reports
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Hoste
Tessenderlo Model update – lowering estimates and lowering TP
We have lowered our adjusted EBITDA forecasts for FY24-26 by 8% following the FY24 guidance reduction from a flat result to a 5-10% drop. Whilst business conditions in a number of end markets are clearly challenging, Tessenderlo is still generating sizeable FCF (close to €100m in 1H). Starting from a very solid balance sheet, capital allocation is a crucial theme in the equity story. We view share buybacks as an excellent way to create shareholder value and welcome the awaited simplification of ...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
ASR: 1H small beat, KNAB add-on to Solvency 2 higher. Avantium: Down to the wire. Flow Traders: Pump up the volume. Greenyard: 1Q24/25 preview. Kendrion: Navigating difficult end markets. Montea: Solid results with no surprises, guidance reiterated. NEPI Rockcastle: Guidance raised, M&A opportunities on the radar. Tessenderlo: 1H24 Adj. EBITDA miss of 5%, lower FY guidance
- Wim Hoste
Tessenderlo FIRST LOOK: 1H adj. EBITDA -26.5%, FY guidance lowered
1H adj EBITDA dropped by 26.5% and was 1% better than our forecast although 5% below consensus. FY adj EBITDA guidance has been lowered from a flat result to a 5-10% drop whilst we and consensus were banking on +2%. Whilst business conditions in a number of end markets are clearly challenging, Tessenderlo is still generating sizeable FCF (close to €100m in 1H). Starting from a very solid balance sheet, capital allocation is a crucial theme in the equity story. We view share buybacks as an excell...
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Stijn Demeester
Tessenderlo/Adhering to a constructive view as cycle turns/BUY
As we revisit the Tessenderlo investment case, we reiterate our BUY recommendation on a target price of €32 per share, from €44 previously. While ongoing macro headwinds are likely to result in a soft 1H24 performance, we expect earnings to recover as of 2025F, driven by selective growth investments. Additionally, we believe Tessenderlo's attractive valuation, strong cash generation and solid balance sheet further warrant a constructive stance.
Tessenderlo Group: 2 directors
Two Directors at Tessenderlo Group bought/sold 1,253,192 shares at 26.050EUR. The significance rating of the trade was 70/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two y...
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
Tessenderlo Solid balance sheet and FCF generation create options
We appreciate the efforts to step up investor communication as evidenced by the recent analyst & asset manager day. Whilst business conditions in a number of end markets are still challenging, we still expect Tessenderlo to generate between € 150-200m FCF per annum in the coming years. Starting from a very solid balance sheet, capital allocation is a crucial theme in the equity story. Tessenderlo has recently embarked upon a new € 69m share buyback program and we view share buybacks as an excell...
- Kristof Samoy
- Michiel Declercq
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Hoste
Tessenderlo FIRST LOOK: Feedback analyst & asset manager day
At the occasion of its analyst & asset manager day in Ham, Tessenderlo reiterated its FY guidance of a flat adjusted EBITDA in FY24, which is about 32% below the peak year of FY22. The net cash position allows to pursue share buybacks, although management made it clear they would prefer to grow the company via additional investments (both organic and inorganic). Tessenderlo is a very diversified group with limited synergies between the various operations. Despite the limited liquidity and diffic...
- Frank Claassen
Tessenderlo - From tailwind to headwind
• Following the weak H2-23 results and prudent outlook of stable EBITDA for 2024, we have lowered our FY24/FY25 EBITDA estimates by 17-19%. • Most divisions are facing headwinds and H1-24 is expected to be down yoy. • We lower our TP from EUR 33 to EUR 28, based on our 2025E SOTP (was 2024E). Hold maintained.
- Wim Hoste
Tessenderlo Model update post FY23 results
We have lowered our FY24 and FY25 adjusted EBITDA forecasts by respectively 25% and 21% following weaker than expected FY23 results and FY24 guidance. Tessenderlo is a very diversified group with limited synergies between the various operations. Valuation is clearly attractive and we expect the strong balance sheet will prompt the board to decide on an extension of the current share buyback program, allowing the company to benefit from the low share price to catch up additional stock. We maintai...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
Tessenderlo Conference call feedback
Below are the highlights from the conference call. Tessenderlo posted much weaker than expected FY23 results with adjusted EBITDA down about 32% y/y (on a proforma basis) and c 15% below our and 16% below consensus. Key shortfalls were in BioValorization and the Machines & Technologies divisions. The FY24 calls for flat adjusted EBITDA which is about 27% below our and consensus forecasts. Tessenderlo is a very diversified group with limited synergies between the various operations. We consider v...
- ING Helpdesk
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Hoste
Tessenderlo FIRST LOOK: disappointing FY23 results and FY24 outlook
Tessenderlo posted much weaker than expected FY23 results with adjusted EBITDA down about 32% y/y (on a proforma basis) and c 15% below our and 16% below consensus. Key shortfalls were in BioValorization and the Machines & Technologies divisions. The FY24 calls for flat adjusted EBITDA which is about 27% below our and consensus forecasts. Tessenderlo is a very diversified group with limited synergies between the various operations. We consider valuation to be attractive but the poor FY23 results...
- Frank Claassen
Tessenderlo - A clear miss in H2 and no improvement in 2024
• The H2-23 results were a clear miss to our and consensus expectation and the outlook of no improvement in 2024 EBITDA means that a reset in estimates is necessary. • We will have to reduce our FY24/25 EBITDA estimates by more than 20% and consensus even more.• Awaiting more details in today's conference call, we currently put our estimates and TP (was EUR 33) under review.
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