reports
- Blair Levin
Winners and Losers (in Capital Markets) in the Kimmel Saga
Now that Kimmel is back on the air, is the saga of his suspension over from a capital markets perspective? We think not. In this note, we outline what we think will be the effect as the media sector wrestles with technological, market, and policy changes, as well as who we think the winners and losers will be in the dynamics that emerge from the twists and turns of the last week.
- Blair Levin
Will FCC Revoke ABC Licenses?
In an interview, FCC Brendan Carr said ABC could lose its broadcast license due to comments Jimmy Kimmel made about Charlie Kirk. Shortly thereafter, ABC announced that it was suspending Kimmel “indefinitely,” and Trump also suggested license revocation was justified. In this note, we review the issues involved with and probabilities of the FCC successfully revoking ABC licenses or otherwise taking further action against ABC.
Walt Disney Co: 1 director
A director at Walt Disney Co sold 1,971 shares at 118.570USD and the significance rating of the trade was 66/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...
- Blair Levin
Could the Trump/Carr Gambits Against CMSCA (and DIS) Backfire?
Recently, we published a note in which we laid out why we thought the FCC Chair’s investigation of CMSCA’s treatment of its network affiliates, like his prior investigation of DIS, was unlikely to lead to a judicially supported resolution; rather, the investigation was designed to provide Carr leverage in any FCC transaction involving CMSCA. We also just published a note discussing how the FCC and DOJ are likely to provide greater consolidation among broadcasters and cable channels, putting econ...
- Blair Levin
How will the Government Treat a Nexstar/Tegna Deal?
The WSJ is reporting that two large broadcast groups—Nexstar and Tegna—are contemplating a merger. In this note we provide background on the current regulatory hurdles to such a transaction and how the FCC, the DOJ, and courts might react to a deal.
- Blair Levin
Media Consolidation: Will FOX (Like CMSCA and DIS) Be in a Trump Trans...
As the Skydance/Paramount deal has demonstrated, the Trump FCC will address media transactions through a political lens. In this note, we discuss the implications for the sector of FOX potentially finding itself in the same position as CSMCA and DIS when it comes to the upcoming media consolidation, as well as other implications of the Colbert Affair and the federal defunding of PBS.
Sinclair Inc: 1 director
A director at Sinclair Inc bought 185,145 shares at 13.402USD and the significance rating of the trade was 71/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...
Nexstar Media Group Inc : 1 director
A director at Nexstar Media Group Inc sold 3,768 shares at 181.984USD and the significance rating of the trade was 78/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two year...
- Blair Levin
DISH Challenge to Venu Succeeds: What’s Next?
This morning, we published a note on DISH’s challenge to the Venu Joint Venture. We discussed the implications of DISH’s letter to the District Court Judge who had been overseeing the case accusing the defendants of having “purchased their way out of their antitrust violation.” The letter pointed to how the joint venture harms MVPDs like DISH by forcing DISH (or Sling) to offer big bundles while offering their own “skinny” packages. The letter concluded by saying that “EchoStar is currently ev...
- Blair Levin
DISH Challenges Disney/Venu/Fubo Deal: Implications for Investors
Earlier this week, Fubo and Disney settled their disagreement over the antitrust case Fubo had filed challenging the Disney/Warner/Fox joint venture to create a streaming sports bundle called Venu. Fubo had won the first round, with the District Court finding that the joint venture violated the antitrust laws. The defendants appealed and the case was heading towards a Court of Appeals argument. The case settled, however, because Disney agreed to buy a controlling interest in Fubo as well as p...
- Pelham Smithers
DIS WALT DISNEY COMPANY
9697 CAPCOM CO. LTD.
4816 TOEI ANIMATION
9468 KADOKAWA CORPORATION
9766 KONAMI HOLDINGS CORP
7974 NINTENDO CO. LTD.
6758 SONY CORPORATION
9602 TOHO CO. LTD.
3765 GUNGHO ONLINE ENTERTAINMENT INC.
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
6460 JP SEGA SAMMY
78320 BANDAI NAMCO
- VRS RESEARCH TEAM
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
ULTA ULTA BEAUTY INC
SWN SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY COMPANY
RYAAY RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC ADS
PZZA PAPA JOHN'S INTERNATIONAL INC.
PKXN POSCO
HXL HEXCEL CORPORATION
GNTX GENTEX CORPORATION
EEFT EURONET WORLDWIDE INC.
DIS WALT DISNEY COMPANY
CLMT CALUMET SPECIALTY PRODUCTS PARTNERS L.P.
CDNS CADENCE DESIGN SYSTEMS INC.
ALB ALBEMARLE CORPORATION
ALV ALLIANZ SE
DRO DRONESHIELD
CRI CARTER'S INC.
LSCC LATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR CORPORATION
PVH PVH CORP.
WB WEIBO CORP SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
YUMC YUM CHINA HOLDINGS INC.
LW LAMB WESTON HOLDINGS INC.
