reports
- Steffen Evjen
OKEA (Buy, TP: NOK23.00) - Set for strong sales and cash flow
Ahead of the Q1 report, due around 07:00 CET on 29 April, we forecast net production of ~33kboed and EBITDA of USD189m (no reliable consensus). We expect a meaningful overlift position and working capital release in the quarter, with USD69m in FCF, increasing OKEA’s net cash position to USD120m (NOK12/share or ~65% of current market cap). While we still forecast FCF to be negative in 2025–2026 due to high investments in new developments, we continue to find the long-term case attractive given a ...
- Steffen Evjen
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, we published a note on the harsh reality of USD70/bbl for our coverage. While investors appear to be positioning for lower oil prices, we believe consensus FCF estimates for NCS large caps remain overly aggressive. Meanwhile, DNO announced a discovery at the Kjøttkake prospect, north-west of Troll, adding ~NOK0.8/share (~4%) to DNO’s NAV and ~NOK1/share to Aker BP’s (
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 28/03/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: Production rises again. Maiden reserves report. First LNG sales in Kazakhstan on track for 1H26 – YE24 2P reserves in Uzbekistan were estimated at 18.5 mmboe. 4Q24 production was 10,511 boe/d increasing to 12,019 boe/d in March to date and 12,288 boe/d over the past five days. In March, Condor signed a non-binding letter of intent outlining the basic terms and conditions for ...
RKH ROCKHOPPER EXPLORATION
CNE CAIRN ENERGY PLC
REP REPSOL SA
VLE VALEURA ENERGY INC.
DNO DNO ASA CLASS A
PHAR PHAROS ENERGY
XOM EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION
BLOE BLOCK ENERGY
SENX SERINUS ENERGY
OKEA OKEA
RDSA ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
WDS WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LTD
SOUC SOUTHERN ENERGY CORP
ITH ITHACA ENERGY PLC
CDR CONDOR ENERGIES INC
PLSR PULSAR HELIUM INC.
- Steffen Evjen
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics and discussion
This week, NCS February production was broadly in line with the NOD’s expectations, with total output flat MOM but down 2.4% YOY. Aker BP showed solid January production, while Equinor, Vår Energi, OKEA and DNO showed declines MOM. Halten East is now on stream, but its slow ramp-up limits Vår Energi’s 2025 uplift to ~5kboed, reinforcing the downside risk to its 330–360kboed guidance. Also, DNO successfully placed a new USD600m bond (8.5% coupon) to refinance DNO04 and for general corporate purpo...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 21/03/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN)C; Target price of £0.10 per share: Significant power transaction highlights the value of the S. Africa electricity trading business – Etana Energy, the South African electricity trading business (49% held by Chariot) has arranged a US$55 mm guarantee finance facility through Standard Bank and secured an equity investment of up to US$20 mm from Norfund for working capital. In exchange, Standard Bank and Norfund will ho...
EGY VAALCO ENERGY INC.
TXP TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION
GENL GENEL ENERGY
ENI ENI S.P.A.
ALVOF ALVOPETRO ENERGY LTD
PCL PANCONTINENTAL OIL & GAS N.L.
SEI. SINTANA ENERGY
CHAR CHARIOT OIL & GAS
7777 3-D MATRIX
GKP GULF KEYSTONE PETROLEUM LTD.
DGOC DIVERSIFIED GAS & OIL
ENOG ENERGEAN PLC
BLOE BLOCK ENERGY
AOI AFRICA OIL CORP
SENX SERINUS ENERGY
JSE JADESTONE ENERGY
TAL PETROTAL (TAL)
SOUC SOUTHERN ENERGY CORP
CEQ CRITERIUM ENERGY LTD.
PRD PREDATOR OIL & GAS HOLDINGS PLC
CDR CONDOR ENERGIES INC
- Steffen Evjen
NCS February production in line
The Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s (NOD) preliminary NCS figures for February showed liquids production of 1,938kboed (in line with its forecast) and gas production of 355mcm/d (3.8% above its estimate). Overall production was 4.17mmboed, flat MOM (1.8% above its forecast), but down 2.4% YOY. Company-wise, Aker BP reported solid production in January, while Equinor, Vår Energi, OKEA and DNO all reported production down MOM.
- Steffen Evjen
- Stephane Foucaud
Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Replacing 160% of FY24 oil producti...
