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Olfa Taamallah ... (+2)
  • Olfa Taamallah
  • Yan Derocles

Safran : Slight upward revision of FY 2024 EBIT guidance (expected), b...

>Q3 2024 sales bang in line with consensus estimates - Q3 2024 sales came out bang in line with consensus expectations at € 6,639m (ODDO BHF: € 6,621m; company compiled css: € 6,634m), showing a 13.8% l-f-l increase. In details, i/ Propulsion sales were up 9.2% l-f-l to € 3,339m thanks to a solid civil aftermarket growth of 20.5% (vs 19% expected) still driven by Leap service activities and to a lesser extent to spare parts for CFM56 and high thrust engines benef...

Olfa Taamallah ... (+2)
  • Olfa Taamallah
  • Yan Derocles

Safran : Slight upward revision of FY 2024 EBIT guidance (expected), b...

>Q3 2024 sales bang in line with consensus estimates - Q3 2024 sales came out bang in line with consensus expectations at € 6,639m (ODDO BHF: € 6,621m; company compiled css: € 6,634m), showing a 13.8% l-f-l increase. In details, i/ Propulsion sales were up 9.2% l-f-l to € 3, 339m thanks to a solid civil aftermarket growth of 20.5% (vs 19% expected) still driven by Leap service activities and to a lesser extent to spare parts for CFM56 and high thrust engines bene...

Alvaro del Pozo
  • Alvaro del Pozo

SAFRAN: VENTAS 3T’24 (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

Rdos. 3T'24 vs 3T'23: Ventas: 6.639 M euros (+14,0% vs +13,9% BS(e) y +13,9% consenso); Rdos. 9meses'24 vs 9meses'23: Ventas: 19.686 M euros (+17,4% vs +17,4% BS(e) y +17,4% consenso).

Julian Dobrovolschi
  • Julian Dobrovolschi

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 10/10/2024

Thanks to unit revenue that has proven more resilient than anticipated, real discipline on capacity and a decline in the fuel bill, we expect margins to recover, especially for the legacies. IAG remains our top pick. We are upgrading Air France-KLM and Lufthansa to Neutral and downgrading Ryanair to Underperform as well as WizzAir on Neutral. - ...

Julian Dobrovolschi
  • Julian Dobrovolschi

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 10/10/2024

Grâce à une recette unitaire qui se tient mieux que prévu, une discipline capacitaire notable et une baisse de la facture carburant, nous anticipons un rebond des marges tout particulièrement pour les majors. IAG reste notre valeur préférée. Nous relevons Air France-KLM et Lufthansa à Neutre et abaissons Ryanair à Sous-performance ainsi que Wizz Air à Neutre. - ...

Olfa Taamallah ... (+2)
  • Olfa Taamallah
  • Yan Derocles

Safran : A Q3 2024 that should demonstrate the robustness of the model...

>Q3 in line with previous quarters - We forecast Q3 sales in line with previous quarters despite a more demanding comparison base. Sales should grow by 13.7% to € 6,621m notably driven by i/ growth of 19%e in the aftermarket segment for USD-denominated civil engines (after 32.3% in Q2 and 27.3% in Q1 but vs 39% in Q3 2023) still driven by the services activities but also spare parts for CFM56 which benefit from the price hikes introduced on 1 August; ii/ strong growth...

Olfa Taamallah ... (+2)
  • Olfa Taamallah
  • Yan Derocles

Safran : Un T3 2024 qui démontrera la solidité du modèle. Le risque su...

>Un T3 dans la lignée des trimestres précédents - Nous tablons sur un CA T3 dans la lignée des trimestres précédents modulo une base de comparaison plus élevée. Le CA devrait croitre de 13.7% à 6 621 M€ porté notamment par i/ une croissance de 19%e de l’après-vente pour moteurs civils en USD (après 32.3% au T2 et 27.3% au T1 mais vs 39% au T3 2023) toujours tirée par les activités de services mais aussi par les pièces détachées CFM56 qui ont bénéficié de...

Olfa Taamallah ... (+2)
  • Olfa Taamallah
  • Yan Derocles

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 09/26/2024

‘Soft landing’... the term is in vogue and we think it aptly describes the current situation in the energy market. After a period of “excess profits”, the fundamentals are back in favour and prompt us to revise down our estimates for energy prices. - Alongside renewable energies, pockets of sustainable value creation are emerging for players capable of capitalising on the structural growth in volatility on the electricity markets but which are nonetheless trading at a discount In the U...

Olfa Taamallah ... (+2)
  • Olfa Taamallah
  • Yan Derocles

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 09/26/2024

tonies is a pioneer in the children’s audio entertainment and educational industry, offering a screen-free and interactive listening experience (stories and music) through its Toniebox and Tonies figurines. With a proven track record of rapid international growth, portfolio expansion and strong brand recognition mainly in the DACH region (Germany, Austria and Switzerland) and North America, we see in the coming years: 1/ further strong revenue increases (CAGR 2024-2026e of 25%) with a...

