reports
- Chris Hoare
EM Telcos Jio targeting doubling in size and 1m monthly adds for FWA ...
What's New: At Reliance Industries’ AGM last week, Jio announced 2 key things, and did not announce a 3rd: What was announced: 1. A doubling of Jio’s profitability in 3-4 years 2. Target of 1m FWA adds per month What was not announced: 1. A time line for Jio IPO Our thoughts and implications for the Indian & Global telco markets below
- Chris Hoare
Indonesian Telcos Q2 24 review: Continued margin expansion from XL an...
Indonesian telcos returned to a more sustainable pace of revenue growth, with EBITDA ahead of topline for XL and Indosat again. As a result, Indosat recorded its highest ever EBITDA margin whilst XL’s margin remained well ahead of guidance. For Telkomsel, enterprise accelerated with strong Indihome net additions but was marred by continued mobile revenue share dilution (although easing) as peers grabbed shares in ex-Java.
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – 2Q24: 11% yoy Growth In Core Profit
The combined EBITDA of TLKM, ISAT and EXCL grew 5% yoy in 2Q24. ARPU of ISAT and EXCL rose 5% yoy and 6% yoy respectively, while the ARPU of TLKM’s subsidiary for the cellular business (Telkomsel) declined 10% yoy. During 2Q24, ISAT gained a little market share (based on EBITDA) among the top three telcos, partly because it managed to expand its EBITDA margin slightly (2Q24: 49% vs 1Q24: 47%). Maintain OVERWEIGHT with EXCL as our top pick.
- Hendri Effendi
- Paula Ruth
- Paula Ruth
Indosat (ISAT IJ) - 2Q24: Net Profit Up 47% yoy; EBITDA Margin Gradual...
ISAT booked 1H24 EBITDA of Rp13.4t (+18% yoy), in line with our and consensus fullyear estimates. Meanwhile, 1H24 NPAT jumped 43% yoy to Rp2.7t, above our estimate, but in line with consensus’. 2Q24 ARPU was up 1% qoq to Rp38,000, back to positive trajectory from the previous decline of 3% yoy in 1Q24. For the non-mobile business, the company plans to launch GPU-As-A-Service in Aug 24. Maintain BUY with a slightly higher target price of Rp12,400.
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ/BUY/Rp725/Target: Rp1,200): 2Q24: NPAT up 20.9% yoy; above consenus expectations. Indosat (ISAT IJ/BUY/Rp10,200/Target: Rp12,400): 2Q24: Net profit up 47% yoy; EBITDA margin gradually expands. TRADERS’ CORNER Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ): Technical BUY Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ): Technical BUY
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Chong Lee Len
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Malaysia Research Team
- Paula Ruth
- Stevanus Juanda
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
- Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
Regional Morning Notes - Tuesday, August 06, 2024
GREATER CHINA Update Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$15.86/Target: HK$23.10): 2Q24 results preview: Expect resilient results; downward pressure on margins. INDONESIA Results Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ/BUY/Rp725/Target: Rp1,200): 2Q24: NPAT up 20.9% yoy; above consenus expectations. Indosat (ISAT IJ/BUY/Rp10,200/Target: Rp12,400): 2Q24: Net profit up 47% yoy; EBITDA margin gradually expands. MALAYSIA Strategy Addressing The Triple Concerns: The FBMKLCI’s shocking 4.6% plunge yesterday provides...
- Chris Hoare
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jo Yee Ng
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kate Luang
- Ming San Soong
- Nurul Nazira Binti Abdullah
- Paula Ruth
- Philip Wong
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Regional Morning Notes - Friday, June 21, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Consumer: 618 overall GMV down 7% yoy. Channel shift to livestreaming platforms; strong performance from domestic brands. Internet: 618 shopping festival − Front-loaded momentum amid cautious consumption. Online Travel Agencies: Encouraging travel enthusiasm persisting into summer holidays and 2H24. Update China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877 HK/BUY/HK$8.00/Target: HK$11.00): 1H24 revenue under pressure; targets 2024 revenue growth of 10% yoy. Small/Mid Cap Highlights Pax Glo...
- Paula Ruth
Indosat (ISAT IJ) - A 29% yoy Growth In 2024 Core Profit; AI And Cyber...
We upgrade ISAT to BUY with a target price of Rp11,900 due to several factors: a) 2024 mobile data revenue growth of 10% yoy; b) potential home broadband revenue growth of 8% yoy in 2025; c) additional growth drivers in the long term from AI and cybersecurity services; and d) a 29% yoy growth for 2024 core profit, partly supported by synergies after ISAT merged with Hutchinson Tri in early-22.
