reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent SPX breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we are upgrading our outlook to bullish. Since late-July, our outlook has been neutral on the S&P 500 (SPX), preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction. The market is breaking to new highs, hence our upgrade. We would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, as long as the SPX holds a...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Still Riding the Trend Higher; Upgrading Real Estate to Market Weight After discussing our expectations for a bounce in our 10/30/23 ETF Pathfinder with the Russell 2000 (IWM) testing major support at $162-$163, we outlined in our 11/20/23 ETF Pathfinder that we were shifting our outlook to bullish. Market-generated information has continued to be of the risk-on variety, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market. Therefore, we continue to expect a rally into year-...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low. Then, in our November 2, 2023 Int'l Compass, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in the MSCI ACWI (local currency). Finally, we outlined in our November 16, 2023 Int'l Compass our belief that a year-end rally has begun in global equities (MSCI ACWI). Recent developments have...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200 Resistance In our 4/3/23 ETF Pathfinder we noted that a test of 4165-4200 was in play on the S&P 500, and it made a high of 4169 last week. We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023 -- with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible -- but considering limited upside, we recommend shifting toward defensives including Utilities (XLU, RYU), Consumer Staples (XLP), Health Care (XLV, PPH), and gold miners (GDX). Downside targets on the S&P 500 continue to be at the Decembe...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Today's Fed Day to Determine Next Big Market Move? The S&P 500, Russell 2000 (IWM), and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) continue to have trouble breaking above their respective 200-day MAs and YTD downtrends, while the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) has been unable to sustain a breakout above 34,280. With that said, all four of these indexes are consolidating within tight ranges just below the aforementioned resistance levels, building energy for the eventual breakdown or breakout. We continue to recomm...
RRJ RENAISSANCERE HOLDINGS LTD.
TLYS TILLYS
TJX TJX COMPANIES INC
RGA REINSURANCE GROUP OF AMERICA INCORPORATED
EVEREST RE GROUP LTD.
GPS GAP INC.
ESGR ENSTAR GROUP LIMITED
BKE BUCKLE INC.
ANF ABERCROMBIE & FITCH CO. CLASS A
AEO AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS INC.
ACGL ARCH CAPITAL GROUP LTD.
ROST ROSINTER RESTAURANTS HOLDING ORD SHS
DXYN DIXIE GROUP
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
QQQ INVESCO QQQ TRUST
SERIES 1
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Testing YTD Lows; 2.5-Yr Commodity Uptrend Breaking In our previous ETF Pathfinder (Sept. 6) we discussed how key supports were being tested at 3900 on the S&P 500, $293-294 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and that breaks below these levels would virtually guarantee a test of the YTD lows -- or worse. Those support levels have broken, and we are now getting a test of the YTD lows. With so many indexes and key Sectors (e.g., Financials, Industrials, Technology) curren...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Headwinds Persist In last week's Compass (Aug. 23) we discussed the increasing odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes due to 5-week uptrend breaks on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000, the Fed tightening, and with Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar (DXY), and commodities (DJP) inflecting higher. We continue to see the market as being in pullback mode; the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 are all approaching 50-day MA support, the first big area of interest on this pul...
RUN SUNRUN INC.
JJSF J & J SNACK FOODS CORP.
HSY HERSHEY COMPANY
CASY CASEY'S GENERAL STORES INC.
TA.. TRANSALTA CORPORATION
ENPH ENPHASE ENERGY INC.
FSLR FIRST SOLAR INC.
SPWR SUNPOWER CORPORATION
TR TOOTSIE ROLL INDUSTRIES INC.
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
JBSS JOHN B. SANFILIPPO & SON INC.
TWNK HOSTESS BRANDS INC. CLASS A
SOL RENESOLA ADS
CAAP CORPORACION AMERICA AIRPORTS
QQQ INVESCO QQQ TRUST
MAXN SERIES 1
ARKO MAXEON SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES
ARKO CORP (A)
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Fed Set to Hike 50 bps As Indexes Test Support We have warned over the past month that a test of the lows, and possibly a break to new lows, is increasingly likely on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). This has played-out as we recently made marginal new lows amid additional indiscriminate selling on Tuesday and Friday last week. There is potential for an oversold bounce, but we will need to see back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside volume day on the NYSE i...
PSX PHILLIPS 66
PBF PBF ENERGY INC. CLASS A
MUSA MURPHY USA INC.
CVI CVR ENERGY INC.
