reports
Polar Capital Holdings: 1 director
A director at Polar Capital Holdings sold 16,000 shares at 620p and the significance rating of the trade was 59/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...
- Paul Bryant
Q3 AUM +6%, performance fees up, share buyback
AUM increased by £1.7bn (+6%) over Q3 of FY26 (Oct 25 - Dec 25) to £28.4bn. Investment performance was the driver, contributing +£1.7bn (+6.4% of AUM). This was impressive, with several larger strategies outperforming benchmarks, most notably Technology (c. 51% of AUM) which has outperformed the benchmark Dow Jones Global Technology index by some distance over the last quarter, one year, three years, and since fund inception. FY26 forecasts have been adjusted upwards slightly in line with the h...
- Paul Bryant
Impax Asset Management: Q1-26 AUM -7% as expected, forecasts unchanged
As expected, AUM fell 7% over Q1'26 (1 Oct 25 - 31 Dec 25) to £24.2bn. Investment performance was marginally negative at -£0.2bn with net outflows of £1.6bn. Impax’s FY25 results commentary in late-Nov 25 had said that net outflows were likely to persist in the first part of FY26, with net flows improving over the year. Net flows reflect current global trends in sustainable investing. LSEG Lipper ‘responsible investing’ data shows equity funds suffering outflows for most of 2025 (equities make ...
- Paul Bryant
Impax AM - stabilising after tough FY25, with huge opportunities
FY25 was disappointing as AUM fell 30% to £26.1bn, heavily impacted by the loss of £6.2bn of St James’s Place mandates. Yet, Impax’s current share price seems to price in further decline. The PER is just 10.9, nearly the lowest in the sector, despite net cash of £68m (31% of market cap), no debt, and the group generating £20m PAT in a rare bad year. The AUM fall was responsible for a y-o-y decline in key financial metrics. Revenue fell 17% to £142m; adjusted operating profit 36% to £34m (adjust...
- Paul Bryant
H1 growth tees Polar up for very strong FY26
Polar’s +25% AUM growth rate over H1-26 was far stronger than all peers and almost five times the sector-median (page 4). AUM opened on 1 Apr 25 at £21.4bn, near the trough of the ‘tariff turmoil’ dip. It then jumped £5.3bn over H1 to £26.7bn, as markets recovered and Polar’s returns (+29%) beat broad market indexes by some distance (MSCI ACWI GBP: +15%). AUM has jumped another 6% between 30 Sep 25 and 7 Nov 25, and we raise our forecasts (page 15). While average AUM of H1-26 was only 4% high...
- Paul Bryant
Bumper Q2-26, AUM +15%; Forecasts & value raised
AUM jumped £3.5bn (15.3%) to £26.7bn over Q2 of FY26 (1 Jul 25 – 30 Sep 25). Investment performance contributed £3.6bn (Q1: +£2.7bn) with net flows marginally negative at -£58m (Q1: -£0.6bn). The net flow improvement is particularly impressive given that it was a quarter of heavy outflows for equity funds more generally (page 3). Mark to market performance fee profits, net of staff allocations, were £15.0m on 30 Sep 25 (most PFs crystallise in December). The pace of AUM growth has seen end-H1 A...
- Paul Bryant
AUM flat in Q4, ‘solid evidence flows are stabilising’
AUM closed FY25 (1 Oct 24 - 30 Sep 25) on £26.1bn, above our previous forecast of £25.0bn. In Q4 (Jul – Sep), investment performance contributed +£1.4bn (+5.3%), offset by net outflows of -£1.4bn, in a quarter of heavy outflows for equity funds more generally (page 3). Impax’s outflows were slightly up on the previous quarter (-£1.3bn), but were a marked improvement over H1, which saw £10.2bn of net outflows, dominated by the loss of £6.2bn of St James’s Place mandates. We make very minor tweak...
- Paul Bryant
Strong start to FY26, AUM +8.2% in Q1
AUM was up £1.8bn (+8.2%) over Q1 of FY26, from £21.4bn on 31 Mar 25 to £23.2bn on 30 Jun. Investment returns were the driver, contributing +£2.7bn (+12.5%). This was impressive compared to generic benchmarks such as the MSCI ACWI (GBP), which returned +5.1%. Net flows were -£632m and a return of capital to investors in the Polar Capital Global Financials Trust reduced AUM by -£280m. In our recent note covering Polar’s FY25 results, we detailed our investment case and valuation, with our DCF m...
- Paul Bryant
AUM +3% in Q3 on strong markets and acquisition
AUM increased 3% over Q3 of FY25 (year-end 30 Sep 25) to £26.1bn on 30 Jun 25. Investment performance boosted AUM by +£1.0bn, or 4% of opening AUM. The Sky Harbor acquisition in the fixed income space closed on 1 Apr 25, adding £1.1bn. Net flows were negative at -£1.3bn, but positive in the month of June - a material improvement on recent quarters. Impax said the improving net flow situation “reflected strong institutional client commitments and fresh momentum in our wholesale channels in Europ...
- Paul Bryant
Core profits exceed forecast, AUM +6% in Q1’26
The period of Polar’s FY25 (1 Apr 24 – 31 Mar 25) was horrific for many asset managers – but not for Polar. It was one of only two in our peer group to record net inflows (page 4), with heavy outflows commonplace. Polar’s AUM fell 2% over the year, with a sharp decline in Q4 on falling markets. Investment performance was -£495m, net flows +£123m, and fund closures -£111m. Post year-end, AUM has bounced back, up 6% since 31 Mar to £22.6bn (page 3). Gross income increased 14% y-o-y to £226.1m, ...
