reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25. After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. We will maintain our bullish intermediate...
- William Nestuk
PSA Technology: Is Robotics to be Part of the Current Semiconductor Bo...
News that Fanuc (6954 JT) is integrating Nvidia’s (NVDA US) robotic tools into its own software solutions is a reminder that, for all the focus on where large language models like ChatGPT can take us, these solutions remain very much in the virtual realm. The next big breakthrough in AI would come when such models can deliver fully spatially aware, autonomous mobile products, be these self-drive cars or industrial robots, and to do so at a price and quality that is commercially viable. Analysts ...
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
6324 HARMONIC DRIVE SYSTEMS INC.
5803 FUJIKURA LTD
6954 FANUC CORPORATION
6702 FUJITSU LIMITED
6141 DMG MORI CO. LTD.
6701 NEC CORP.
6268 NABTESCO CORPORATION
6506 YASKAWA ELECTRIC CORPORATION
SIE SIEMENS AG
6324 JT HARMONIC DRIVE SYSTEMS
- Colin Lee
- Ejann Hiew
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH): Takeaways From Analyst Briefi...
FII provided upbeat guidance for its AI-related businesses for 4Q25-2026. Overall, the smooth production ramp-up of GB200/300 servers, new ASIC project wins, and AI revenue and shipment guidance were largely in line with our and market expectations, but further margin upside thanks to an improving yield/mix is a positive surprise. The strong AI business is partially offset by a normalising traditional server business which is likely to remain weak through 2H25-1H26. Maintain BUY. Target price: R...
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Alden Gabriel Lam
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Colin Lee
- Ejann Hiew
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kai Jie Tang
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Ken Lee
- Kong Ho Meng
- Lester Siew
- Ming San Soong
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Sunny Chen
- Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Tham Mun Hon
- Willinoy Sitorus
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, November 14, 2025
Greater China Economics | Money Supply M1 growth fell to 6.2% yoy in October, short of expectations, while M2 growth eased to 8.2% yoy. New bank loans dropped sharply to Rmb0.22t, and new TSF fell to Rmb0.81t, both below forecasts. Outstanding TSF and bank loan growth moderated to 8.5% (-0.2ppt mom) and 6.5% yoy (-0.1ppt mom) respectively, with the decline led by household loans. The numbers are not encouraging. Sector Update | Automobile China’s PV retail sales basically remained flat yoy in O...
V03 VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED
BN2 VALUETRONICS HOLDINGS
PLANB PLAN B MEDIA
PTTGC PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
AP AP THAILAND
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
BAL BUMITAMA AGRI LTD
DLG DIALOG GROUP BHD
CAB CARLSBERG BREWERY MALAYSIA B
601138 FOXCONN INDUSTRIAL INTERNET CO. LTD. CLASS A
09618 JD.COM INC. CLASS A
02618 JD LOGISTICS INC
STM SEATRIUM LTD
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Colin Lee
- Ejann Hiew
- Greater China Research Team
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Sunny Chen
- Tham Mun Hon
Greater China Daily: Friday, November 14, 2025
Top Stories Economics | Money Supply M1 growth fell to 6.2% yoy in October, short of expectations, while M2 growth eased to 8.2% yoy. New bank loans dropped sharply to Rmb0.22t, and new TSF fell to Rmb0.81t, both below forecasts. Outstanding TSF and bank loan growth moderated to 8.5% (-0.2ppt mom) and 6.5% yoy (-0.1ppt mom) respectively, with the decline led by household loans. The numbers are not encouraging. Sector Update | Automobile China’s PV retail sales basically remained flat yoy in Oc...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
India Finally Showing Signs of Life We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int'l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment. We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 and $125-$126. Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 6-month uptrend continues on ACWI-US, which gene...
- Colin Lee
- Ejann Hiew
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH): 3Q25: Results a Strong Beat T...
