Indonesian operators posted better trends across the board. Both Indosat and XL continue to benefit from their ex-Java expansion (where prices are typically higher) as their mobile ARPU were up double-digits. Meanwhile, Telkomsel is also recovering with IndiHome maintaining its MSD growth as it moves into the low and mid value segment. Importantly, official announcements suggests that the XL and Smartfren merger is imminent which bodes well for the wider market repair story but is slightly negat...
The combined EBITDA and net profit of TLKM, ISAT, and EXCL was up by 9% yoy (4% qoq) and 4% yoy (3% qoq) respectively, despite more signs of competition in 1Q24. EXCL showed a slight gain in market share (based on 1Q24 EBITDA) among the top 3 telcos, partly thanks to EBITDA margin expansion. The upcoming Eid al-Fitr festive season could bring a slightly positive seasonality to telcos’ 2Q24 performance. Maintain OVERWEIGHT with EXCL as our top pick.
ISAT reported 1Q24 EBITDA of Rp6.5t, up 22% yoy (+0.6% qoq), in line with our and consensus expectations, thanks to mobile data (+14% yoy) and multimedia, data communication, and internet revenue (+36% yoy). The cellular subscriber base slightly expanded 2.3% yoy (mostly from outer Java). ISAT’s ARPU jumped 14% yoy, but slightly declined 3% qoq due to seasonality. We conservatively expect modest EBITDA growth (+6% yoy) in 2024. Downgrade to HOLD. Target price: Rp11,400.
Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ/BUY/Rp123/Target: Rp270): 1Q24: Records positive EBITDA for the first time in its history. GoTo GoJek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ/HOLD/Rp66/Target: Rp70): 1Q24: Loss improves by 77.7% − ahead of expectations. Indosat (ISAT IJ/HOLD/Rp10,625/Target: Rp11,400): 1Q24: EBITDA up 22% yoy with stable EBITDA margin vs 4Q23. Downgrade to HOLD. Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ/BUY/Rp5,025/Target: Rp7,300): 1Q24: NPAT rises 17.8% yoy on robust toll revenue growth. Results within expectations. TRADERS’...
GREATER CHINA Sector Consumer: Tourism and catering strong performances during the Labour Day holiday. INDONESIA Results Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ/BUY/Rp123/Target: Rp270): 1Q24: Records positive EBITDA for the first time in its history. GoTo GoJek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ/HOLD/Rp66/Target: Rp70): 1Q24: Loss improves by 77.7% − ahead of expectations. Indosat (ISAT IJ/HOLD/Rp10,625/Target: Rp11,400): 1Q24: EBITDA up 22% yoy with stable EBITDA margin vs 4Q23. Downgrade to HOLD. Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ/BUY/Rp5...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Call: Adding CR Beer, Crystal, Geely, Haier, Kuaishou, Ningbo Tuopu, Pinduoduo, Shenzhou, and Tencent to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Slight Outperformance In A Bear Market: Our picks are BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, JSMR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Well-Positioned For 1Q Results Season: Our April picks again beat the KLCI. May 24 picks: GENM, Inari, Mah Sing, MrDIY, MYEG, Press Meta...
EXCL recorded net profit of Rp539b in 1Q24 (above our and consensus expectations). Maintain BUY and raise target price to Rp2,900 on several factors: a) a gradual increase in ARPU to an all-time level of Rp44,000; b) solid EBITDA growth (24% yoy) with margin expansion; c) an 8% qoq rise in 1Q24 EBITDA, stronger than its peers (Telkomsel and Indosat); and d) good balance sheet quality (1Q24 net debt/EBITDA: 0.6).
Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ/BUY/Rp5,250/Target: Rp6,300): 1Q24: Net profit up 2.0% yoy, lower CoC drives net profit growth. Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ/BUY/Rp4,980/Target: Rp5,500): 1Q24: NPAT up 30% yoy – ahead of consensus expectation. PP London Sumatra (LSIP IJ/HOLD/Rp865/Target: Rp930): 1Q24: Results within expectations. Triputra Agro Persada (TAPG IJ/BUY/Rp625/Target: Rp700): 1Q24: Results within expectations. Expect 2Q24 earnings to be higher qoq and yoy. XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/...
