reports
- Koray Pamir
Erdemir
Revising estimates, Maintain Hold: We have updated our estimates for Erdemir and increased our 12M TP by 2%, to TL53.6/share, mainly led by the update of our macro assumptions, implying a 27% upside potential (vs. 28% upside potential of our coverage). Thus, we reiterate our Hold rating for the shares (downgraded from Buy on January 2022, underperformed the BIST-100 by 64% since). Regarding near term outlook, we are constructive of improvement in Erdemir’s sales volume in FY24 (estimate of 13% y...
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
- Koray Pamir
Aygaz
We have updated our underlying assumptions for Aygaz and raised our 12-month TP up by 21%, to TL175/share, implying 44% upside potential. Accordingly, we upgrade our rating to Buy from Hold. Our key argument is that Aygaz’s valuation has become tangibly more compelling following an underperformance of 43% over the past year vs its key valuation component (c.72% of target NAV), a stake adjusted 9.28% share in Tupras . In effect, implied valuation of Aygaz’s core LPG business and 55% stake in carg...
Tekfen Holding A.S.: 1 director
A director at Tekfen Holding A.S. bought 25,802 shares at 38.620TRY and the significance rating of the trade was 56/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years c...
- Ece Mandaci
Anadolu Efes - Revise target price to TL137 and maintain BUY rating
Anadolu Efes has seen improved profitability and financial leverage in the beer segment in 1H23. As a result, the company has revised up 2023 guidance in beer segment, while expressing caution regarding beer volumes, due to the impact of high inflation. Our projections have been revised to account for macro forecasts, price adjustments reflecting the uptrend in food and beverage inflation, new volume growth assumptions, and a higher corporate tax rate. Consequently, we have increased our target...
- Research Team
Coverage discontinued (AEFES TI, AYGAZ TI, ENJSA TI, EREGL TI, TKFEN T...
Due to a change in analyst responsibilities, we are discontinuing our coverage of Anadolu Efes, Aygaz, Enerjisa Enerji, Erdemir, Tekfen Holding and Vestel Beyaz with immediate effect. We caution against using the forecasts, ratings and price target guidance issued previously on these stocks.
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: gains in all geographies – Turkey ...
EME Equity Market – July 2023 Market performance – gains keep on rolling in all geographies, with special mention of Turkey’s stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 8.6% mom in EUR terms and 9.5% mom in USD in July. Turkey clearly outperformed its peers, gaining 18.6% mom in EUR terms. Most other geographies performed more or less at similar levels, with the Polish WIG20 in the upper part of the range, advancing 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and Czech PX indic...
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
KRU KRUK S.A.
MOL MOL NYRT
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
CEZ CEZ AS
KRKG KRKA D.D.
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
RBI RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL AG
YKBNK YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI A.S.
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
TITK TITAN CEMENT CO. SA
ALK ALKALOID AD SKOPJE
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
LAMDA LAMDA DEVELOPMENT S.A.
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
AKBNK AKBANK TAS
CCC CCC SA
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
PGSUS.E PEGASUS HAVA TASIMACILIGI AS
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
OTKAR OTOKAR OTOMOTIV VE SAVUNMA SANAYI A.S.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
TKFEN TEKFEN HOLDING
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
SAB1L SIAULIU BANKAS
TRP TERAPLAST
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
SNP PETROM S.A.
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
SNN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA NUCLEARELECTRICA SA
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
FP. FONDUL PROPRIETATEA S.A. GDR (REG S)
RICHT RICHTER
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
CGEO GEORGIA CAPITAL
SF3 STS GROUP AG
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
KSPI KASPI KZ
PCF PCF GROUP SA
HUGE HUUUGE
4IG ALRO SLATINA
PCO 4IG NYRT
GPP PEPCO GROUP NV
2381 GRUPA PRACUJ DA
7202 ARABIAN DRILLING CO.
4071 ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
BOROUGE ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
BOROUGE
- Koray Pamir
Aygaz
2Q results review – Better than expected: Aygaz announced TL724m net income in 2Q23 (down 34% y/y and up 5% q/q) above the consensus estimate of TL543m (Ünlü:TL596m). Net sales increased by 2% y/y and decreased by 22% q/q to TL9,715m in 2Q23 (Consensus: TL10,883m; Ünlü: TL12,116m). EBITDA rose by 439% y/y and increased by 753% q/q to TL326m in 2Q23 versus the market consensus of TL159m and Ünlü estimate of TL110m led primarily by the strength of its domestic LPG mark-ups. Aygaz’s EBITDA margin i...
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: stellar performance from Greece
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
MOL MOL NYRT
CEZ CEZ AS
ACP ASSECO POLAND SA
KRKG KRKA D.D.
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
RBI RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL AG
YKBNK YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI A.S.
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
ISCTR TURKIYE IS BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI CLASS C
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
BIMAS BIM BIRLESIK MAGAZALAR A.S.
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
DOAS DOGUS OTOMOTIV SERVIS VE TICARET A.S.
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
AEFES ANADOLU EFES BIRACILIK VE MALT SANAYII A.S.
BRISA BRISA-BRIDGESTONE SABANCI LASTIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
LOGO LOGO YAZILIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CCC CCC SA
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
GTC GLOBE TRADE CENTRE S.A.
DOM DOM DEVELOPMENT SA
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
AUG1L AGROWILL GROUP AB
TTKOM TURK TELEKOMUNIKASYON A.S.
ENA ENEA S.A.