FII registered a stellar quarter, with net profit beating our and consensus estimates on stronger-than-expected margins. Top-line lagged our expectations, likely due to differences in product mix, and also the reason behind margins remaining elevated despite the product ramp-up of the lower-margin GB200 NVL72 racks. With the recent checks continuing to point towards a much stronger-than-expected demand for AI servers in 2026, we further raise our 2025-27 earnings estimates, and lift our target p...
- Audrey Celia
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Colin Lee
- Ejann Hiew
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Kong Ho Meng
- Ming San Soong
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
- Willinoy Sitorus
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, October 30, 2025
Greater China Company Results | Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH/BUY/Rmb80.80/Target: Rmb89.50) FII registered a stellar quarter, with net profit beating our and consensus estimates on stronger-than-expected margins. Top-line lagged our expectations, likely due to differences in product mix, and also the reason behind margins remaining elevated despite the product ramp-up of the lower-margin GB200 NVL72 racks. With the recent checks continuing to point towards a much stronger-than-expected...
N1U NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION & TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC. SPONSORED ADR
BBL BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
SCC SIAM CEMENT PUBLIC CO. LTD.
MINT MINOR INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
5243 VELESTO ENERGY
2318 PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
0763 ZTE CORPORATION CLASS H
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
601138 FOXCONN INDUSTRIAL INTERNET CO. LTD. CLASS A
HMN ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST
BMRI BANK MANDIRI
600699 JOYSON ELECTRONICS CORP
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Colin Lee
- Greater China Research Team
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Ming San Soong
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
Greater China Daily: Thursday, October 30, 2025
Top Stories Company Results | Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH/BUY/Rmb80.80/Target: Rmb89.50) FII registered a stellar quarter, with net profit beating our and consensus estimates on stronger-than-expected margins. Top-line lagged our expectations, likely due to differences in product mix, and also the reason behind margins remaining elevated despite the product ramp-up of the lower-margin GB200 NVL72 racks. With the recent checks continuing to point towards a much stronger-than-expected ...
300015 AIER EYE HOSPITAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
000333 MIDEA GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
2318 PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
0763 ZTE CORPORATION CLASS H
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
601138 FOXCONN INDUSTRIAL INTERNET CO. LTD. CLASS A
600699 NINGBO JOYSON ELECTRONIC CORP
JOYSON ELECTRONICS CORP
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
5+ Month Uptrend Support Holding on MSCI ACWI We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int'l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment. We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 and $125-$126. Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 5+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US....
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
Stick With Global Technology; China Breaking Out We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int'l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment. We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 and $125-$126. Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 4+ month uptrend continues on ACWI...
- Pelham Smithers
PSA Japan Market Strategy: Market Implications from Takaichi's Suprise...
The Japanese stock market’s take on the surprise victory of Sanae Takaichi in the LDP Presidential race suggested that it wasn’t so much a repeat of the “Koizumi Boom” from 20 years ago, but rather a brand new “Takaichi Boom”, and we saw the Nikkei 225 jump +4.8% to just under 48,000. Pelham Smithers compares and contrasts the impact and flags “Takaichi Stocks”. Importantly, market valuations suggest further upside.
6702 FUJITSU LIMITED
5631 JAPAN STEEL WORKS LTD.
7013 IHI CORPORATION
1812 KAJIMA CORPORATION
7012 KAWASAKI HEAVY INDUSTRIES LTD.
6920 LASERTEC CORP.
7011 MITSUBISHI HEAVY INDUSTRIES LTD.
6701 NEC CORP.
1801 TAISEI CORP
6857 ADVANTEST CORP.
8035 TOKYO ELECTRON LTD.
6506 YASKAWA ELECTRIC CORPORATION
6526 SOCIONEXT INC
- Colin Lee
- Ejann Hiew
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
China IT Hardware: AI Development Is Further Accelerating And Benefitt...
