reports
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Avantium: Management team change. Belgian telcos: Extra data on Proximus brand mobile plans at no additional cost. Elia: Launch of €1.35bn rights issue and closing of €850m private placement. Randstad: Preliminary preview of 1Q25F results due 23 April. Shell plc: Very solid CMD, attractive outlook for shareholders. Tessenderlo: 2024 in-line with lowered outlook, soft 2025F guidance
- Wim Hoste
Tessenderlo FIRST LOOK: FY24 adjusted EBITDA -17%, FY25 guidance of fl...
Tessenderlo's FY24 adjusted EBITDA dropped by c17%, in line with the -15-20% guidance and broadly in line with our and consensus forecasts. The FY25 guidance points to a flat to 20% higher adjusted EBITDA, with our forecast (+12%) in line with this guidance whilst consensus (+24%) seems too high. Whilst business conditions in a number of end markets are clearly challenging, Tessenderlo is still generating a sizeable cash flow. Despite the fairly weak recent earnings momentum, we consider valuati...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
Tessenderlo Tough end markets hurt earnings momentum
We have lowered our adjusted EBITDA forecasts for FY24-26 by a 12-15% range following the FY24 adjusted EBITDA guidance reduction from a 5-10% decline to a 15-20% drop. Whilst business conditions in a number of end markets are clearly challenging, Tessenderlo is still generating a sizeable free cash flow, which we estimate at c. 120m for FY24 and which represents a FCF yield of c 10%. The company is using its solid balance sheet and FCF to buy back own shares. Despite the disappointing earnings ...
- Wim Hoste
Tessenderlo FY adjusted EBITDA guidance lowered to -15-20%
Tessenderlo lowered FY adjusted EBITDA guidance from a 5-10% drop to a 15-20% decline, mainly due to weaker than expected performance in Bio-valorization and Agro segments. The new guidance range is at midpoint about 12% below our forecast and 11% below consensus. We will adjust our model accordingly. Whilst business conditions in many of the group's end markets are challenging, Tessenderlo is still generating sizeable FCF (we remind FCF was close to €100m in 1H). The company is using its solid ...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Hoste
Tessenderlo Model update – lowering estimates and lowering TP
We have lowered our adjusted EBITDA forecasts for FY24-26 by 8% following the FY24 guidance reduction from a flat result to a 5-10% drop. Whilst business conditions in a number of end markets are clearly challenging, Tessenderlo is still generating sizeable FCF (close to €100m in 1H). Starting from a very solid balance sheet, capital allocation is a crucial theme in the equity story. We view share buybacks as an excellent way to create shareholder value and welcome the awaited simplification of ...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
ASR: 1H small beat, KNAB add-on to Solvency 2 higher. Avantium: Down to the wire. Flow Traders: Pump up the volume. Greenyard: 1Q24/25 preview. Kendrion: Navigating difficult end markets. Montea: Solid results with no surprises, guidance reiterated. NEPI Rockcastle: Guidance raised, M&A opportunities on the radar. Tessenderlo: 1H24 Adj. EBITDA miss of 5%, lower FY guidance
- Wim Hoste
Tessenderlo FIRST LOOK: 1H adj. EBITDA -26.5%, FY guidance lowered
1H adj EBITDA dropped by 26.5% and was 1% better than our forecast although 5% below consensus. FY adj EBITDA guidance has been lowered from a flat result to a 5-10% drop whilst we and consensus were banking on +2%. Whilst business conditions in a number of end markets are clearly challenging, Tessenderlo is still generating sizeable FCF (close to €100m in 1H). Starting from a very solid balance sheet, capital allocation is a crucial theme in the equity story. We view share buybacks as an excell...
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Stijn Demeester
Tessenderlo/Adhering to a constructive view as cycle turns/BUY
As we revisit the Tessenderlo investment case, we reiterate our BUY recommendation on a target price of €32 per share, from €44 previously. While ongoing macro headwinds are likely to result in a soft 1H24 performance, we expect earnings to recover as of 2025F, driven by selective growth investments. Additionally, we believe Tessenderlo's attractive valuation, strong cash generation and solid balance sheet further warrant a constructive stance.
Tessenderlo Group: 2 directors
Two Directors at Tessenderlo Group bought/sold 1,253,192 shares at 26.050EUR. The significance rating of the trade was 70/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two y...
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
Tessenderlo Solid balance sheet and FCF generation create options
We appreciate the efforts to step up investor communication as evidenced by the recent analyst & asset manager day. Whilst business conditions in a number of end markets are still challenging, we still expect Tessenderlo to generate between € 150-200m FCF per annum in the coming years. Starting from a very solid balance sheet, capital allocation is a crucial theme in the equity story. Tessenderlo has recently embarked upon a new € 69m share buyback program and we view share buybacks as an excell...
- Kristof Samoy
- Michiel Declercq
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Hoste
Tessenderlo FIRST LOOK: Feedback analyst & asset manager day
At the occasion of its analyst & asset manager day in Ham, Tessenderlo reiterated its FY guidance of a flat adjusted EBITDA in FY24, which is about 32% below the peak year of FY22. The net cash position allows to pursue share buybacks, although management made it clear they would prefer to grow the company via additional investments (both organic and inorganic). Tessenderlo is a very diversified group with limited synergies between the various operations. Despite the limited liquidity and diffic...
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