reports
- Chris Hoare
South Korean Telcos Q1 25 review: Peers expected to benefit near-term...
Margins are improving as operators execute on cost discipline and shift away from less profitable operations. As capex intensity falls, cash flow is rising and so therefore are dividends or buybacks; LG is expected to announce a buyback in 2H. Thus we are confident of further re-rating and our recent trip reinforced this view. Following the data breach at SKT, near term results are likely to favour KT and LG Uplus. KT remains our preferred pick and is one of our top picks in GEM Telcos.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos M&A Cycle in-bound; buy the targets
With sentiment, leverage and cash flow all improving for EM Telcos we think we are approaching the point of the cycle where M&A is going to become more prevalent, and shift from bearish (in-market consolidation), to bullish (out of footprint). Investors should consider building portfolios based on likely targets. Who are they?
- Chris Hoare
Japanese Telcos Q4 FY24 review: Inflationary telco market
Japan’s mobile sector accelerated again in Q4 and we think is heading to above inflation. With both KDDI and DCM recently announcing price increases the environment is increasingly benign and should be helped by NTT’s recent acquisition of SBI Sumishin Net Bank. Our recent trip to Japan highlighted how positive the environment is; NTT stays our preferred pick, with KDDI closely behind.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Bull market continues – NSR GEM Top-10 June...
It was another very strong month for our picks as the EM Telco bull market continues. As we have been arguing for some time EM Telco is a much better space than it used to be, and the market has now started to understand this. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
- Felix Fischer
Asia Monthly – May 2025 In Review - Lucror Analytics
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in May 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on devel...
M04 MGM CHINA HOLDINGS LIMITED
MAS MELCO RESORTS & ENTERTAINMENT LIMITED SPONSORED ADR
JSWSTEEL JSW STEEL LIMITED
00813 SHIMAO GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
XGH CHINA WATER AFFAIRS GROUP LIMITED
00817 ENN ENERGY HOLDINGS LIMITED
CHINA JINMAO HOLDINGS GROUP LIMITED
01238 CENTRAL CHINA REAL ESTATE LIMITED
00992 POWERLONG REAL ESTATE HOLDINGS LTD.
VED LENOVO GROUP LIMITED
02777 VEDANTA RESOURCES PLC
03383 GUANGZHOU R&F PROPERTIES CO. LTD. CLASS H
TATASTEEL AGILE GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
4755 TATA STEEL LIMITED
MEDC RAKUTEN INC.
ICT PT MEDCO ENERGI INTERNASIONAL TBK
01098 INTERNATIONAL CONTAINER TERMINAL SERVICES INC.
00603 ROAD KING INFRASTRUCTURE LIMITED
OL5 CHINA OIL & GAS GROUP LTD.
Z25 SHUI ON LAND LTD.
SXC YANLORD LAND GROUP LIMITED
03377 SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
00880 SINO-OCEAN GROUP HOLDING LTD.
INDY SJM HOLDINGS LIMITED
8WY PT INDIKA ENERGY TBK
01668 WYNN MACAU LTD.
WFG1 CHINA SOUTH CITY HOLDINGS LIMITED
SCNR WEST CHINA CEMENT LTD.
01030 SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
00884 SEAZEN GROUP LTD.
JPFA CIFI HOLDINGS (GROUP) CO. LTD.
00142 JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
600803 FIRST PACIFIC CO. LTD.
JFC ENN ECOLOGICAL HOLDINGS (A)
KIJA JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP.
BIOCON PT KAWASAN INDUSTRI JABABEKA TBK CLASS A
9984 BIOCON LIMITED
SM SOFTBANK GROUP CORP.
00405 SM INVESTMENTS CORPORATION
KOU YUEXIU REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
VLL KWG GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
00656 VISTA LAND & LIFESCAPES INC.
ADANIPORTS FOSUN INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
PWON ADANI PORTS & SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONE LTD.
ICBP PT PAKUWON JATI TBK
TBIG PT INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR TBK
599A PT TOWER BERSAMA INFRASTRUCTURE TBK
TATAMOTORS SANDS CHINA LTD.
ADANITRANS TATA MOTORS LIMITED
POWR ADANI TRANSMISSION LTD.
AZRE PT CIKARANG LISTRINDO TBK
01112 AZURE POWER GLOBAL LTD.
VHM HEALTH AND HAPPINESS (H&H) INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
MSC VINHOMES
ADANIGREEN STUDIO CITY INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS ADS
00017 ADANI GREEN ENERGY LIMITED
RNW NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
PGEO RENEW ENERGY GLOBAL PLC
PT. PERTAMINA GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
- Chris Hoare
GEM Telcos: Consolidation – THE theme driving improved trends for EM T...
