Downgrading Real Estate to Underweight Our bullish outlook we initiated on November 7, 2023 remains intact; this intermediate-to-long-term outlook is likely to stay in place as long as 4800 support holds on the S&P 500 (implying 7-10% downside) and market dynamics remain healthy. To be clear, we are not calling for a pullback to 4800; we view it as a worst-case scenario for the S&P 500, and we simply want to be prepared for anything. Shorter-term, we remain bullish on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100...
Yesterday's hotter-than-expected CPI report continues to suggest a more restrictive Fed policy than the market has been expecting. This raises the possibility of further consolidation for small- and mid-caps. Meanwhile, large-cap indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100) remain bullish, finding support at their respective 20-day MAs since November 2023; the only question is whether that will continue to be the case, as our main concern remains rising Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY), which have bro...
A director at Aecom sold 2,255 shares at 85.540USD and the significance rating of the trade was 50/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing C...
Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) upgraded AECOM's corporate family rating (CFR) to Ba1 from Ba2, its probability of default rating (PDR) to Ba1-PD from Ba2-PD, and the rating on the senior unsecured notes to Ba2 from Ba3. The ratings on the senior secured bank credit facilities – including the se...
DXY Break Below $101 Suggests Breakouts Likely Coming for Equal-Weight SPX, Dow, and Russell 2000 Ever since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder, our view has been that we cannot be bearish unless a key support level breaks (at the time, that was 4050 on the S&P 500). The S&P 500 is now above 4300-4325 -- a level that, in January this year, we had anticipated would cap upside for 2023. It is increasingly likely that 4300-4325 will act as major support moving forward, and we are bullish as long as the S&...
Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Support We discussed last week (6/21/23 Compass) how consolidation was likely, and so far that is what we have seen with the S&P 500 back to test the 4300-4325 area which we anticipated would cap upside for 2023. We continue to watch short-term support at 4300, and we cannot be bearish if the S&P 500 is above 4300. However, a break below 4300 could bring selling pressure, and potential support levels to watch would be 4165-4200 followed by 4050. Structurally high...
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
U.S. Dollar, 10-Year Treasury Yield, Commodities. Over the past two weeks we have discussed the multitude of signals that either suggest (1) the bear market is over, or (2) this rally is likely to continue. Nothing has changed in terms of these expectations. Chief among the reasons we expect the rally to continue are the breakdowns in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, which we view as possible early topping signals. Commodities and WTI crude oil have continued to consolidate, tho...
Bear Market Rally Continues The market remains in bear market rally mode, and our price target remains the 200-day MAs on the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM), as discussed in last week's Compass (Oct. 25). Longer-term, this is still a bear market until the S&P 500 and IWM can break above their respective YTD downtrends/200-day MAs, and markets could easily test their lows again. With that said, there are signs that suggest breakouts above YTD downtrends/200-day MAs could be coming. Catalysts inc...
Another Bear Market Rally Begins The bear market rally we have been discussing since our Sept. 27 Compass has begun, with over half of the Sectors and all the major indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA, and S&P 600 Small Caps) showing bullish 2+ month inflections. As referenced last week, we expect the aforementioned indexes to rally to their respective 200-day MAs; longer-term, this is still a bear market until they can break above their respective 200-day MAs. Bullish 2+ Month Inflections. As ...
Another Bear Market Rally Brewing? In last week's Compass (Sept. 27) we discussed our belief that the market indexes could see a bounce or pause in selling, citing numerous oversold indexes/Sectors that were testing critical supports, including 3636 on the S&P 500, $269 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $162 on the Russell 2000 (IWM). Sector and index supports held, and early indications suggest a bear market rally is brewing, and potentially that the lows are in for this bear market, helped by shor...
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