reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
More Breakouts and Risk-On Developments We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX is above 5700-5785, though we believe there is a low probability that this level gets tested any time soon. Short-term supports on the SPX include the 20-day MA (currently 6233), 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-605...
EME EMCOR GROUP
STRL STERLING CONSTRUCTION COMPANY INC.
PWR QUANTA SERVICES INC.
MTZ MASTEC INC.
GVA GRANITE CONSTRUCTION INCORPORATED
DY DYCOM INDUSTRIES INC.
BWXT BWX TECHNOLOGIES INC.
FLR FLUOR CORPORATION
MYRG MYR GROUP INC.
AGX ARGAN INC.
ROAD CONSTRUCTION PARTNERS
IESC IES HOLDINGS INC.
SNEX STONEX GROUP INC
HOOD ROBINHOOD MARKETS INC
COIN COINBASE GLOBAL INC
J JACOBS SOLUTIONS INC.
PRIM PRIME ENERGY P.E. LTD
BULL WEBULL CORPORATION
Moody's Ratings assigns Ba2 rating to AECOM's proposed senior unsecure...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) assigned a Ba2 rating to AECOM's $1.0 billion proposed senior unsecured notes due 2033. All other ratings remain unchanged, including AECOM's Ba1 corporate family rating ("CFR"), Ba1-PD probability of default rating ("PDR") and Baa3 ratings of its senior secured revolving c...
Aecom : 2 directors
A director at Aecom sold/sold after exercising options 20,898 shares at 110.592USD and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the ...
Moody's Ratings announces completion of a periodic review of ratings o...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of AECOM and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 21 November 2024 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the rele...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Buy the Pullback Our outlook remains bullish following the S&P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics; the path of least resistance is higher. We have discussed for the past two weeks (since our 10/22/24 Compass) how we would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, and we are finally getting a pullback. We expect to see support on the SPX at 5600-5670, and we will remain bullish as long as 5600 support holds. Once past the election, s...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- and Mid-Caps Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent S&P 500 (SPX) breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we upgraded our outlook to bullish as of last week's U.S. Macro Vision report (10/15/24). Since late-July, we have been neutral on the SPX, preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction. The verdict of the market is the only one that matters, and...
EME EMCOR GROUP
LII LENNOX INTERNATIONAL INC.
WLDN WILLDAN GROUP
TPC TUTOR PERINI CORPORATION
STRL STERLING CONSTRUCTION COMPANY INC.
PWR QUANTA SERVICES INC.
MTZ MASTEC INC.
GVA GRANITE CONSTRUCTION INCORPORATED
DY DYCOM INDUSTRIES INC.
BWXT BWX TECHNOLOGIES INC.
FLR FLUOR CORPORATION
GLDD GREAT LAKES DREDGE & DOCK CORPORATION
KBR KBR INC.
AGX ARGAN INC.
ARCAY ARCADIS N.V.
ROAD CONSTRUCTION PARTNERS
BV BRIGHTVIEW HOLDINGS
IESC IES HOLDINGS INC.
TT TRANE TECHNOLOGIES PLC
J JACOBS SOLUTIONS INC.
PRIM PRIME ENERGY P.E. LTD
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Bull Trap Still Brewing? The S&P 500 (SPX) continues to hold below 5783, which is the upper-end of an important target/resistance area (5670-5783) we have discussed since our 8/13/24 Compass, just after the SPX hit our 5100-5191 "expected pullback zone." 5670 was the prior all-time high set in July, while 5783 is 2% above 5670. The current "breakout" above 5670 is an extraordinarily weak one, which usually suggests a false breakout/bull trap is brewing; the SPX has spent nearly three weeks abov...
EME EMCOR GROUP
WLDN WILLDAN GROUP
TRN TRINITY INDUSTRIES INC.
TPC TUTOR PERINI CORPORATION
STRL STERLING CONSTRUCTION COMPANY INC.
PWR QUANTA SERVICES INC.
NWPX NORTHWEST PIPE CO.
MTZ MASTEC INC.
GVA GRANITE CONSTRUCTION INCORPORATED
DY DYCOM INDUSTRIES INC.
BWXT BWX TECHNOLOGIES INC.
FLR FLUOR CORPORATION
GLDD GREAT LAKES DREDGE & DOCK CORPORATION
KBR KBR INC.
PRIM PRIMORIS SERVICES CORPORATION
AGX ARGAN INC.
WAB WESTINGHOUSE AIR BRAKE TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION
ARCAY ARCADIS N.V.
ROAD CONSTRUCTION PARTNERS
BV BRIGHTVIEW HOLDINGS
BW BABCOCK & WILCOX ENTERPRISES
IESC IES HOLDINGS INC.
J JACOBS SOLUTIONS INC.
TISI TEAM INC.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
SPX Bull Trap Setting Up? The S&P 500 (SPX) is approaching 5783, which is the upper-end of an important target/resistance area we have discussed for over a month (5670-5783). Using the 2007 SPX topping analog which has tracked the current market almost perfectly, it would suggest a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which is where we get the 5783 number... see chart below. We acknowledge that the SPX is technically "breaking out" to all-time highs ...
EME EMCOR GROUP
RGLD ROYAL GOLD INC.
NEM NEWMONT CORPORATION
WLDN WILLDAN GROUP
VGZ. VISTA GOLD CORP.
TPC TUTOR PERINI CORPORATION
STRL STERLING CONSTRUCTION COMPANY INC.
NGD. NEW GOLD INC.
NG. NOVAGOLD RESOURCES INC.