Earlier this month we published on how Global EM Telco Capex is falling rapidly, in large part driven by consolidation. On average EM Telco markets have fallen from a peak of 7 players to under 3. We expect many to end up with 2, or even a single network. How much further far might this cut capex?
- Chris Hoare
Takeaways from Meetings with the Japanese Telcos + Rakuten in Tokyo. D...
We met with all 3 of the incumbent Japanese Telcos & Rakuten in Tokyo last week, as well as visiting Osaka to talk to NTT in more depth about IOWN. Overall, we remain bullish on Japanese telcos operationally and buyers of all three incumbents. NTT remains our top pick followed by KDDI.
- Chris Hoare
Takeaways from Meetings with the Korean Telcos in Seoul. KT to KRW 105...
We met with all 3 of the Korean Telcos in Seoul over the last couple of days. All 3 remain committed to “Value-up”. However, far the biggest impact is on KT who’s cash flow is dramatically improving. LG is also likely to have a strong year, and we think profitability has turned a corner.
- Leonard Law
- Trung Nguyen
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – 1Q25: EBITDA Stable At -0.8% qoq
In 1Q25, the combined EBITDA of Indonesia’s big telcos dropped 6% yoy, but was stable qoq. Combined 1Q25 NPAT was also slightly lower (2% yoy). Among the big three telcos, ISAT and Telkomsel (majority owned by TLKM) gained market share in 1Q25 (based on EBITDA) vs 4Q24. We are monitoring TLKM’s upcoming AGM (27 May) as we expect a potential dividend yield of around 7% (assuming an 80% payout). Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the telecommunications sector with ISAT as our top pick.
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Chris Hoare
Rakuten (Reduce, ¥510, -42%) Q1 25 Quick Take: Mixed, mobile momentum...
Profits disappointed despite revenue being 1% ahead of expectations, partly driven by one-off non cash hedging costs. Mobile remains weak as sequential improvement in MNO revenue slowed materially, as net adds slowed and ARPU fell sequentially
- Chris Hoare
KT Corp (Buy, KRW 85,000, +64%) Q1 25 Quick Take: Benefiting from cos...
KT reported strong profit growth as it benefits from the hefty headcount reduction programme undertaken in Q4, and despite a softer topline, a result of its conscious effort to shift away from lower-margin B2B businesses. Both EBITDA (+12%) and EBIT (+36%) were up sharply. None of this is reflected in the valuation of 8x FY25 P/E and 4.4% dividend yield, the stock remains one of our Top Picks with a KRW 85,000 price target.
- Chris Hoare
LG Uplus (Buy, KRW 19,000, +53%) Q1 25 Quick Take: Decent bottom-line...
LG Uplus printed a solid profit beat, ahead of expectations by 7% on better service revenue and EBITDA inflecting back to growth, as margins were better managed this quarter. We continue to believe its shareholder remuneration is attractive (5.6% dividend yield + potential buyback announcement in 2Q25). We stay Buyers with a KRW 19k price target.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos Capex in steep decline; underpins EFCF growth
We analyze the capex history & outlook for Global EM Telcos. For this group capex is falling rapidly (-12% in 2024 in US$) as competitive intensity improves and markets consolidate. Excluding China and India, EM Telco capex is already down 23% from peak.
- Felix Fischer
Asia Monthly – April 2025 In Review - Lucror Analytics
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in April 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on dev...
M04 MGM CHINA HOLDINGS LIMITED
MAS MELCO RESORTS & ENTERTAINMENT LIMITED SPONSORED ADR
JSWSTEEL JSW STEEL LIMITED
00813 SHIMAO GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
XGH CHINA WATER AFFAIRS GROUP LIMITED
00817 ENN ENERGY HOLDINGS LIMITED
CHINA JINMAO HOLDINGS GROUP LIMITED
01238 CENTRAL CHINA REAL ESTATE LIMITED
00992 POWERLONG REAL ESTATE HOLDINGS LTD.
VED LENOVO GROUP LIMITED
02777 VEDANTA RESOURCES PLC
03383 GUANGZHOU R&F PROPERTIES CO. LTD. CLASS H
TATASTEEL AGILE GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
4755 TATA STEEL LIMITED
MEDC RAKUTEN INC.