Olfa Taamallah ... (+2)
  • Olfa Taamallah
  • Yan Derocles

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 26/09/2024

“Soft landing”… le terme est à la mode et nous pensons qu’il caractérise bien la situation du marché de l’énergie aujourd’hui. Après une parenthèse de « surprofits », les fondamentaux reprennent leur droit et nous conduisent à réviser en baisse nos hypothèses de prix de l’énergie. A côté du renouvelable, des poches pérennes de création de valeur apparaissent pour les acteurs capables de profiter de la croissance structurelle de la volatilité des marchés électriques et qui souffrent ma...

Olfa Taamallah ... (+2)
  • Olfa Taamallah
  • Yan Derocles

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 26/09/2024

tonies is a pioneer in the children’s audio entertainment and educational industry, offering a screen-free and interactive listening experience (stories and music) through its Toniebox and Tonies figurines. With a proven track record of rapid international growth, portfolio expansion and strong brand recognition mainly in the DACH region (Germany, Austria and Switzerland) and North America, we see in the coming years: 1/ further strong revenue increases (CAGR 2024-2026e of 25%) with a...

Olfa Taamallah ... (+2)
  • Olfa Taamallah
  • Yan Derocles

ODDO : Impact de la grève Boeing sur les fournisseurs : attention au F...

>Au 14ème jour de grève - Les 30 000 employés du syndicat International Association of Machinists (IAM 751) entrent dans leur 14ème jour de grève (votée à 96%) après avoir notamment demandé une hausse de salaires de 40% étalée sur 4 années et l’engagement d’une production du prochain avion de Boeing à Seattle. L’acceptation de ces demandes se matérialiserait par une progression de la base de coûts d’environ 1.4 Md$e. De son côté, Boeing avait proposé une hausse de sal...

Olfa Taamallah ... (+2)
  • Olfa Taamallah
  • Yan Derocles

ODDO : Impact of the Boeing strike on suppliers: watch out for FCF in ...

>On the 14th day of the strike - The c30,000 employees belonging to the International Association of Machinists (IAM 751) are entering their 14th day of the strike (96% of votes in favour) after demanding a wage increase of 40% spread over 4 years and a commitment that Boeing’s next aircraft will be produced in Seattle. Agreeing to these demands would result in an estimated increase in the cost base of around $ 1.4bn. For its part, Boeing had offered a wage increase o...

Oliver Metzger ... (+2)
  • Oliver Metzger
  • Wim Gille

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 18/09/2024

La prochaine acquisition de Campari pourrait être en Inde et intervenir rapidement, selon nous. Rapidement d’abord pour que le groupe puisse pleinement profiter du dynamisme de ce marché. Rapidement ensuite pour se prémunir du ralentissement actuel des liqueurs et apéritifs (L&A) en Europe, segment dont il est historiquement très dépendant. Malgré l’intérêt stratégique du marché indien, une telle opération de M&A pourrait se révéler risquée en s’ajoutant aux multiples défis opérationn...

Oliver Metzger ... (+2)
  • Oliver Metzger
  • Wim Gille

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 09/18/2024

Campari’s next acquisition might be in India and could materialise quickly, in our view. Speed is of the essence: first so that the group can take full advantage of the dynamic growth of this market; and second to guard against the current slowdown in liqueurs and aperitifs (L&A) in Europe, a segment on which it has historically been very reliant. Despite the strategic value that the Indian market offers, such an M&A deal could prove risky by adding to the multiple operational challen...

Olfa Taamallah ... (+2)
  • Olfa Taamallah
  • Yan Derocles

ODDO : Rumeurs de cessez-le-feu en Ukraine: attention au sociétés expo...

>Des rumeurs de cessez-le-feu en Ukraine qui se multiplient - Un article de Bloomberg a ravivé hier les rumeurs de discussions pouvant amener à une fin négociée du conflit en Ukraine. Sans citer de sources, les journalistes rapportaient que certains alliés commençaient à discuter de la manière dont le conflit pouvait se terminer et que la période entre les élections présidentielles américaines et l’investiture (entre novembre et janvier) pourrait offrir une fenêtre d’...

Olfa Taamallah ... (+2)
  • Olfa Taamallah
  • Yan Derocles

ODDO : Rumours of a ceasefire in Ukraine: watch out for groups exposed...

>Rumours of a ceasefire in Ukraine are multiplying - An article in Bloomberg yesterday revived rumours of talks aimed at negotiating an end to the conflict in Ukraine. Without citing any sources, journalists report that certain allies were beginning to discuss the manner in which the conflict could be brought to an end and that the period between the US presidential elections and investiture (between November and January) could offer a window of opportunity. Last Sund...

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