MTZ MASTEC INC.
GVA GRANITE CONSTRUCTION INCORPORATED
DY DYCOM INDUSTRIES INC.
BWXT BWX TECHNOLOGIES INC.
AGI. ALAMOS GOLD INC.
ABX. BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION
TKO. TASEKO MINES LIMITED
FLR FLUOR CORPORATION
K. KINROSS GOLD CORPORATION
EDR. ENDEAVOUR SILVER CORP.
BTO B2GOLD CORP.
IMG. IAMGOLD CORPORATION
JAGGF JAGUAR MINING INC.
SEA SEABRIDGE GOLD
PRIM PRIMORIS SERVICES CORPORATION
AGX ARGAN INC.
ARCAY ARCADIS N.V.
ROAD CONSTRUCTION PARTNERS
ELD ELDORADO GOLD CORPORATION
IESC IES HOLDINGS INC.
WR.H WORLDWIDE RESOURCES CORP
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact Over the past two weeks we have discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and the mounting evidence that suggests the lows may be in for this pullback (4/30/24 Compass). Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below. As a result, we continue to believe the lows are in for this pullback, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on t...
EME EMCOR GROUP
GBX GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC.
BKD BROOKDALE SENIOR LIVING INC.
TRN TRINITY INDUSTRIES INC.
MTZ MASTEC INC.
MATX MATSON INC.
ENSG ENSIGN GROUP INC.
ASC ARDMORE SHIPPING
GNK GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD.
LCM COSTAMARE INC.
SBLK STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP.
GATX GATX CORPORATION
KBR KBR INC.
KEX KIRBY CORPORATION
RAIL FREIGHTCAR AMERICA INC.
WAB WESTINGHOUSE AIR BRAKE TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION
FSTR L.B. FOSTER CO.
NMM NAVIOS MARITIME PARTNERS
GSL GLOBAL SHIP LEASE INC. CLASS A
DAC DANAOS
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHIPPING
NHC NHC COMMUNICATIONS
J INC.
JACOBS SOLUTIONS INC.
Moody's assigns Baa3 rating to AECOM's amended credit facilities
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) assigned a Baa3 rating to AECOM's amended and extended credit facilities, including a new $1.5 billion senior secured revolving credit facility, a $750 million senior secured term loan A, and a $700 million senior secured term loan B. The ratings on the existing credit faci...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Downgrading Real Estate to Underweight Our bullish outlook we initiated on November 7, 2023 remains intact; this intermediate-to-long-term outlook is likely to stay in place as long as 4800 support holds on the S&P 500 (implying 7-10% downside) and market dynamics remain healthy. To be clear, we are not calling for a pullback to 4800; we view it as a worst-case scenario for the S&P 500, and we simply want to be prepared for anything. Shorter-term, we remain bullish on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100...
EME EMCOR GROUP
URI UNITED RENTALS INC.
WLK WESTLAKE CHEMICAL CORPORATION
WLDN WILLDAN GROUP
TPC TUTOR PERINI CORPORATION
STRL STERLING CONSTRUCTION COMPANY INC.
PWR QUANTA SERVICES INC.
MTZ MASTEC INC.
MTRX MATRIX SERVICE COMPANY
GVA GRANITE CONSTRUCTION INCORPORATED
DY DYCOM INDUSTRIES INC.
BWXT BWX TECHNOLOGIES INC.
HRI HERC HOLDINGS INC.
KBR KBR INC.
MYRG MYR GROUP INC.
AGX ARGAN INC.
VVV VALVOLINE INC.
HEES H&E EQUIPMENT SERVICES INC.
ARCAY ARCADIS N.V.
ROAD CONSTRUCTION PARTNERS
IESC IES HOLDINGS INC.
ALTG ALTA EQUIP GROUP INC
J JACOBS SOLUTIONS INC.
PRIM PRIME ENERGY P.E. LTD
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Yesterday's hotter-than-expected CPI report continues to suggest a more restrictive Fed policy than the market has been expecting. This raises the possibility of further consolidation for small- and mid-caps. Meanwhile, large-cap indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100) remain bullish, finding support at their respective 20-day MAs since November 2023; the only question is whether that will continue to be the case, as our main concern remains rising Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY), which have bro...
EME EMCOR GROUP
TPC TUTOR PERINI CORPORATION
STRL STERLING CONSTRUCTION COMPANY INC.
PWR QUANTA SERVICES INC.
PSX PHILLIPS 66
PBF PBF ENERGY INC. CLASS A
NVEE NV5 GLOBAL INC.
MUSA MURPHY USA INC.
MPC MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION
GVA GRANITE CONSTRUCTION INCORPORATED
CVI CVR ENERGY INC.
BWXT BWX TECHNOLOGIES INC.
FLR FLUOR CORPORATION
MYRG MYR GROUP INC.
PRIM PRIMORIS SERVICES CORPORATION
VLO VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION
DK DELEK US HOLDINGS INC
ARCAY ARCADIS N.V.
ROAD CONSTRUCTION PARTNERS
PSN PARSONS
IESC IES HOLDINGS INC.
DINO HOLLYFRONTIER CORP
J JACOBS SOLUTIONS INC.
Moody's upgrades AECOM's CFR to Ba1; outlook stable
Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) upgraded AECOM's corporate family rating (CFR) to Ba1 from Ba2, its probability of default rating (PDR) to Ba1-PD from Ba2-PD, and the rating on the senior unsecured notes to Ba2 from Ba3. The ratings on the senior secured bank credit facilities – including the se...
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