CVE CENOVUS ENERGY INC.
CNO CNO FINANCIAL GROUP INC.
CLMT CALUMET SPECIALTY PRODUCTS PARTNERS L.P.
EEM ELECTRICITE ET EAUX DE MADAGASCAR
MPC. MADISON PACIFIC PROPERTIES INC. CL B
VLO VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
DK DELEK US HOLDINGS INC
ACWI ISHARES MSCI ACWI ETF
ACWX ISHARES MSCI ACWI EX US ETF
IMO IMMORENTE INVEST SA
OVV OVINTIV INC
DINO HOLLYFRONTIER CORP
OOOO OOOOO ENTERTAINMENT COMMERCE LTD.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Overweight Defensives & Commodity Sectors Market dynamics are almost exclusively bearish and our key “lines in the sand” on the major indexes are being violated amid the escalating Russia/Ukraine war. This includes 4257 on the S&P 500, $334 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and 33,250 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, while the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Russel Micro Caps (IWC) have been below the important $209 and $134 levels, respectively, since mid-January. As long as prices are below the aforementio...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
tick With Value; Gold Breaking Out As noted in our last ETF Pathfinder (Jan. 31), we remain bearish on the Russell 2000 index (IWM) and Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) as long as they remain below important resistance levels of $208 and $134, respectively. Additionally, we noted our expectation for sideways consolidation on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), but that as long as 4257 and $334 supports hold, respectively, we cannot get too bearish. These levels have held, however we will reiterate t...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Important "lines in the sand" have broken since our last ETF Pathfinder (Jan. 18), including $208 on the Russell 2000 index (IWM) and $134 on the Russell Micro Cap index (IWC); we are bearish on these indexes as long as they remain below their previous support levels. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) display uptrend violations and some sideways consolidation is likely; as long as 4257 and $334 supports hold, respectively, we cannot get too bearish. Breaks below these levels would sign...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Index Supports Breaking; Upgrading Utilities Indexes continue to violate our key "lines in the sand" as the Russell 2000 (IWM) broke below $208, the S&P 500 broke below 4495, and the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW) broke below $109. This type of damage paints a bearish picture at the index level, and will take some time to repair. Now that key supports have been violated, we are monitoring for oversold conditions that could mark a bottom. It is possible that yesterday's reversal could mark "th...
WEC WEC ENERGY GROUP INC
PPL PPL CORPORATION
PEG PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP INC
LNT ALLIANT ENERGY CORP
ED CONSOLIDATED EDISON INC.
DUK DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION
D DOMINION ENERGY INC
CMS CMS ENERGY CORPORATION
AVA AVISTA CORPORATION
FTS. FORTIS INC.
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
NI NIHAO MINERAL RESOURCES INT'L
EXC EXCEET GROUP SE
PCG PG&E CORPORATION
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Risk-Off Signals Abating In our last Compass (Dec. 22), we pointed out that despite conflicting signals (some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well), our bottom line is that we could not be bearish as long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&P 500 is above 4495. These support levels have held strong, and we are now seeing the aforementioned risk-off signals starting to abate. This is an encouragin...
MOS MOSAIC COMPANY
JLL JONES LANG LASALLE INCORPORATED
FCX FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC.
CF CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC.
APTS PREFERRED APARTMENT COMMUNITIES INC.
AMT AMERICAN TOWER CORPORATION
JOE ST. JOE COMPANY
BAM.A BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT INC. CLASS A
TRO. TARANIS RESOURCES INC.
TECK.B TECK RESOURCES LIMITED CLASS B
MMI MARCUS & MILLICHAP INC.
HHC HOWARD HUGHES CORPORATION
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
SBAC SBA COMMUNICATIONS CORP. CLASS A
INVH INVITATION HOMES INC.
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
ICL ICL GROUP LTD.
IPI INTREPID POTASH
JETS US GBL JETS ETF
IWC ISHARES MICRO-CAP ETF
UAN ARCADIAN PARTNERS LP
XLY AUXLY CANNABIS GROUP INC
CTO CTO REALTY GROWTH INC
CCI CALAMOS GLOBAL CONVERTIBLE & DYNAMIC INCOME TRUST
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Index and Sector Breakdowns Remain Absent Weak market dynamics continue to be counterbalanced by the fact that there is an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level; even the weakest Sectors such as Energy (XLE, XOP, RYE) and Transportation (IYT, XTN, JETS) are holding above key supports. Until we start to see breakdowns at the Sector and index level, we remain constructive overall. Breakdowns Remain Absent. There continues to be an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level, ...