- Paul Bryant
Tough H1, but shares detached from fundamentals
Given previous updates, the impact of challenges faced in H1 is no surprise. AUM fell 32% to £25.3bn, with half of the fall due to two cancelled (low margin) St James’s Place (SJP) mandates. Revenue fell 11% y-o-y to £76.5m, adjusted operating profit dropped 21% to £20.5m, and investors can expect a fall in full-year dividend. However, Impax is hardly the disaster implied by its share price decline: down 31% over six months and by 68% over 12 months – leaving its shares on a forward PE of just ...
- Paul Bryant
Markets hit AUM in Q4 of FY25, but net flows hold up
AUM fell by £2.4bn (10%) in Q4 of FY25 (to 31 Mar 25), from £23.8bn to £21.4bn. Market movements, investment performance and currency fluctuations accounted for nearly all of the decline (£2.3bn). This was unsurprising considering the heavy falls in technology sector stocks (Dow Jones Global Technology Index: -11%), and Polar’s reporting currency, GBP, strengthening 3% over the US$, depressing the £-value of US$-denominated assets. Pleasingly though, net flows were only marginally negative in Q...
- Paul Bryant
Outlook hit by markets, but price fall looks extreme
AUM fell to £25.3bn on 31 March ‘25 (Q2, FY25), down 25.7% from £34.1bn on 31 Dec ‘24, with £7.8bn of net outflows and £0.99bn negative investment performance. We knew net outflows would be significant in the quarter due to the previously announced termination of a £5.1bn St James’s Place mandate being reflected in Q2, and some other smaller mandate losses. Investment performance was strong relative to broader market indices at -3.3% of average AUM. US markets experienced particularly heavy de...
- Paul Bryant
AUM fall as expected and profits seen holding up
Ahead of its AGM, Impax has confirmed AUM of £28.5bn on 28 Feb 25. This is close to our expectations as on 31 Dec 24 AUM stood at £34.1bn, and we already knew that the termination of a £5.1bn James’s Place mandate would impact the current quarter (Q2 of FY25). We expect AUM to jump again soon by c. £1.3bn once the Sky Harbor acquisition closes. At the same time Impax reported an acceleration of the efficiency programme. Over 30 roles have been cut since 1 Oct 24 (c. 10% of headcount). This redu...
- Paul Bryant
Q3 AUM +5%, forecasts up on performance fee jump
AUM grew £1.1bn or 4.9% over Q3 of FY25 (Oct 24 - Dec 24) to £23.8bn. This was on the back of a strong investment performance, contributing +£1.47bn despite a Dec 24 market pullback, and modest outflows of £0.26bn, mostly in Oct 24 when equity funds saw widespread outflows ahead of the UK budget. Net flows were positive over the nine months of FY25-to-date (+£0.21bn), and in calendar-2024, Polar was a standout leader among London-listed peers in attracting and retaining AUM (see page 2). The For...
- Paul Bryant
AUM hit by outflows in Q1-25, down 8%
AUM fell 8.3% over Q1 of FY25 (1 Oct 24 - 31 Dec 24) from £37.2bn to £34.1bn. Net outflows were -£2.4bn with investment performance -£0.66bn. The termination of Impax’s smaller mandate with St James’s Place (announced Oct 24) contributed to the outflows (see also below), as well as redemptions driven by industry consolidation in the APAC region. But pleasingly, Impax has continued to see a slow-down in outflows from its largest European distribution partner, BNP Paribas Asset Management, and fro...
- Paul Bryant
SJP ends mandate, but price fall looks unwarranted
Impax has received notice from St. James's Place Unit Trust Group Limited that its mandate to manage the Sustainable & Responsible Equity Fund (SRE) is to be terminated from February 2025, subject to EGM. This is a blow to top-line AUM, with SRE making up c. £5.2bn (30 Nov 24) or c. 14% of total AUM of £37.2bn (30 Sep 24); although the SRE fund was clearly a low-fee-margin account at around 24bps compared to the overall Impax average fee margin of 44.3bps. Therefore, the impact on revenue is fa...
- Paul Bryant
Solid FY24 results, triggers to reignite growth visible
AUM was down a touch by 0.5% in FY24 (1 Oct 23 - 30 Sep 24) to £37.2bn. Net outflows totalled £5.8bn, largely offset by a positive investment performance of +£5.3bn and a contribution of +£0.3bn from the acquisition of fixed-income specialist Absalon Capital Management in Q4. With average AUM also slightly down, revenue fell 4.7% to £170.1m. Adjusted operating costs were firmly under control and decreased by 2% from £120.3m to £117.4m, helped also by Impax’s incentive-based remuneration model....
- Paul Bryant
H1-25 revenue and profits jump on higher AUM
AUM increased £0.8bn (+4%) in H1-25 to £22.7bn on 30 Sep 24. Net flows added +£472m and investment performance +£323m. This was a highly creditable performance relative to peers, with Polar one of only two London-listed asset managers to record positive net flows (page 3). Furthermore, post-interim-results, AUM has increased another 5% to £23.9bn on 8 Nov 24. Polar’s prospects remain strong, despite current headwinds for active managers which we believe will abate (page 16), and ongoing market ...
- Paul Bryant
H1 AUM +4% from quality manager with 8.6% yield
AUM increased 4% over H1-25 (1 Apr 24 – 30 Sep 24) to £22.7bn from £21.9bn on 31 Mar 24. It was a half-year of two quarters with Q1 AUM up by 7.4% (net inflows: +£644m, investment performance: +£978m), while a more challenging and volatile market environment saw Q2 AUM down 3.5% (net outflows: -£172m, investment performance: -£655m). The marginally negative net flows of Q2 (0.7% of AUM) were not a surprise for a period of investor nervousness, with UK investors withdrawing from equity funds in ...
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