• At YE24, Criterium was estimated to hold 4.6 mmbbl 2P oil reserves, a slight increase from estimated YE23, as the reserves additions from the work-over program (especially the new GH sand) more tan offsets FY24 production of approximately 0.3 mmboe. • The after-tax NPV10 of the 2P reserves is US$60 mm. • The 2C contingent gas resources at Tungkal are estimated at 27.5 bcf, higher than the previous estimate of 20 bcf. The auditor has attributed a 90% chance of development to Southeast Mengoepeh...
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, BlueNord cut its Q1 production guidance by ~25% due to a breaker failure at Tyra, implying a 5% hit to 2025 guidance and likely delaying the first dividend from March to May. Following DNO’s Sval Energi acquisition, we upgraded OKEA to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to NOK23 (20). We believe historical NCS transaction multiples provide valuation support for OKEA. Meanwhile, the sector is down 10–20% since Brent peaked at USD82/bbl in mid-January, with scarce oil macro support ...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 14/03/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.80 per share: Reserves increase showcases FY24 drilling success – YE24 2P and 3P reserves are estimated at 13.6 mmboe and 22.3 mmboe, respectively. This represents an increase of 15% and 25%, respectively vs. YE23. Adding back FY24 production of 1.3 mmboe, the 2024 activity program has added approximately 2.8 mmboe of 2P reserves and 5.3 mmboe of 3P reserves at Tapir (overall increase ...
- Hybridan Team
- Jon Levinson
Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 13/03/2025
Our daily digest of news from UK Small Caps Our daily digest of news from UK Small Caps @HybridanLLP 13th March 2025 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced, or it is a rumour ***Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement ****Alphabetically arranged Share prices and market capitalisations taken from the current price on the d...
- Daniel Slater
Arrow Exploration (AXL LN) - Reserves update - BUY
Arrow has released its end 2024 reserves update, showing increases across various categories, including high reserves replacement ratios, based on the successful development and exploration drilling programmes during the year. Activity continues, with new horizontal development drilling ongoing.
- Stephane Foucaud
Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): Appraisal drilling results at Albe...
• YE24 2P and 3P reserves are estimated at 13.6 mmboe and 22.3 mmboe, respectively. This represents an increase of 15% and 25%, respectively vs. YE23. • Adding back FY24 production of 1.3 mmboe, the 2024 activity program has added approximately 2.8 mmboe of 2P reserves and 5.3 mmboe of 3P reserves at Tapir (overall increase including all the company’s assets: +3.0 mmboe of 2P reserves and +5.7 mmboe of 3P reserves). • The 2P reserves addition during 2024 is in line with our forecasts (+3.4 mmboe...
- Stephane Foucaud
Zephyr Energy Plc (AIM: ZPHR): Key Paradox well test results expected ...
• FY24 sales volumes averaged 1,149 boe/d including 139 bbl/d of NGL. The NGL sales were higher than we were anticipating (~100 bbl/d) but FY24 production of 1,052 boe/d was impacted by downtime experienced in the Williston Basin in 4Q24 due to extreme weather in the area. 4Q24 net production was 829 boe/d (plus NGL that we estimate at 90-100 bbl/d). • In the Paradox basin, 97% of the lateral in the State 36-2 LNW-CC-R well was drilled in the Cane Creek reservoir with elevated mud gas levels. ...
- Steffen Evjen
OKEA (Buy, TP: NOK23.00) - Transactions provide value support
DNO is set to acquire Sval Energi at an EV/2P of USD11.3/boe, broadly matching the NCS transaction average. Meanwhile, OKEA is trading at USD3.9/boe on the similar metric, and even the low-end of historical NCS transaction metrics would calculate to ~100–150% upside potential to the last close. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to NOK23 (20), with the latter still implying a P/NAV 0.6x, although we see even greater upside potential in an M&A scenario.
- Steffen Evjen
- Steffen Evjen
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 07/03/2025
GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target price of US$17 per share: Four new exploration wells at Confluencia Sur – The FY24 production had been reported previously. Gross production in Argentina is approximately 15,000 boe/d and is expected to increase to around 16,000-17,000 boe/d by the end of 2025. The acquisition of the Argentinian assets is anticipated to be completed in late 1Q25 or early 2Q25 pending the regulatory approval of the Neuquen province. While the test results at the three wells drilled at C...
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