Valuation dislocation remains – Fourlis shares have returned just c4% ytd underperforming a c10% average return for our non-financials universe, adding to the streak of relative stock underperformance since 2020. The shares have been weighed down particularly since mid-2023 by a confluence of factors including sequential top line deceleration in H2’23 (as pricing taken in the prior year rolled off), the subdued valuation attached to the REIC post IPO, the layer of complexity as the REIC has been...
Valuation dislocation remains – Fourlis shares have returned just c4% ytd underperforming a c10% average return for our non-financials universe, adding to the streak of relative stock underperformance since 2020. The shares have been weighed down particularly since mid-2023 by a confluence of factors including sequential top line deceleration in H2’23 (as pricing taken in the prior year rolled off), the subdued valuation attached to the REIC post IPO, the layer of complexity as the REIC has been...
A director at Fourlis Holdings SA bought 6,000 shares at 4.150EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cle...
EME Equity Market – September 2023 Market performance – positive developments in Romania and Turkey, declines everywhere else. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 3.7% mom in EUR terms and 6.0% mom in USD in September. Romania took the spotlight, with the BET Index advancing 7.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Turkish ISE30 (+4.6% mom). The Polish WIG20 declined the most (-8.7% mom), followed by the Greek ASE, the Hungarian BUX and, finally, the Czech PX (-7.9%, -1.9% and -0.6% mom, respectively).
HEADLINES: • Aselsan: back on a USD growth path (upgraded to BUY) • Huuuge Games: solid cash distribution potential (stays BUY) • InPost: 2Q23 beat on strong volumes; growth maintained in 3Q23 to date; FY23E guidance upgrade POSITIVE • Fourlis: 2Q23 review - decent quarter, supported by recovery at IKEA POSITIVE • AUGA Group: 2Q23 gross profit weaker, but 2H23E seems promising • Polish utilities: politician sees the NABE law being delayed until after the elections NEUTRAL • Romanian banks: wi...
Fourlis Group, is one of the largest trading groups of consumer goods in Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey. Fourlis business activity fields are the retail trading of home furniture and household goods through the IKEA stores in Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria, and retail trading of sporting goods through the INTERSPORT stores in Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey and the Athlete’s Foot stores in Greece and Turkey.
OpCo offered almost for free – Fourlis shares are still some c30% lower than pre-COVID levels, which looks overly punitive in view of 2023e operating profits set to shape just c11% lower than the 2019 mark and to bounce strongly thereafter (2-digit growth) as the pendulum of operating leverage swings back to positive. With the REIC (€211m NAV) just a few months away from getting listed (H2’23), a key re-rating catalyst is finally approaching. Although near-term uncertainty regarding the OpCo bot...
OpCo offered almost for free – Fourlis shares are still some c30% lower than pre-COVID levels, which looks overly punitive in view of 2023e operating profits set to shape just c11% lower than the 2019 mark and to bounce strongly thereafter (2-digit growth) as the pendulum of operating leverage swings back to positive. With the REIC (€211m NAV) just a few months away from getting listed (H2’23), a key re-rating catalyst is finally approaching. Although near-term uncertainty regarding the OpCo bot...
EME Equity Market – March 2023 Market performance – all geographies down in March. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 7.6% mom in EUR terms and 5.7% mom in USD in March. Among a sea of red, Romania’s BET saw the smallest decline (-2.6% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Czech PX Index (-5.5% mom in EUR terms). The Greek ASE and the Hungarian BUX indices saw similar declines (-7.4% and -7.5% mom ,respectively, in EUR terms), while the worst performer for the month was the Turkish ISE30, down 10.5% mo...
HEADLINES: • Fourlis: strong FY22 results, on the back of a normalised retail environment • PGE: 4Q22 results review - weak, but broadly in line with prelims NEUTRAL • Jahez: 2022 financial results review - miss on revenue and EBITDA NEGATIVE • Bank Pekao: issues PLN 750m of senior non-preferred bonds POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: amendments to solidarity tax legislation proposed by Social Democrats • Transgaz: proposes 28% lower-than-expected DPS, looks for legal assistance to recover Gazprom debt ...