BHP BHP GROUP
NXE. NEXGEN ENERGY LTD
APTV APTIV PLC
CELH CELSIUS HOLDINGS INC.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
SOM SOMERO ENTERPRISE
ALGM ALLEGRO MICROSYSTEMS
BBWI BATH & BODY WORKS INC
WOLF WOLFSPEED INC
DUOL DUOLINGO INC
INFA INFORMATICA INC
ZGN ERMENEGILDO ZEGNA NV
BRBR BELLRING BRANDS INC
MBLY MOBILEYE GLOBAL INC
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: FCC Dings Nexstar for Exceeding Ownership Limits but Real ...
Last week, the FCC ruled that Nexstar’s relationship with Mission Broadcasting’s WPIX in New York City violated its rules and the national broadcast ownership cap. In this note, we discuss how this decision reflects the priorities of the current FCC, but also broader themes related to the decline of linear television and upcoming changes to both the market and the video regulatory environment.
TMUS T-MOBILE US INC.
VZ VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC.
T AT&T INC.
SBGI SINCLAIR BROADCAST GROUP INC. CLASS A
NXST NEXSTAR MEDIA GROUP INC. CLASS A
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
DISH DISH NETWORK CORPORATION CLASS A
DIS WALT DISNEY COMPANY
CHTR CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS INC. CLASS A
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
FOX FOX CORPORATION CLASS B
WBD WARNER BROS. DISCOVERY INC.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: DOJ to Investigate Sports Streaming Combo
This week we are publishing weekend updates on telecom and media. In this media update, we follow-up on our analysis of the new joint venture creating a streaming app that would air a large amount of sports programming with our analysis of the news that the DOJ is going to investigate the joint venture on antitrust grounds. As we discuss, the informal report that DOJ will consider the antitrust implications is not a surprise and is likely designed in part to assist those involved in the investig...
TMUS T-MOBILE US INC.
VZ VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC.
T AT&T INC.
SBGI SINCLAIR BROADCAST GROUP INC. CLASS A
NXST NEXSTAR MEDIA GROUP INC. CLASS A
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
DISH DISH NETWORK CORPORATION CLASS A
DIS WALT DISNEY COMPANY
CHTR CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS INC. CLASS A
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
FOX FOX CORPORATION CLASS B
- Derek Terrington
Hardman & Co Insight: Streamed content takes over
The Great Correction of 2022 saw the share prices of streamers plunge after market leader Netflix reported a slowdown/fall in subscriber growth. Having formerly been seduced by hectic subscriber growth rates, investors quickly refocused, this time on fundamental metrics such as revenue, margins, profits and cashflow. Since then, streamers have continued to take a steadily greater share of viewing while linear TV continues to decline. But growth in streaming subscribers in the US and UK is now a ...
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Another Shoe Drops on Linear Television Bundles; How Will ...
In this media update we analyze the likely government reaction to the news that ESPN, Fox, and Warner Bros./Discovery will team-up to launch a new, stand-alone streaming app to air their combined sports content. That news, combined with new numbers on YouTube TV subscribers, demonstrates that the decline of linear television is accelerating.
TMUS T-MOBILE US INC.
VZ VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC.
T AT&T INC.
SBGI SINCLAIR BROADCAST GROUP INC. CLASS A
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
DISH DISH NETWORK CORPORATION CLASS A
DIS WALT DISNEY COMPANY
CHTR CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS INC. CLASS A
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
FOX FOX CORPORATION CLASS B
Disney and Epic Games to Create Expansive and Open Games and Entertain...
BURBANK, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- The Walt Disney Company and Epic Games will collaborate on an all-new games and entertainment universe that will further expand the reach of beloved Disney stories and experiences. Disney will also invest $1.5 billion to acquire an equity stake in Epic Games alongside the multiyear project. The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, including regulatory approvals. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: (Graphic: The Walt Disney Company) In addition to being a world-class games experience and interoperating with F...
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: House Hearing and Deal Speculation Raise Questions About Q...
In this media focused note, we focus on two events that occurred last week; a House hearing on sports programming rights and speculation that media mogul Byron Allen would make a bid for Paramount Global. We think both events are occurring in an environment in which linear television, the primary transmission path for sports programming and the primary assets of Paramount are in secular decline. Yet curiously, in both the hearing and the deal speculation, there was little attention paid to the...
VZ VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC.
T AT&T INC.
SBGI SINCLAIR BROADCAST GROUP INC. CLASS A
NXST NEXSTAR MEDIA GROUP INC. CLASS A
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
DIS WALT DISNEY COMPANY
CHTR CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS INC. CLASS A
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
FOX FOX CORPORATION CLASS B
APPL APPLE INC - APPL - US
- Blair Levin
TMUS T-MOBILE US INC.
VZ VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC.
T AT&T INC.
SBGI SINCLAIR BROADCAST GROUP INC. CLASS A
SATS ECHOSTAR CORPORATION CLASS A
NXST NEXSTAR MEDIA GROUP INC. CLASS A
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
DIS WALT DISNEY COMPANY
CHTR CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS INC. CLASS A
SNAP SNAPCHAT
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
PINS PINTEREST INC. CLASS A
FOX FOX CORPORATION CLASS B
APPL APPLE INC - APPL - US
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