AI infrastructure investments continue to surge, with consensus forecasts for top China/US hyperscalers growing over 10% and 20% qoq respectively. This should fuel AI server demand growth of 60% yoy by 2026. Consumer electronics remain strong, with iPhone 17 lead times far exceeding that of iPhone 16 and Android flagships set for further spec upgrades, which will support multi-year shipment growth. China’s automation and robotics markets are also recovering faster than expected, with humanoid ro...
00992 LENOVO GROUP LIMITED
002371 NAURA TECHNOLOGY GROUP CO LTD CLASS A
ASM PACIFIC TECHNOLOGY LIMITED
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
00285 BYD ELECTRONIC (INTERNATIONAL) CO. LTD.
A2XN AAC TECHNOLOGIES HOLDINGS INC.
300124 SHENZHEN INOVANCE TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD CLASS A
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
01478 Q TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
01810 XIAOMI CORP. CLASS B
0763 ZTE CORPORATION CLASS H
2747 ESTUN AUTOMATION
601138 FOXCONN INDUSTRIAL INTERNET CO. LTD. CLASS A
8637 HK METASURFACE TECHNOLOGIES HOLDINGS LTD (8637 HK)
- Pelham Smithers
PSA Strategy: Japan Stock Market Quarterly for 2025 Q4
For almost three years the Nikkei 225 has been tracking its performance from the 2003~5 bull market, albeit at levels some 3.3x higher In this report, Pelham Smithers discusses the similarities and asks three key questions: (1) Can we continue to track 2005 through the rest of the year; (2) Whatever happens in Q4, should we fear or be hopeful for 2026? And (3) Who are the upcoming winners and losers.
4689 Z HOLDINGS CORPORATION
7751 CANON INC.
6952 CASIO COMPUTER CO. LTD.
4519 CHUGAI PHARMACEUTICAL CO. LTD.
7762 CITIZEN WATCH CO LTD.
4751 CYBERAGENT INC.
4755 RAKUTEN INC.
9433 KDDI CORPORATION
5803 FUJIKURA LTD
4902 KONICA MINOLTA INC.
6752 PANASONIC CORPORATION
7752 RICOH COMPANY LTD.
6869 SYSMEX CORPORATION
5423 TOKYO STEEL MANUFACTURING CO. LTD.
8729 SONY FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC.
7267 HONDA MOTOR CO. LTD.
7202 ISUZU MOTORS LIMITED
9616 KYORITSU MAINTENANCE CO. LTD.
6981 MURATA MANUFACTURING CO. LTD.
6723 RENESAS ELECTRONICS CORPORATION
7974 NINTENDO CO. LTD.
6701 NEC CORP.
6594 NIDEC CORPORATION
7731 NIKON CORP.
2371 KAKAKU.COM INC.
6963 ROHM CO. LTD.
6753 SHARP CORPORATION
6762 TDK CORPORATION
4502 TAKEDA PHARMACEUTICAL CO. LTD.
6857 ADVANTEST CORP.
6976 TAIYO YUDEN CO. LTD.
4186 TOKYO OHKA KOGYO CO. LTD.
8035 TOKYO ELECTRON LTD.
7261 MAZDA MOTOR CORP.
3774 INTERNET INITIATIVE JAPAN
3697 SHIFT
6857 JP ADVANEST
6460 JP SEGA SAMMY
4385 MERCARI INC.
36350 KOEI TECMO
45870 PEPTIDREAM INC
3491 JT GA TECHNOLOGIES
3630 JT DENSAN SYSTEM CO LTD (3630 JT)
4194 VISIONAL
4483 JMDC
WOLF WOLFSPEED INC
TSE: 2980 SRE HOLDINGS CORP
AST VISIONAL INC
5032 JT ASTREE CIE ASSURANCE & REASSURANCE
5253 JT ANYCOLOR INC
9616 JT COVER CORPORATION (5253 JT)
8473 JT KYORITSU MAINTENANCE (9616 JT)
215A SBI HOLDINGS [STRATEGIC BUSINESS INNOVATOR GROUP] (8473 JT)
285A JT TIMEE INC
KIOXIA CORPORATION (285A JT)
- William Nestuk
PSA Capital Goods / Electrical Equipment: Fujikura (5803 JT) – AI Expa...
