PayPal Financial Factsheet - Growth, Valuation and Peer Comps

The report gives a detailed financial and operational snapshot of PayPal as of Q1 2025, based on company filings and independent analysis. It also lists most relevant peer group and their valuation vis-a-vis PayPal.

Tenet Healthcare Corp: 2 directors

Two Directors at Tenet Healthcare Corp sold/gave away 25,525 shares at between 0.000USD and 125.433USD. The significance rating of the trade was 75/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's dir...

Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks

Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.

In-Payments: X Money and Musk: risks to PayPal (Venmo), Cash App and p...

X announced last week it was partnering with Visa to develop a real-time payment system in the US. Through Visa Direct, X Money Account will support an in-platform digital wallet and peer-to-peer payments connected to users’ debit cards, with an option to transfer funds to a bank account.

PayPal (BUY, TP: $100, +25%) - Solid beat at Q4; branded concerns appe...

PayPal reported another solid quarter, coming in ahead of expectations: 4% at transaction margin $ and 6% at non-GAAP EPS. Guidance for FY 25 suggests a small uplift to TM$ and EPS for the street though the bears seem (still) very focused on branded TPV growth.

Dropping Coverage

In-Payments: a new bi-weekly blog! Paze to be Fastlane? Click to Pay ...

To kick off 2025 we’re launching “In-Payments”, a bi-weekly blog which will leverage off recent news flow for a quick dive into what we see as key themes to be tracking across the Payments and broader Fintech space.

PYPL US (BUY, TP: $100, +12%) SQ US (Neutral, TP $70 - UR) CFPB overs...

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) issued a finalized version of a rule at the end of last week, saying it will soon supervise non-bank firms, including PayPal and Block, that offer financial services. With an inbound Trump, does this still matter?

Tenet Healthcare Corporation - September 2024 (LTM): Peer Snapshot

Compares key performance metrics against industry peers.

Tenet Healthcare Corporation: Update to credit analysis following upgr...

Our credit view of this issuer reflects its considerable scale and its very good liquidity and favorable debt maturity profile, offset by its moderately high financial leverage.

PYPL US (BUY, TP: $100, +25%) PayPal - Pillar Two tax / EPS risk for F...

We spoke to PayPal today for a broader Q3 wrap but specifically also to focus on Pillar Two, given this tax angle is the current topic du jour (and following Mastercard’s guide last week) and given market whispers that 10% of PayPal EPS could be at risk from FY 25. Such extreme estimates seem a stretch.

Money 20/20 USA - Key takeaways

While still recovering from the whirlwind of information we’re taking an initial crack at summarizing some of the key takeaways from attending the annual Money 20/20 USA jamboree in Las Vegas last week. While the subject of many discussions was quite predictable—did anybody mention AI?— insight came from conversations around ROI considerations for AI, Open banking/finance use cases and compliance, Real-time payments and the ever-present issue of Fraud.

PYPL US (BUY, TP: $100, +25%) Healthy Q3 beat; sneak preview for FY 25...

PayPal reported solid Q3s, coming in ahead of expectations: 4% at transaction margin $ and 11% at non-GAAP EPS. FY guidance for 2024 was lifted, and consensus will move up, although less so for Q4 once higher higher investment costs are factored in.

Healthcare Update

PYPL US (BUY, TP: $100, +28%) PayPal - Everywhere CAC/LTV modeling, A...

We are pushing up our mid-term TM$ estimates on PayPal. Whilst remaining very constructive on Fastlane as a key product driver (see Faster Lane, bigger destination, Aug 20th), we are incorporating stronger debit adoption into estimates, modelling in more detail the direct and flywheel effects of PayPal Everywhere (and indirectly Venmo) and looking in more detail at how CAC/LTV can make sense (push back has been on the 5% cash back incentive and the merit/effectiveness of reward schemes).

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins The S&P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for weeks; using the 2007 SPX topping analog which has tracked the current market almost perfectly, it would suggest a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which is where we get the 5783 number. As long as the SPX does not have a weekly close above 57...

PYPL US (BUY, TP: $85, +24%) ADYEN (BUY, TP: EUR1,700) SQ US (Neutral,...

We continue our series of Deep dives into Payments (see previous: Unified Commerce, and Rise of the Merchants) with a look at Real Time Payment (RTP) developments. Adoption has been rapid on a global basis, notably at the consumer level in markets like Brazil, though is a significant laggard in the US. Momentum here is, however, slowly building through FedNow (launched only in 2023) with banks/FIs stalling, but with consumer demand we think high and with a Visa/Mastercard interchange settlement ...

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Upgrading Consumer Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&P 500 (SPX) as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023. In late-July (7/30/24 Compass) we discussed expectations for a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and at this point it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months from our selected 7/17/2...

PYPL US (BUY, TP: $85, +25%) PayPal Everywhere? Well, almost there..

PayPal at the end of last week presented “PayPal Everywhere”, with “new rich rewards and in-store access” which, according to the release, will “...transform PayPal into a single solution for every type of customer everywhere they shop”. A quick read of the headline might suggest that PayPal is (finally) becoming available for in-store payments. Perhaps even somehow already taking advantage of Apple’s recently announced opening up of access to the NFC chip (and “Secure Element”) for 3rd parties,...