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
PGSUS.E PEGASUS HAVA TASIMACILIGI AS
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
TPEIR PIRAEUS BANK SA
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
THYAO TURK HAVA YOLLARI A.O.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
ECH ECHO INVESTMENT
GSPARK GRAPHISOFT PARK SE
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
DAT DATAWALK SA
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
VGO VIGO SYSTEM SA
BANK OF CYPRUS PCL
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
SAB1L SIAULIU BANKAS
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
ETEL TELECOM EGYPT
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
SNP PETROM S.A.
PBK PATRIA BANK SA
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
COTE CONPET SA
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
SNN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA NUCLEARELECTRICA SA
TEL C.N.T.E.E. TRANSELECTRICA
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
FP. FONDUL PROPRIETATEA S.A. GDR (REG S)
BVB S.C. BURSA DE VALORI BUCURESTI S.A.
TGN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE TRANSPORT GAZE NATURALE TRANSGAZ S.A.
RICHT RICHTER
19XX NEPI ROCKCASTLE PLC
ALPHA ALPHA BANK
M MED LIFE
PTKHY PETKIM PETROKIMYA HOLDING AS
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
CGEO GEORGIA CAPITAL
SOKM SOK MARKETLER TICARET AS
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
NLBR NLB GROUP
ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD
ENJSA ENERJISA ENERJI
SF3 STS GROUP AG
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
ADKO ADDIKO BANK
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
CZG CESKA ZBROJOVKA GROUP
DUNAHOUSE DUNA HOUSE
INPST INPOST S.A.
PCF PCF GROUP SA
HUGE HUUUGE
WINE ALRO SLATINA
4IG PURCARI WINERIES PCL
ONE 4IG NYRT
GPP KAZMUNAYGAS NC JSC
KLKIM ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
ADNOCDRILL GRUPA PRACUJ DA
2381 KALEKIM KIMYEVI MADDELER SANAYI VE TICARET AS
7202 ADNOC DRILLING CO
9526 ARABIAN DRILLING CO.
ELPE ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
JAHEZ INTERNATIONAL CO
HELLENIQ ENERGY
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
EM Credit Spark/EM credit weekly and trade ideas update
We expect some investor caution to remain in EM in the near term given the ongoing debt ceiling debate and fallout from the banking crisis, but some stability in US rates and the dollar should eventually give support to stronger performance for EM credit.
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: TUPRS TI; ELPE GA; MOH GA; PPC GA; RBI AV; DNP PW; ENJSA T...
HEADLINES: • Mediterranean refiners: the morning after (Tupras stays BUY, HELLENIQ Energy and Motor Oil Hellas downgraded to HOLD) • Public Power Corporation: managing the margins (upgraded to BUY) • Raiffeisen Bank International: strong 1Q23, upgrades 2023E guidance POSITIVE • Dino: minor beat in 1Q23 results POSITIVE • Enerjisa Enerji: 1Q23 results - strong cash flow and FY guidance announced POSITIVE • Piraeus Bank: positive first read on the 1Q23 results and updated guidance POSITIVE • My...
TITK TITAN CEMENT CO. SA
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
TPEIR PIRAEUS BANK SA
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
DAT DATAWALK SA
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
VGO VIGO SYSTEM SA
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
BVB S.C. BURSA DE VALORI BUCURESTI S.A.
SOKM SOK MARKETLER TICARET AS
ENJSA ENERJISA ENERJI
ELPE HELLENIQ ENERGY
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: CCOLA TI; VESBE TI; ESLT US; SNP RO; FP RO; Rear-View Mirr...
HEADLINES: • Coca-Cola Icecek: 1Q23 results - strong beat in operating performance POSITIVE • Vestel Beyaz: strong beat in 1Q23 results POSITIVE • Elbit Systems: management call highlights - improved outlook POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: amendments to the solidarity tax law introduced by the Senate POSITIVE • Fondul Proprietatea: to receive RON 867m dividends from Hidroelectrica • The Rear-View Mirror - EME markets: all geographies in the black, bar Turkey • Banca Transilvania: 1Q23E results preview ...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: MBK PW; EBS AV; MIL PW; OTKAR TI; TKFEN TI; GARAN TI; TUPR...
HEADLINES: • mBank: bottom-line miss due to costs, but opportunity to BUY NEGATIVE • Erste Bank: books strong 1Q23 results, ahead of expectations, tweaks up FY23E guidance POSITIVE • Bank Millennium: neutral 1Q23 results - profit reported, capital still needs time to recover NEUTRAL • Otokar: 1Q23 results - miss on EBITDA and net income levels NEGATIVE • Tekfen Holding: weak 1Q23 results, due to margin hit in chemicals and one-off tax charge NEGATIVE • Garanti: 1Q23 highlights - better than expe...
GARAN TURKIYE GARANTI BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
OMV OMV AG
BIMAS BIM BIRLESIK MAGAZALAR A.S.
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
GEKTERNA GEK TERNA
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
OTKAR OTOKAR OTOMOTIV VE SAVUNMA SANAYI A.S.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
TKFEN TEKFEN HOLDING
SNP PETROM S.A.
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
SOKM SOK MARKETLER TICARET AS
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
SHO SHOPER SA
- Koray Pamir
Erdemir
We have revised down our 12M TP for Erdemir by 8%, to TL40.0/share, mainly due to slightly lower EBITDA/tonne assumptions, implying 10% downside potential. Thus, we reiterate our Hold rating. We believe the following factors should prohibit a sustained outperformance in the near term 1) the recent strength in the share performance, particularly following the earthquakes, with a 7% outperformance over the past month and 13% YTD, increasing the share price performance gap vs. peers, 2) Potentially...
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