Greater China Economics | Trade Exports growth accelerated to 6.6% yoy in December (+0.7ppt mom), well above consensus, supported by strong shipments growth to Hong Kong and ASEAN, while exports growth to the US weakened further. Import growth surged to 5.7% yoy (+3.8ppt mom), beating expectations amid broad-based commodity recovery. Trade surplus widened to US$114.1b. Growths of motor vehicle, hi-tech, and mechanical & electrical exports strengthened. Overall, December’s trade data is marke...
Mobile rebounded sharply after 4 quarters of declines, as the price up initiatives in 1H25 have started to flow through. To some extent though this is already reflected in consensus which expects momentum to continue into Q4, which are broadly in-line with the recalibrated guidance. YTD, XLSmart’s stock has been the outperformer and rightfully so given the anticipated synergies.
Greater China Economics | PMI November PMI undershot expectations; manufacturing PMI was at 49.2 (+0.2pt mom) and non-manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.5 (-0.6pt mom), the first contraction in nearly three years. With the services industry index weakened to 49.5 (-0.7pt mom). PMI data confirms growth momentum is easing, so expect more supportive policies to be rolled out soon, but for economic confidence to return, we need a sustainable bottom in the real estate sector. Sector Update | Heal...
A director at Indosat Tbk Pt bought 2,370,200 shares at 2,105.662IDR and the significance rating of the trade was 60/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years ...
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI Rebound falters, weighed down by weaker construction and input cost pressures. Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales pressured by anti-involution initiatives. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$8.26/Target: HK$12.00) ...
The easiest way to make money in EM Telcos in the last 3-4 years has been to buy the consolidation plays. XLSmart is the latest in a long line. Synergies are probably worth more than the current market cap and we therefore see substantial upside. However, with an auction coming, and capex likely to remain elevated near term, we think this will take time to play out. In a separate note out today we discuss the outlook for the Indonesian telco market more broadly.
GREATER CHINA Economics A New Round of Policy Support Positive for the economy, but mostly priced in. Results BeiGene (6160 HK/BUY/HK$141.00/Target: HK$220.00) 1Q25: Results beat; reaches profitability with adjusted net earnings of US$136m. INDONESIA Results XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera (EXCL IJ/HOLD/Rp2,180/Target: Rp2,400) 1Q25: EBITDA down 3% yoy. Downgrade to HOLD. MALAYSIA Results SD Guthrie (SDG MK/HOLD/RM...
GREATER CHINA Results Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb12.72/Target: Rmb17.80) 2024: Satisfactory results; expects strong recovery in 2025. Upgrade to BUY. Ningbo Tuopu Group Co (601689 CH/BUY/Rmb50.96/Target: Rmb83.00) 4Q24: Earnings up 38.5% yoy, in line. Maintain BUY with target price unchanged at Rmb83.00. TAL Educational Group (TAL US/BUY/US$9.36/Target: US$14.00) 4QFY25: Earnings miss amid ramped-up investments in AI-powered learning. INDONESIA Sector Telecommun...
Against weak comps, trends improved, but fundamentally the picture remains challenged. The announced share buyback (IDR 3trn, 1.2% of outstanding) is welcome but probably won’t on its own be sufficient to turn the picture around. PT Telkom has disappointed with headwinds outside of Java and in Indihome. We remain Buyers on valuation but there is little in the trends here to suggest an operational turnaround is close.
Indian FWA net adds continue to accelerate and reached roughly c. 2.1m in the December quarter. India is probably therefore now accounting for around 50% of global shipments. We continue to think this is a critical development, and likely to drive an S-curve of adoption in Global EM.
GREATER CHINA Update Lenovo Group (992 HK/BUY/HK$12.16/Target: HK$14.30) 3QFY25 results preview: Expect solid beat on better-than-expected shipment. INDONESIA Results Indosat (ISAT IJ/BUY/Rp1,625/Target: Rp2,100) 4Q24: EBITDA down 2% yoy, and core NPAT drops 19% yoy. MALAYSIA Sector Plantation Jan 25: End stock remains low due to production...
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet Growth potential and AI development trends following emergence of DeepSeek. Property Policy implementation and development remain the key focus and catalyst. INDONESIA Strategy Catching A Falling Knife Or Opportunity To Buy? We Say Buy Our picks are BBCA, BBTN, CMRY, ICBP, KLBF, CTRA, AMRT, PGEO, TL...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Add CATL, JD Logistics, Miniso and Plover Bay to our BUY list, and Weimob to our SELL list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Our Selections Outperform In 2024 Our picks are ISAT, KLBF, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, JSMR, BBNI, CMRY and ASII. MALAYSIA Update VS Industry (VSI MK/BUY/RM1.16/Target: RM1.50) Despite a 17% recovery in its share price since its low in m...
XL Axiata and Smartfren have announced their merger to form “XLSmart”, with a combined Enterprise Value of over IDR 104tn (US$ 6.5bn), implying a 4.6x LTM EV/EBITDA. The news is welcoming as it marks the final move in Indonesia’s mobile consolidation from a peak of eight players down to three.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Add Desay, Meituan, Mengniu, Tencent, and Trip.com to our BUY list. Take profit from CATL. Update CR Mixc Lifestyle (1209 HK/BUY/HK$29.20/Target: HK$32.15) Takeaways from reverse roadshow in Shenzhen. China Resources Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$23.25/Target:HK$32.40) Takeaways from reverse roadshow in Shenzhen. Small/Mid Cap Highlights Regina Miracle (2199 HK/Not Rated/HK$2....
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales up wow; NDRC indicates support for ICE-cars. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao Glass and Desay SV. IT Hardware Blackwell production ramp accelerating; brace for another year of robust growth. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Results Baidu Inc (9888 HK/HOLD/HK$83.85/Target: HK$90.00) ...
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