We see AI data centre expansion continuing throughout the late 2020s, driven by hyperscalers and emerging smaller players such as Oracle. Analyst William Nestuk remains positive on the earnings outlook for Fujikura and suggests a target price of ¥19,000, which is 35% above the current level.
- Colin Lee
- Ejann Hiew
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH): Solid 3Q guidance. More drive...
FII provided solid guidance for 3Q25, expecting solid growth across networking/cloud equipment, as well as precision components. AI servers’ revenue is expected to grow at a solid 1.7x yoy and 1.0x qoq in 3Q25 as GB200 production yield continues to improve to over 1,000 deliveries per month. Going forward, highspeed switches and ASIC servers, as well as AI server transition, should continue to drive FII’s earnings growth. Maintain BUY and raise target price again to Rmb49.50.
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Colin Lee
- Ejann Hiew
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
- Tham Mun Hon
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, August 18, 2025
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity: Growth decelerates as trade war impact deepens. Results Chongqing Brewery (600132 CH/BUY/Rmb55.26/Target: Rmb67.40): 2Q25: Volume remained flat but ASP dropped 2% yoy; expanding off-trade channel to offset the weakness in on-trade channel. CSPC Innovation Pharmaceutical Co (300765 CH/HOLD/Rmb53.00/Target: Rmb52.00): 1H25: Results in line, smooth progress in R&D. Update Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH/BUY/Rmb44.86/Target: Rmb49.50): Solid 3Q guida...
600132 CHONGQING BREWERY CO.LTD CLASS A
544 CSE GLOBAL LTD.
ERW ERAWAN GROUP
CENTEL CENTRAL PLAZA HOTEL
PREIT PARKWAYLIFE REAL ESTATE
HEIM HEINEKEN MALAYSIA BHD
CPN-R CENTRAL PATTANA PCL NVDR
601138 FOXCONN INDUSTRIAL INTERNET CO. LTD. CLASS A
FRKN FRENCKEN GROUP LTD
HLA HONG LEONG ASIA LTD
300765 CSPC INNOVATION PHARMACEUTICAL CO L
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Colin Lee
- Ejann Hiew
- Greater China Research Team
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Tham Mun Hon
Greater China Daily: Monday, August 18, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Economic Activity Industrial production growth weakened to 5.7% yoy in July, below consensus expectations of 6.0% yoy. FAI ytd growth continued its decline to 1.6% yoy, weighed by deteriorating property FAI ytd (-12.0% yoy), hitting fresh lows. Retail sales growth at 3.7% yoy also disappointed, well below consensus expectations of 4.6% yoy. The unemployment rate edged higher to 5.2%. July's data confirms our earlier warning of downside pressure, and we expect more fisc...
- Colin Lee
- Ejann Hiew
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH): 2Q25 results in line; lift es...
2Q25 headline numbers are in line with FII’s profit alert range and our estimates, with core net profit growing 59% yoy to Rmb6.8b, as revenue grew 36% yoy and gross margins expanded 0.5ppt yoy during the quarter. The key contributor of the robust top-line growth and margin expansion was the production ramp-up of GB200 servers, as well as a higher-than-expected contribution from the high-margin GPU module/baseboard business. Maintain BUY and raise target price to Rmb41.00.
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Ejann Hiew
- Greater China Research Team
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Wednesday, July 9, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Update China Resources Building Materials Technology (1313 HK/BUY/HK$1.79/Target: HK$2.30): Strong margins anchored by pricing discipline; supply reform still hinges on stricter enforcement mechanisms. Laopu Gold (6181 HK/NOT RATED/HK$1,082.00): Ongoing product innovation and channel expansion; committed to long-term single-store sales target. TRADERS’ CORNER China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd. (6881 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$9.13-9.20 China Youran Dairy Group Limited (9858 HK):...
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