JMDC shares have rallied +56% since 7 April pushing EV/OP above 20x. However, shares are still half of what they were vs the 2021 peak. With the company in good shape to improve margins over the next three years thanks to an improving sales mix and balance of clients, and the IT Service sector being back in vogue in the Japanese market, we think it is possible that valuations might take a back seat.
Japan’s mobile sector accelerated again in Q4 and we think is heading to above inflation. With both KDDI and DCM recently announcing price increases the environment is increasingly benign and should be helped by NTT’s recent acquisition of SBI Sumishin Net Bank. Our recent trip to Japan highlighted how positive the environment is; NTT stays our preferred pick, with KDDI closely behind.
As has been widely rumoured, NTT has offered to acquire up to 66% of SBI Sumishin Bank (7163-JP), in a bid to strengthen its financial services offering. The offer price (¥3,615) represents a 10% premium to yesterday’s price, but actually around 10% below today’s closing price.
As rumoured, NTT has offered to buy out the minorities (~42.3%) of NTT Data via a tender offer, at a 34% premium, or ¥4,000 per share. This is a slightly lower premium than we would have expected and implies a transaction value for the minority stake of ¥2.4tn (USD 16.5bn). Quick thoughts below.
BayCurrent (6532 JT) is a pure-play Japanese IT and management consultancy company which is growing sales faster than the broader market, thanks to robust hiring, and a strategy of increasing the number of its core clients. Increasing hiring by around +20% YoY is limiting utilisation growth, but we expect gradual improvement from FY26. Spending on IT is a long-term investment in efficiency and a solution to labour shortages, both of which need addressing in Japan. This places IT Service sector c...
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