GREATER CHINA Sector Macau Gaming Apr 24 GGR down 5% mom; downgrade to MARKET WEIGHT. Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$5.10/Target: HK$6.00) 1Q24: Results in line with better NIM performance. LONGi Green Energy Technology (601012 CH/SELL/Rmb18.20/Target: Rmb14.38) 2023/1Q24: Below expectations; inventory write-down wipes out earnings. Downgrade to SELL. PICC Property and Casualty (2328 HK/BUY/HK$9.71/Target: HK$11.70) 1Q24: Earnings miss on higher COR and lower investment income...
Despite Telkom being hit by a series of one-offs in Q4, industry mobile revenue and ARPU trends are still reflective of the benign competitive landscape. EBITDA also improved for both XL and Indosat, with capex intensity improved across the board. Moreover, recent news flow suggests that the XL and Smartfren merger is closer than before. Finally, we also raised our price target for Indosat to IDR12.5k from IDR11k as we layer on higher broadband revenue as it vies for share in the fixed industry.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls: Adding AIA, Midea, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Shenzhen Inovance and Trip.com to our BUY list, with SELL calls on BYD, EVE Energy, and Li Auto. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Mar 24 and 1Q24: Our picks are ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Expanding The Variety Of Events Bets: Our Alpha Picks trounced the KLCI in Mar 24. Apr 24 picks: GENM, Inari, Mah Sing, MrDIY, MY...
Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Mar 24 and 1Q24 : Our picks are ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, and AKRA. Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ/BUY/Rp1,895/Target: Rp2,100) : 4Q23: Core NPAT below expectations due to high tax rate. TRADERS’ CORNER Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ): Technical BUY Harum Energy (HRUM IJ): Technical BUY
Our portfolio outperformed in Mar 24, delivering an average 1.8% return vs the JCI’s 1.3% decline. In 1Q24, our portfolio appreciated 8.4% on market-weighted return vs the JCI’s 0.2% return. Our removal of large-cap banks (BMRI, BBNI) last month has so far proven to be correct with the recent weakness in large-cap banks’ share prices. We add ACES to our portfolio on the back of traffic recovery and margin expansion. Our picks are ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, and AKRA.
GREATER CHINA Results Geely Auto (175 HK/BUY/HK$8.83/Target: HK$11.00): 2023: Results beat on margins again; upgrade to BUY. Raise target price from HK$6.50 to HK$11.00. Innovent Biologics (1801 HK/BUY/HK$39.35/Target: HK$60.00): 2023: Results beat; well positioned for sustainable growth in 2024. Kuaishou (1024 HK/BUY/HK$52.25/Target: HK$85.00): 4Q23: Resilient earnings beat; strong ad monetisation momentum continues. Li Ning (2331 HK/HOLD/HK$21.45/Target: HK$19.60): 2023: Results miss; remain c...
We expect the potential migration of LINK’s residential customers to benefit EXCL If the migration is realised in 3Q24 and the EBITDA margin for LINK’s residential segment is the same with LINK’s 2023 consolidated EBITDA margin of 41%, the migration might raise 2024 and 2025 EBITDA by 4% and 7% respectively. There is also potentially better efficiencies in the future as customers gradually switch to digital vs traditional channel. 4Q23 digital channel’s MAU rose 22% yoy to 29m. Maintain BUY. Tar...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: March Conviction Call: Adding CMB, COLI, CR Beer, Kuaishou and TUL to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Significant Outperformance In Feb 24: Our picks are BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Focusing On Earnings Momentum: Our Alpha Picks underperformed the KLCI in Feb 24 (-0.9% vs 2.5%). Mar 24 picks significantly feature companies with good earnings momentum. SINGAPORE...
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