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
Indonesia Daily - Friday, June 21, 2024
Indosat (ISAT IJ/BUY/Rp10,250/Target: Rp11,900): A 29% yoy growth in 2024 core profit, AI and cybersecurity as potential growth drivers in the long term. Upgrade to BUY. TRADERS’ CORNER Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN IJ): Technical BUY Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ): Technical BUY
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – Positive Seasonality To Support 2Q24 Results; Mai...
Telkomsel utilised its CVM programme to raise its data pricing in Apr-May 24. This includes a seasonal price hike (around 3-5%) during Eid al-Fitr in 2024, when demand for data services was higher vs normal days. EXCL recently launched a new data package BP with localised offerings (37-50% of total quota). We still expect a slight positive seasonal impact from Eid al-Fitr on telcos’ 2Q24 performance. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the sector with XL Axiata as our top pick.
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Ceilica Su Rui
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
- Jonathan Koh
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Leow Huey Chuen
- Paula Ruth
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Tham Mun Hon
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, June 11, 2024
GREATER CHINA Economics Trade May exports grew 7.6%; imports moderated. Sector Property Property prices further drop after 17 May 24 policy combo; effective implementation of policies crucial for market stabilisation. INDONESIA Sector Telecommunications Pos...
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
PTT PTT PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
IRPC IRPC PUBLIC CO. LTD.
ISAT INDOSAT
TOP THAI OIL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
IVL INDORAMA VENTURES PUBLIC CO. LTD.
TOWR PT SARANA MENARA NUSANTARA TBK
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
SCC SIAM CEMENT PUBLIC CO. LTD.
PTTEP PTT EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION PLC
PTTGC PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
PTG PTG ENERGY
SPRC STAR PETROLEUM REFINING
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
SOP SARAWAK OIL PALMS BERHAD
KIML KIM LOONG RESOURCES BHD
BURSA BURSA MALAYSIA BHD
IOI IOI CORP BHD
KLK KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD
GENP GENTING PLANTATIONS BHD
HAPL HAP SENG PLANTATIONS HOLDINGS BHD
OR PTT OIL & RETAIL BUSINESS PCL
EXCL XL AXIATA (EXCELCOMINDO)
688536 3PEAK INCORPORATED
BCOW 1895 BANCORP OF WISCONSIN INC
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
Z29 029 GROUP SE
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Chris Hoare
Indonesian Telcos Q1 24 review: Improvements across the board; final ...
Indonesian operators posted better trends across the board. Both Indosat and XL continue to benefit from their ex-Java expansion (where prices are typically higher) as their mobile ARPU were up double-digits. Meanwhile, Telkomsel is also recovering with IndiHome maintaining its MSD growth as it moves into the low and mid value segment. Importantly, official announcements suggests that the XL and Smartfren merger is imminent which bodes well for the wider market repair story but is slightly negat...
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – 1Q24 EBITDA Up 9% yoy; EXCL Showed Slight Gain In...
The combined EBITDA and net profit of TLKM, ISAT, and EXCL was up by 9% yoy (4% qoq) and 4% yoy (3% qoq) respectively, despite more signs of competition in 1Q24. EXCL showed a slight gain in market share (based on 1Q24 EBITDA) among the top 3 telcos, partly thanks to EBITDA margin expansion. The upcoming Eid al-Fitr festive season could bring a slightly positive seasonality to telcos’ 2Q24 performance. Maintain OVERWEIGHT with EXCL as our top pick.
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Chris Hoare
- Paula Ruth
Indosat (ISAT IJ) - 1Q24: EBITDA Up 22% yoy With Stable EBITDA Margin ...
ISAT reported 1Q24 EBITDA of Rp6.5t, up 22% yoy (+0.6% qoq), in line with our and consensus expectations, thanks to mobile data (+14% yoy) and multimedia, data communication, and internet revenue (+36% yoy). The cellular subscriber base slightly expanded 2.3% yoy (mostly from outer Java). ISAT’s ARPU jumped 14% yoy, but slightly declined 3% qoq due to seasonality. We conservatively expect modest EBITDA growth (+6% yoy) in 2024. Downgrade to HOLD. Target price: Rp11,400.
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Monday, May 6, 2024
Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ/BUY/Rp123/Target: Rp270): 1Q24: Records positive EBITDA for the first time in its history. GoTo GoJek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ/HOLD/Rp66/Target: Rp70): 1Q24: Loss improves by 77.7% − ahead of expectations. Indosat (ISAT IJ/HOLD/Rp10,625/Target: Rp11,400): 1Q24: EBITDA up 22% yoy with stable EBITDA margin vs 4Q23. Downgrade to HOLD. Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ/BUY/Rp5,025/Target: Rp7,300): 1Q24: NPAT rises 17.8% yoy on robust toll revenue growth. Results within expectations. TRADERS’...
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