Cash bond markets are overstating credit risk with a YTW of 5.931% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 4.724%, while CDS markets are slightly overstating risk with a CDS of 89bps relative to an Intrinsic CDS of 38bps. In addition, Moody's is overstating UBER's fundamental credit risk with its Ba3 credit rating, four notches below Valens' IG4 (Baa2) credit rating. Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mixed signals for credit holders. As a positive, all members of management are material ...
We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 212 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides:
Today, we are publishing the ride-sharing and delivery section of our 22nd Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 130 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Ride-sharing and delivery bookings beat expectations, and EBITDA margins expanded further in 4Q driven by leverage and cost control. Uber and Grab remain our favoured companies to own in t...
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