reports
- Blair Levin
DISH Challenge to Venu Succeeds: What’s Next?
This morning, we published a note on DISH’s challenge to the Venu Joint Venture. We discussed the implications of DISH’s letter to the District Court Judge who had been overseeing the case accusing the defendants of having “purchased their way out of their antitrust violation.” The letter pointed to how the joint venture harms MVPDs like DISH by forcing DISH (or Sling) to offer big bundles while offering their own “skinny” packages. The letter concluded by saying that “EchoStar is currently ev...
- Blair Levin
DISH Challenges Disney/Venu/Fubo Deal: Implications for Investors
Earlier this week, Fubo and Disney settled their disagreement over the antitrust case Fubo had filed challenging the Disney/Warner/Fox joint venture to create a streaming sports bundle called Venu. Fubo had won the first round, with the District Court finding that the joint venture violated the antitrust laws. The defendants appealed and the case was heading towards a Court of Appeals argument. The case settled, however, because Disney agreed to buy a controlling interest in Fubo as well as p...
- Blair Levin
What to Expect in 2025: The Most Consequential Year in Communications ...
Happy New Year, welcome back and we hope those in Blair’s path found shelter from the storm. 2025 will be the most consequential year in telecom and media policy since the mid-1990’s. In this note, we preview the key policy pivots we see as likely to impact the telecom and media landscape including the macro issues of taxes, tariffs, and deportations; and the sector focused issues affecting ISPs (reorientation of BEAD, USF reform, copper retirement and cybersecurity), wireless players (spectrum...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Quick hit: spectrum auction in 2025; implications for Dish and carrier...
Blair published a note this morning that anticipates the FCC receiving authority to auction the AWS-3 licenses that Dish relinquished as part of the NDAA. We think an auction could take place in 2H25. In this brief note, we cover the implications for Dish and for the other carriers.
- Blair Levin
Finally, Hope for a (Small) Spectrum Auction
One of the must-pass pieces of legislation left for this Congress is the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). The current draft now includes a provision that would appropriate $3 billion for the Rip and Replace program designed to help small telecom companies remove and replace equipment purchased from Chinese telecommunications equipment companies, equipment Congress believes creates national security risks. The legislation funds the appropriation by allowing the FCC to conduct a one-ti...
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
3Q24 Broadband Trends: FWA capacity limits; FWA demand limits
In this iteration of “Broadband Trends” we update our FWA capacity forecast. We also touch on early signs that demand for FWA may be limited, which could prevent mobile operators from reaching capacity limits (or force them to work harder to get there). This could have a big impact on the pace of Cable subscriber growth. Finally, we reprise our work on the competitive positioning of the various operators based on relative NPS scores.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS: a thought on the debt exchange
In this note we show how there is at least $0.7BN of additional value on the table that could help narrow the discount DBS bondholders are being asked to accept in order to get the DTV deal across the goal line. We also run through the differences between the four segments EchoStar reports at earnings and the four filing entities they disclose to the SEC. We also update our estimates for DBS, Dish Networks and Hughes now that their 10-Q’s have been filed.
Walt Disney Co: 1 director
A director at Walt Disney Co sold 2,798 shares at 99.990USD and the significance rating of the trade was 72/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar: Value increases following transactions (but takes longer to ...
We have updated our model for the sale of DBS and increased investment in network infrastructure and subscriber growth following the capital raise. We have also updated spectrum values for recent transactions. We are more confident than ever in the value that will be realized if spectrum is sold, though the timing of a sale has likely been pushed out. Dish could build a business that is as valuable as the spectrum, but it is tough to have confidence in this.
- Pelham Smithers
DIS WALT DISNEY COMPANY
9697 CAPCOM CO. LTD.
4816 TOEI ANIMATION
9468 KADOKAWA CORPORATION
9766 KONAMI HOLDINGS CORP
7974 NINTENDO CO. LTD.
6758 SONY CORPORATION
9602 TOHO CO. LTD.
3765 GUNGHO ONLINE ENTERTAINMENT INC.
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
6460 JP SEGA SAMMY
78320 BANDAI NAMCO
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Implications of Multiple Mergers at the FCC
It appears likely that within a few months, multiple transactions—TMUS buying US Cellular, VZ buying Frontier, and DISH and DirecTV merging—will be pending at the FCC. The transactions involve all four, or three (depending on how you think about it) of the national facilities based mobile carriers. Investors have asked, how will the presence of multiple transactions affect the process of approval for each other? We address that question in this note.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: What We Learned from the DBS Deal Announcements
The big news yesterday was the announcement of a series of deals related to EchoStar, DirecTV, TPG and AT&T. Our colleagues have put out a series of notes relating to what we learned on the financial front. In this quick note we review what we learned on the antitrust/regulatory front.
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar transactions – they did it!
A couple of quarters ago, Dish set out to lower debt outstanding, extend maturities on the debt that remained, and put new cash on the balance sheet. They had a deadline of November 2024, when $2BN of debt at DBS matured. As we approached the deadline, investors were growing increasingly skeptical that it could be done. They did it all, and they wrapped a sale of DBS into the process. Our thoughts on the deals and the implications for EchoStar and the broader industry in this note.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Rural Areas and the DBS Merger
One issue that keeps coming up is how the government will assess the competitive impact of the DBS merger on rural areas. A New York Times article this weekend summarized the concern many have raised. In this note, we assess what the article got right and what it missed.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Dish / DTV reportedly close to a deal
Bloomberg and the WSJ both reported this afternoon that the companies are close to a deal. They claim an announcement could come by Monday. The only new data points that we picked up were that DTV is the acquirer, and AT&T and TPG will remain investors (and presumably remain in control). In addition, the stories claim that Sling will be part of the sale.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: The DBS Deal and the 12 GHz Band
While investors contemplate the financial implications and regulatory prospects of a potential DISH/DirecTV deal, one generally overlooked element of the transaction is the role the 12 GHz band could play in the value creation through the deal. In this note we analyze that potential which could be more disruptive to the market than generally understood; stated differently, the value of the deal could be more about spectrum than synergy.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Dish ends negotiations with DBS creditors
Dish filed an 8-K this morning stating that its negotiations with DBS creditors had concluded without reaching an agreement about any transactions. The negotiations were about exchanging certain DBS notes for new secured debt and raising new capital. The company says it remains in discussions with various other parties about possible financing transactions.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Dish seeks build extension (that we think they'll get)
Blair put out a note on Dish’s request for an extension of the buildout deadline. Blair argues that the FCC is likely to agree to the extension. If they do, it will be material for both the credit and the equity. Blair’s note is a must read for anyone involved. We provide some additional quick thoughts here.
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