WM WASTE MANAGEMENT INC.
ROL ROLLINS INC.
IT GARTNER INC.
CTSH COGNIZANT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS CORPORATION CLASS A
LBRDA LIBERTY BROADBAND CORP. CLASS A
RSG REPUBLIC SERVICES INC.
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
WCN WASTE CONNECTIONS INC.
XOP SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORATION ETF
JETS US GBL JETS ETF
IWC ISHARES MICRO-CAP ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Sell In May And Go Away? The weight of the evidence remains positive and we continue to recommend adding exposure on pullbacks. We are entering a seasonally weaker period for the S&P 500 ("sell in May and go away") which could lead to some softness, however that alone is no reason to be bearish and we continue to see pullbacks as buying opportunities. S&P 500. The S&P 500 remains bullish and is in an uptrend, though continues to be extended in the short-term as it hovers near potential resista...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Int'l Insights: Bullish Stocks
Overweight EM vs. EAFE; Dollar Weakness Continues The MSCI EM index (local currency) remains bullish from a price perspective as it breaks above 2-year resistance to new all-time highs; as long as price is above base support near 65,700, we are bullish from a price perspective. Additionally, the MSCI EM vs. EAFE ratio remains in an uptrend -- remain overweight EM relative to EAFE. We continue to attribute much of EM's outperformance to the downtrend in the US dollar (DXY). As long as weaknes...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
S&P 500 Testing Short-Term Support Market dynamics remain positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across the major indexes and all Sectors. As a result we remain bullish and recommend adding exposure on pullbacks. · S&P 500 Levels. We see short-term support on the S&P 500 at 3630-3645. If this area fails to hold, the next important support levels to watch would be 3588 followed by 3550. As long as 3550 holds, we believe a bullish intermediate-term outlook is appropr...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrades: Industrials, Energy, Small-Caps, Int'l Equities Market dynamics remain positive and we believe the path of least resistance is higher for equities. Below are several observations that help lead us to our bullish outlook. · Small-Caps Leading The Way. The Russell 2000 (IWM) is breaking out to all-time highs and RS shows a major bullish reversal -- overweight small-caps. We view this as an important risk-on signal and is exactly what we would expect to see in a broad-based bull...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
S&P 500, Nasdaq Testing Support; Downgrading Energy Following uptrend violations in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 we made a tactical shift to a neutral outlook, something that continues to be supported by the weight of the evidence. Below we highlight several metrics we are watching; until these metrics take a turn for the worse, our neutral outlook is appropriate. · S&P 500, Nasdaq 100. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are above key support levels. On the S&P 500 we are watching...
IYT ISHARES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE
SOXX ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
IGV ISHARES NORTH AMERICAN TECH-SOFTWARE ETF
EFNL ISHARES MSCI FINLAND CAPPED INVESTABLE MARKET INDEX FUND
EWJ ISHARES MSCI JAPAN ETF
EWT ISHARES MSCI TAIWAN ETF
EWGS ISHARES MSCI GERMANY SMALL-CAP
KWEB KRANESHARES CSI CHINA INTERNET FUND
EWD ISHARES MSCI SWEDEN ETF
A2AKZX ISHARES MSCI SAUDI ARABIA CAPPED ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Prior Concerns Becoming Tailwinds Several concerns that we have previously noted as being risks to our bullish outlook are now becoming tailwinds. This includes interest rates which are now moving higher and price and RS improvements for cyclical value Sectors. As a result we remain bullish and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. · 10-Year Treasury Yield Reversing Higher. Earlier this week the 10-year Treasury yield made a bullish reversal, and we now see the short...
EWY ISHARES MSCI SOUTH KOREA CAPPED INDEX FUND
EWN ISHARES MSCI NETHERLANDS ETF
SOXX ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
EFNL ISHARES MSCI FINLAND CAPPED INVESTABLE MARKET INDEX FUND
XRT SPDR S&P RETAIL ETF
ITB ISHARES U.S. HOME CONSTRUCTION
EWT ISHARES MSCI TAIWAN ETF
EWGS ISHARES MSCI GERMANY SMALL-CAP
COPX GLOBAL X COPPER MINERS ETF
KWEB KRANESHARES CSI CHINA INTERNET FUND
EWD ISHARES MSCI SWEDEN ETF
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