ICT PT MEDCO ENERGI INTERNASIONAL TBK
01098 INTERNATIONAL CONTAINER TERMINAL SERVICES INC.
00603 ROAD KING INFRASTRUCTURE LIMITED
OL5 CHINA OIL & GAS GROUP LTD.
Z25 SHUI ON LAND LTD.
SXC YANLORD LAND GROUP LIMITED
03377 SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
00880 SINO-OCEAN GROUP HOLDING LTD.
INDY SJM HOLDINGS LIMITED
8WY PT INDIKA ENERGY TBK
01668 WYNN MACAU LTD.
WFG1 CHINA SOUTH CITY HOLDINGS LIMITED
SCNR WEST CHINA CEMENT LTD.
01030 SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
00884 SEAZEN GROUP LTD.
JPFA CIFI HOLDINGS (GROUP) CO. LTD.
00142 JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
600803 FIRST PACIFIC CO. LTD.
JFC ENN ECOLOGICAL HOLDINGS (A)
KIJA JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP.
BIOCON PT KAWASAN INDUSTRI JABABEKA TBK CLASS A
9984 BIOCON LIMITED
SM SOFTBANK GROUP CORP.
00405 SM INVESTMENTS CORPORATION
KOU YUEXIU REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
VLL KWG GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
00656 VISTA LAND & LIFESCAPES INC.
ADANIPORTS FOSUN INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
PWON ADANI PORTS & SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONE LTD.
ICBP PT PAKUWON JATI TBK
TBIG PT INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR TBK
599A PT TOWER BERSAMA INFRASTRUCTURE TBK
TATAMOTORS SANDS CHINA LTD.
ADANITRANS TATA MOTORS LIMITED
POWR ADANI TRANSMISSION LTD.
AZRE PT CIKARANG LISTRINDO TBK
01112 AZURE POWER GLOBAL LTD.
VHM HEALTH AND HAPPINESS (H&H) INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
MSC VINHOMES
ADANIGREEN STUDIO CITY INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS ADS
00017 ADANI GREEN ENERGY LIMITED
RNW NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
PGEO RENEW ENERGY GLOBAL PLC
PT. PERTAMINA GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Still rising – NSR GEM Top-10 May ‘25 Updat...
Despite global volatility our EM Top Picks posted positive returns again in April and now up 34% YTD on average. As we have been arguing for some time EM Telco is a much better space than it used to be and this is now being reflected by the market it seems.
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – 4Q24: NPAT Down Slightly By 2% yoy
Big Telcos’ 4Q24 EBITDA was roughly stable (-0.2%) qoq, but declined slightly by 4% yoy Meanwhile, combined 4Q24 net profit fell slightly by 2% yoy, but rose 11% qoq. During 4Q24, EXCL slightly increased its market share (based on EBITDA) among the top three telcos. We downgrade the telecommunications sector to MARKET WEIGHT from OVERWEIGHT as we expect TLKM, the parent company of Telkomsel (market leader), to book only a slightly moderate top-line growth of 2% yoy in 2025. Our top pick is ISAT.
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
- Paula Ruth
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Sunny Chen
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, April 25, 2025
GREATER CHINA Results Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb12.72/Target: Rmb17.80) 2024: Satisfactory results; expects strong recovery in 2025. Upgrade to BUY. Ningbo Tuopu Group Co (601689 CH/BUY/Rmb50.96/Target: Rmb83.00) 4Q24: Earnings up 38.5% yoy, in line. Maintain BUY with target price unchanged at Rmb83.00. TAL Educational Group (TAL US/BUY/US$9.36/Target: US$14.00) 4QFY25: Earnings miss amid ramped-up investments in AI-powered learning. INDONESIA Sector Telecommun...
IZZ TAL EDUCATION GROUP SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
KKP KIATNAKIN BANK
BBL BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
ISAT INDOSAT
TISCO TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP
300015 AIER EYE HOSPITAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
TOWR PT SARANA MENARA NUSANTARA TBK
TMB TMB BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BH BUMRUNGRAD HOSPITAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BN4 KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
TCAP THANACHART CAPITAL PCL
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
KTB KONTOOR BRANDS
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
SCB SCB X PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Indonesia Daily - Friday, April 25, 2025
Telecommunications: 4Q24: NPAT down slightly by 2% yoy. Downgrade to MARKET WEIGHT. Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp8,475/Target: Rp10,500): 1Q25: Net profit grows 9.8% yoy on the back of NIM expansion. TRADERS’ CORNER Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO IJ): Technical BUY Indosat (ISAT IJ): Technical BUY
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