reports
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Indian Telcos Q1 FY25 review: Slower mobile with modest rise in margi...
Indian mobile revenue rose steadily despite slowing this quarter due to softer ARPU trend. Both Bharti and Jio continue to take share from Vodafone Idea again. Mobile EBITDA kept ahead of topline with all three seeing YoY improvements in margin. Overall, Bharti remained ahead on both metrics.
- Chris Hoare
Bharti Airtel (Neutral, TP: INR 1,500, +3%) Bharti Global to acquire ...
Bharti Enterprise's investment arm, Bharti Global, has sought to acquire 24.5% stake in BT from Altice UK. Although Bharti Airtel is separately owned by Bharti Enterprise (through Bharti Telecom), we share our thoughts on why we perceive this to be a likely overhang on Bharti Airtel.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Indian Mobile Bharti follows Jio with price hikes, but perhaps not as...
Bharti has immediately followed Jio's price hike announcement, with an announcement that it is set to raise its mobile prices by between 10% and 21%. We calculate the average increase is slightly lower than Jio. The change would be effective from 3rd July too which means the full impact of the tariff hike would only be felt from Q3 FY25.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Mobile Price hikes priced in?
Jio leads India's first mobile hike since December 2021; we expect peers to follow. The announcement was made after the conclusion of the spectrum auction where Jio only participated modestly. This is thus structurally positive. However, that both Bharti and VIL are trading down on this news is indicative of how much good news is already priced into Indian mobile. Our thoughts below.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Mobile India's auction concludes - Our final thoughts
India's spectrum auction concluded yesterday with 141.4 MHz of airwaves being sold across the 900 MHz, 1800 MHz, 2100 MHz and 2500 MHz band for INR 113 bn (US$ 1.36bn). Our proprietary spectrum analytics tool (SpectrumHub) suggests that prices paid were largely in line with the reserve prices, and close to our original expectations.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Mobile Indian Spectrum Auction – Day 1 results confirm modest ...
After further ado, India entered its 10th spectrum auction yesterday with 10,523 MHz of airwaves worth INR 963bn (US$ 11.3 bn), at reserve prices. While Jio has no renewals until 2030, both Bharti and Vodafone Idea have some of their 900 MHz and 1800 MHz band up for renewals this year, in six and two circles respectively. Preliminary analysis suggests that bidding will take on a modest tone unlike in 2022, as validated by Day 1's results, and as we expected. Our thoughts below.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Mobile VIL Capital Increase – should you participate and what ...
Sometimes the markets behave in ways that appear irrational. VIL having sufficient market cap to launch an INR 200bn ($2.4bn) capital increase despite (in our view) being a failing business is one example. But what does it mean for Bharti, Jio and Indus?
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Indus Towers (Neutral, pt INR 265, +18%) AMT sells Indian Towers - Im...
American Tower ("AMT") has agreed to sell its Indian Towers business, ATC India, to an affiliate of Brookfield Asset Management, with the deal expected to close in 2H 2024. The transaction values the Indian business at US$ 2 bn which implies a 5.6x EV/EBITDA, 17% above Indus’ trading multiple, but in line with our target multiple.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
EM Telcos Validating the Enterprise thesis
In this note we revisit and update our thesis that Enterprise in EM is following an S-Curve. Key new work shows that as a result, absolute incremental Enterprise revenue in China has doubled each year for the past 3 years. This is why overall Telco revenues have sharply accelerated. We show the other countries/ stocks where the early signs are of the same thing happening.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
New Street: Indian Mobile What to expect in 2023: Enterprise drives g...
Bharti has performed extremely well over the last 2 years. While we remain bullish, we think that some of the near term upside is priced in, especially on the consumer mobile side. We stay bullish long term but having had a good run into the end of the year, we expect the stock to take a breather in the near term.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Bharti Airtel (Buy, TP: INR1,300, +85%) Thoughts after th...
Bharti’s Q1 figures were strong, pretty much across the board. The stock has traded sideways for 6-9 months, but we think with the 5G auction now over, the conditions are right for the stock to resume its rally as we think expectations are likely to continue to rise, and in anticipation of the next price increase.
- Aliasgar Shakir
MOSL: INDUS TOWERS: Higher provisions impact profitability; receivabl...
INDUS TOWERS: Higher provisions impact profitability; receivables remain a key monitorable (INDUSTOW IN, Mkt Cap USD7b, CMP INR206, TP INR195, 6% Downside, Neutral) INDUSTOW saw an eventful 1QFY23, with a muted performance. Adjusted EBITDA fell 1% QoQ. It finally saw a MSA renewal, concluding with an annual escalation of 2.5%, but 9% exit allowance and an estimated 12-15% cut in rental, which could dilute earnings. The INR12.3b provision for doubtful debt and receivables of INR62b, of whic...
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