2022: The comeback – Greek equities staged an impressive comeback in 2022, outpacing most international markets with a 7% total return vs a 2-digit drop suffered by other European indices (and the S&P in EUR terms). Underpinning the ASE was certainly the better macroeconomic backdrop, with the Greek economy expanding by >5% in 2022 compared with c3% for the EU. Light positioning, healthy corporate profitability and more attractive yield gaps than in other regions were additional supporting facto...
2022: The comeback – Greek equities staged an impressive comeback in 2022, outpacing most international markets with a 7% total return vs a 2-digit drop suffered by other European indices (and the S&P in EUR terms). Underpinning the ASE was certainly the better macroeconomic backdrop, with the Greek economy expanding by >5% in 2022 compared with c3% for the EU. Light positioning, healthy corporate profitability and more attractive yield gaps than in other regions were additional supporting facto...
Greece posted a solid 2022, with another year of strong GDP recovery (+5%), stable politics and a positive performance for the benchmark ASE Index (+4%), despite the negative global backdrop. Looking into 2023E, the key tailwinds are a stronger local macro outlook, a potential upgrade to investment grade status, the possible return of dividends from the banking sector, and continued earnings upgrades from corporates. The key headwinds are the volatility that could be created during a prolonged e...
EME Equity Market – November 2022 Market performance – Turkey does it again, breezing past everyone else, once more, in November. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 11.6% mom in EUR terms and 16.7% mom in USD. The ISE30 index, again, boasted the best performance among our coverage, adding 18.6% mom in EUR terms and 23.9% mom in local currency (lcl) terms. Positive performances were also recorded in the WIG (+14.0% EU /13.0% lcl mom), the BUX (+12.6% EUR/12.0% lcl mom), the BET (+8.4% EUR/8.6% lcl...
HEADLINES: • ADNOC Distribution: pumped for growth (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Bank of Cyprus: strong ROTE uplift on the cards already (stays BUY) • OPAP: 3Q22 review - solid set of results, driven by strong online presence • Public Power Corporation: 3Q keeps company on track to meet FY22E guidance NEUTRAL • Fourlis: 3Q22 review - decent quarter and gross margin recovery • Huuuge Games: adjusted 3Q22 EBITDA in line with the preliminary figure, supportive FY guidance NEUTRAL • Warsaw St...
Industry bumps in 2022 – Greek consumer stocks are down c9% on average since the start of the war in Ukraine, weighed down by de-risking and rising uncertainty regarding the near-term outlook. Stocks more severely affected have been small caps/less liquid names, with OPAP and Jumbo standing out as outperformers thanks to solid operating momentum, more visibility around near-term earnings and – in OPAP’s case – a very compelling 2-digit dividend yield putting a cap on the downside risk. … with ...
Industry bumps in 2022 – Greek consumer stocks are down c9% on average since the start of the war in Ukraine, weighed down by de-risking and rising uncertainty regarding the near-term outlook. Stocks more severely affected have been small caps/less liquid names, with OPAP and Jumbo standing out as outperformers thanks to solid operating momentum, more visibility around near-term earnings and – in OPAP’s case – a very compelling 2-digit dividend yield putting a cap on the downside risk. … with ...
EME Equity Market – October 2022 Market performance – in a positive month across the board, Turkey outperforms yet again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 12.7% mom in EUR terms and 14.4% mom in USD. The ISE30 was, once again, the best-performing index in our coverage, adding 23.4% mom in EUR terms and 25.2% in local currency terms. All the other indices recorded positive performances as well, with the WIG (+14.8% EUR / 11.5% lcl), the BUX (+11.4% EUR / 8.5% lcl) and the ASE (+10.3% EUR) del...
HEADLINES: • Romanian banks: building resilience (Banca Transilvania downgraded to HOLD, BRD-GSG stays HOLD) • Fourlis Group: 2 for the price of 1 (upgraded to BUY) • Santander Bank Polska: strong 3Q22 delivery, largely in line with expectations • CCC: final 2Q22 results below prelims on write-downs of receivables from wholesale partners NEGATIVE • TeraPlast: weak 3Q22 earnings NEGATIVE • Zagreb Stock Exchange: 3Q22 results review - muted performance, despite qoq improvements • Romgaz: 3Q22 ...
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