A director at Indosat Tbk Pt bought 921,900 shares at 2,165.599IDR and the significance rating of the trade was 56/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cl...
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI: Broad-based improvement in PMI. Results Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$8.11/Target: HK$14.60): 3Q24: Premiumisation slows down in China; in-home channel to be a focus. BYD Electronic (285 HK/BUY/HK$33.50/Target: HK$40.90): 3Q24: Solid set of results; 4Q24/2025 growth may accelerate further. Maintain BUY. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/HOLD/HK$6.91/Target: HK$6.50): 3Q24: In line; 3Q24 wind power generation up 6.2% yoy. COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK/HOLD/HK$11.54/Tar...
We maintain BUY on ISAT with a target price of Rp3,100 on the back of the following: a) the GPUaaS market could grow 29% CAGR in 2024-29, b) Lintasarta’s (ISAT’s subsidiary) capability to offer GPUaaS (in collaboration with NVIDIA), c) revenue contribution of the non-mobile segment may increase to 25% in 2028, d) the number of ISAT’s home broadband (HiFi) subscribers could grow by 20% yoy in 2025, and e) core earnings growth of 33% yoy in 2024 as well as better seasonality in 4Q24.
GREATER CHINA Update JD.com (9618 HK/BUY/HK$160.40/Target: HK$197.00): 3Q24 results preview: Promising outlook; benefitting from trade-in programme. INDONESIA Update Indosat (ISAT IJ/BUY/Rp2,490/Target: Rp3,100): Core earnings could jump 33% yoy in 2024; launches GPU Service for AI Computing. Maintain BUY. MALAYSIA Update Deleum (DLUM MK/HOLD/RM1.55/Target: RM1.70): Most of the share price outperformance is linked to P&M’s re-rating; we still see minor trading upside for upcoming MCM contracts...
We maintain OVERWEIGHT on the telecommunications sector in view of several factors: a) telcos’ 2024/25 mobile data revenue could grow 8%/7% yoy, b) digital channels (penetration ranging from 29% to 55%) could help improve ARPU, c) telcos’ EBITDA growth could reach 8% yoy in 2024 and 4% yoy in 2025, and d) attractive valuation with many telcos trading at -1SD EV/EBITDA. Our top pick is EXCL (BUY/Target: Rp2,900).
Indonesian telcos returned to a more sustainable pace of revenue growth, with EBITDA ahead of topline for XL and Indosat again. As a result, Indosat recorded its highest ever EBITDA margin whilst XL’s margin remained well ahead of guidance. For Telkomsel, enterprise accelerated with strong Indihome net additions but was marred by continued mobile revenue share dilution (although easing) as peers grabbed shares in ex-Java.
The combined EBITDA of TLKM, ISAT and EXCL grew 5% yoy in 2Q24. ARPU of ISAT and EXCL rose 5% yoy and 6% yoy respectively, while the ARPU of TLKM’s subsidiary for the cellular business (Telkomsel) declined 10% yoy. During 2Q24, ISAT gained a little market share (based on EBITDA) among the top three telcos, partly because it managed to expand its EBITDA margin slightly (2Q24: 49% vs 1Q24: 47%). Maintain OVERWEIGHT with EXCL as our top pick.
ISAT booked 1H24 EBITDA of Rp13.4t (+18% yoy), in line with our and consensus fullyear estimates. Meanwhile, 1H24 NPAT jumped 43% yoy to Rp2.7t, above our estimate, but in line with consensus’. 2Q24 ARPU was up 1% qoq to Rp38,000, back to positive trajectory from the previous decline of 3% yoy in 1Q24. For the non-mobile business, the company plans to launch GPU-As-A-Service in Aug 24. Maintain BUY with a slightly higher target price of Rp12,400.
Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ/BUY/Rp725/Target: Rp1,200): 2Q24: NPAT up 20.9% yoy; above consenus expectations. Indosat (ISAT IJ/BUY/Rp10,200/Target: Rp12,400): 2Q24: Net profit up 47% yoy; EBITDA margin gradually expands. TRADERS’ CORNER Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ): Technical BUY Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ): Technical BUY
GREATER CHINA Update Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$15.86/Target: HK$23.10): 2Q24 results preview: Expect resilient results; downward pressure on margins. INDONESIA Results Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ/BUY/Rp725/Target: Rp1,200): 2Q24: NPAT up 20.9% yoy; above consenus expectations. Indosat (ISAT IJ/BUY/Rp10,200/Target: Rp12,400): 2Q24: Net profit up 47% yoy; EBITDA margin gradually expands. MALAYSIA Strategy Addressing The Triple Concerns: The FBMKLCI’s shocking 4.6% plunge yesterday provides...
GREATER CHINA Sector Consumer: 618 overall GMV down 7% yoy. Channel shift to livestreaming platforms; strong performance from domestic brands. Internet: 618 shopping festival − Front-loaded momentum amid cautious consumption. Online Travel Agencies: Encouraging travel enthusiasm persisting into summer holidays and 2H24. Update China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877 HK/BUY/HK$8.00/Target: HK$11.00): 1H24 revenue under pressure; targets 2024 revenue growth of 10% yoy. Small/Mid Cap Highlights Pax Glo...
We upgrade ISAT to BUY with a target price of Rp11,900 due to several factors: a) 2024 mobile data revenue growth of 10% yoy; b) potential home broadband revenue growth of 8% yoy in 2025; c) additional growth drivers in the long term from AI and cybersecurity services; and d) a 29% yoy growth for 2024 core profit, partly supported by synergies after ISAT merged with Hutchinson Tri in early-22.
Indosat (ISAT IJ/BUY/Rp10,250/Target: Rp11,900): A 29% yoy growth in 2024 core profit, AI and cybersecurity as potential growth drivers in the long term. Upgrade to BUY. TRADERS’ CORNER Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN IJ): Technical BUY Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ): Technical BUY
Telkomsel utilised its CVM programme to raise its data pricing in Apr-May 24. This includes a seasonal price hike (around 3-5%) during Eid al-Fitr in 2024, when demand for data services was higher vs normal days. EXCL recently launched a new data package BP with localised offerings (37-50% of total quota). We still expect a slight positive seasonal impact from Eid al-Fitr on telcos’ 2Q24 performance. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the sector with XL Axiata as our top pick.
GREATER CHINA Economics Trade May exports grew 7.6%; imports moderated. Sector Property Property prices further drop after 17 May 24 policy combo; effective implementation of policies crucial for market stabilisation. INDONESIA Sector Telecommunications Pos...
Indonesian operators posted better trends across the board. Both Indosat and XL continue to benefit from their ex-Java expansion (where prices are typically higher) as their mobile ARPU were up double-digits. Meanwhile, Telkomsel is also recovering with IndiHome maintaining its MSD growth as it moves into the low and mid value segment. Importantly, official announcements suggests that the XL and Smartfren merger is imminent which bodes well for the wider market repair story but is slightly negat...
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