tohanczyn
  • Matthew Weiss
  • Scott Devitt

Counting Clicks: August '25 Traffic Trends

Report Overview: Our analysis includes total web visits (desktop and mobile) to U.S. and international web domains, mobile app monthly active users (MAUs), daily active users (DAUs), and total time spent (where applicable). Throughout the report, we display Y/Y changes across each of these key metr

Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

China Internet: Re-valuation On Shifting Dynamics Of AI Infrastructure...

Following the release of 2Q25 results, the market has started to re-value AI-related and ad-tech upgrade themes. Garnering the most interest was the AI theme driven by: a) re-accelerated cloud revenue growth, b) the emergence of AI agents, c) broader AI application, and d) self-sufficiency in chip development. Potential beneficiaries of the AI theme poised for continuous re-rating include Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu. Tongcheng could see robust travel demand during Golden Week. Maintain OVERWEIGHT...

Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

Trip.com (9961 HK): Key Takeaways from NDR Meeting.

At our NDR meeting with TCOM on 18 Sep, management highlighted resilient domestic travel demand alongside solid progress in international travel, with outbound and inbound momentum supported by improving air capacity and easing visa restrictions. We remain positive on TCOM’s sustained travel growth and long-term margin outlook, underpinned by AI-driven initiatives, a strategic focus on the APAC region, and continued market share expansion through strengthened competitive advantages. Maintain BUY...

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+5)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ken Lee
  • Ming San Soong

Greater China Daily: Friday, September 19, 2025

Top Stories Sector Update | Automobile This week's key highlights include insights from a China Automobile Dealer Association forum and a visit to Lynk & Co's Chengdu plant, China's historic L3 ADAS policy approval, and weekly sales updates. The market responded positively to these developments, prompting target price upgrades for Tuopu, Sanhua, Joyson Electronics and Fuyao Glass. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT for China's auto sector, with Geely and CATL as top BUYs, and BYD and Li Auto as top SELLs. ...

Chase Tohanczyn ... (+3)
  • Chase Tohanczyn
  • Matthew Weiss
  • Scott Devitt

Takeaways from Skift Global Forum 2025

"Building Airbnb's Next Chapter":Brian Chesky, Co-Founder and CEO at AirbnbAirbnb CEO and Co-Founder Brian Chesky addressed Airbnb's lower-than-industry growth rate and shared his plan to reinvigorate growth to the teens-to-twenty percent range. The plan is centered around leveraging AI across the

Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

China Internet: Key Takeaways From Marketing Trip

Key investor focus areas discussed during the marketing trip include: a) key drivers for AI cloud and applications outperformance, b) sustainability of monetisation of AI applications, c) ROI of accelerating capex, d) self-sufficiency in chips development, and e) where the competition in food delivery and quick commerce is ultimately headed. We foresee that AI/AI Cloud, online gaming and OTAs are poised to benefit from further re-rating, supported by their outperformance in growth. Maintain OVER...

Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

China Internet: Strong top-line growth and margins further hurt in 2H2...

China’s internet companies reported intact 2Q25 top-line with mixed earnings results. The key focuses are on the latest quick commerce war and AI cloud and agent development. In 2Q25, we saw meaningful AI monetisation visibility contributing to incremental top-line growth, and expect this momentum to continue into 2H25. On the profitability front, margins will remain under pressure from heightened investments to fend off the intensifying competition in on-demand delivery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.

Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

Trip.com (9961 HK): 2Q25: Earnings beat; solid 3Q25 outlook propelled ...

TCOM’s 2Q25 earnings were better than expected. 2Q25 net revenue rose 16.2% yoy to Rmb14.9b, in line with consensus estimates. Non-GAAP net profit inched up 1% yoy to Rmb5b, beating consensus forecasts by 15%. Net margin shrank 5ppt yoy to 33.8%, better than consensus estimates. TCOM guided 3Q25 revenue growth of 12-17% yoy to Rmb18.1b, in line with consensus expectations. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$725.00 (US$94.00).

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+15)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Claire Wang Kelai
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ken Lee
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Ming San Soong
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Sunny Chen
  • Tham Mun Hon
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Greater China Daily: Friday, August 29, 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Market Strategy “Anti-involution” is now a policy focus after President Xi Jinping vowed to manage “disorderly competition” during the CFEAC meeting in July. The concept covers a broader area than the 2016-17 supply-side reform, but we expect the government to address excess supply issues and encourage competition through quality and technology upgrades rather than price-cutting. Sector leaders with scale and R&D depth will consolidate their market shares and emerge win...

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