Weekly news, topics & discussion

In the past week, we published an update on Equinor; we expect lowered renewables targets and capex guidance at the upcoming Capital Markets Update to be overshadowed by limited will or capacity for attractive shareholder distributions beyond 2025. We see significant downside risk for the stock to trade in line with peers on 2026e total shareholder yields. In other news, Panoro Energy released its Q3 results; we consider the report fairly neutral. Finally, production at Johan Sverdrup is back to...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 22/11/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C: Portion of deeper target at Welchau flows water on test – Two intervals (total of ~16 m) in the Steinalm formation. were tested at a stable rate (natural flow) of 240-290 bbl/d of drilling mud, likely contaminated formation water and some oil traces. Gas was initially observed at surface. While the achieved flow rate highlights the high permeability of the natural fractures, the absence of hydrocarbons is disappoi...

Caspian Sunrise (CASP LN) - Update on Disposition - Corporate

Caspian Sunrise announced today (12:43) that it has entered into a conditional Sale and Purchase Agreement with Absolute Resources LLP to sell the BNG MJF and the BNG South Yelemes structures for a headline consideration of $88m – consistent with prior announcements.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 15/11/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: 1.9 mbbl/d at latest CN well. Water disposal infrastructure operational. High net cash – The fifth horizontal well at Carrizales Norte (CNB HZ-6) is producing 1.9 mbbl/d of oil (0.95 mbbl/d net to Arrow) with a water cut of 31%. The well reached TD ~ one month ago. After ~1 month of production, CNB HZ-1 and CNB HZ-3 were also producing >30% water with ~1 mbbl/d oil produ...

US shale: limited revisions and colour on 2025 activity levels

Our Q3 survey of the US shale universe showed limited revisions to guidance for 2024, and we still expect muted 2024 production growth of ~4–5% YOY (+8% YOY in 2023). Our survey also suggests capex down ~2% YOY, as the companies continue to guide for flat activity. Limited colour was provided on 2025 activity levels and associated capex, which we will know more about in the Q4 results season. For Q3, our universe marginally underspent its cash flow, albeit with net debt continuing to build QOQ a...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 11 November 2024

* A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced, or it is a rumour ***Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement ****Alphabetically arranged Share prices and market capitalisations taken from the current price on the day of publication Dish of the day Admissions: None Delistings: Live Company Group (LVCG.L) has delisted from the AIM market What’s baking in the oven? ITF announced:*** Potential** Initial Public Offerings: 31 October 20...

Arrow Exploration (AXL LN) - Successful CNB HZ-6 well result - BUY

Arrow has announced a further successful horizontal well on its Carrizales Norte field (Arrow 50%), helping support company production and continuing to prove up the attractiveness of the Ubaque reservoir at Carrizales Norte and the application of horizontal wells to this.

Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): 1.9 mbbl/d at latest CN well. Wate...

• The fifth horizontal well at Carrizales Norte (CNB HZ-6) is producing 1.9 mbbl/d of oil (0.95 mbbl/d net to Arrow) with a water cut of 31%. The well reached TD ~ one month ago. • After ~1 month of production, CNB HZ-1 and CNB HZ-3 were also producing >30% water with ~1 mbbl/d oil production (gross). Overall current gross oil production from the existing horizontal wells (CNB HZ-1, HZ-3, HZ-4 and HZ-5 but excluding HZ-6) is 4.36 mbbl/d (2.18 mbbl/d net to Arrow) with each well producing 1-1.16...

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, DNO reported Q3 underlying results fairly in line with our estimates. It also introduced a long-term production guidance for its North Sea operations, which we find a bit too aggressive. Still, we estimate the North Sea net production to increase from 15kboed in 2024 to >20kboed in 2027. In other news, Equinor acquired a 11.8% stake from Sval Energi in the Halten East development, and BlueNord’s preliminary October production figures were at the lower end of its Q4 base production gui...

InsiderInsights.com Daily Ratings Report: November 6, 2024

InsiderInsights Ratings of Companies with Open-Market Form 4 Purchases; Sales Filed at the SEC on the date above. We separate the real investment intelligence from the noise. Saving you time, and improving your research process

InsiderInsights.com Daily Ratings Report: November 5, 2024

InsiderInsights Ratings of Companies with Open-Market Form 4 Purchases; Sales Filed at the SEC on the date above. We separate the real investment intelligence from the noise. Saving you time, and improving your research process

Caspian Sunrise (CASP LN) - Update on Acquisition of West Shalva

Caspian Sunrise announced today that it has received change of control consent from the Kazakh authorities allowing for the completion of the acquisition of the West Shalva contract area and that the company intends to drill an exploration well into the West Shalva structure in Q1 2025.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Aker BP reported Q3 results, with underlying figures in line with expectations. We believe operational tailwinds could benefit it going into 2025, with consensus perhaps underestimating the production potential. Meanwhile, although OKEA reported a strong Q3, we believe it was overshadowed by the introduction of production and capex guidance, which we consider soft. In other news, we see several potential share-price catalysts for BlueNord in the coming months, with the Tyra restart se...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 01/11/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.80 per share: Another positive operating update – The work-overs of two new existing wells have added 441 boe/d after a combined 20 m of previously unperforated reservoir pay was accessed. The first well is producing 410 boe/d. It was previously shut-in. The second well is producing an extra 31 boe/d (+65%) and continues to clean-up. With a total cost of 100 wells on Condor’s fields includ...

Energy Morning - 1 November 2024

OKEA (Buy, TP: NOK27.00) - Set for dividend restart at Q4

Q3 results were solid, with EBITDA 12% above our estimate. However, the strong results were offset by the introduction of production and capex guidance, which we believe was on the soft side. Accordingly, we have lowered our 2025–2026e FCF by NOK350m–250m, keeping FCF in negative territory until the Bestla project comes on-stream, set for 2027. Still, we estimate a positive LTM net profit and net cash position by year-end, which should set the stage for a dividend reintroduction at its Q4 result...

Steady operations and exciting exploration