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ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Aalberts: highlights ING Benelux Conference Brussels 2024, Ackermans & Van Haaren: Highlights ING Benelux Conference Brussels,Ackermans & Van Haaren: Strong operational performance of underlying companies and guidance fine-tuned upwards, AMG: Highlights ING Benelux Conference Brussels, Aperam: Highlights ING Benelux Conference Brussels, Arcadis: Highlights ING Benelux conference, Azelis: Highlights ING Benelux Conference Brussels, Bekaert: Guidance cut and €200m buyback as sweetener, CFE: No new...

Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+3)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/13/2024

We maintain our Outperform rating on CaixaBank, one of our Top Picks in the sector, with a higher target of € 7.2 vs € 6.7 and ahead of the CMD on 19 November. We are lifting our net income estimates by 7% for 2025-2026, to 7% above the consensus. The strategic update is set to highlight the wisdom of the business model diversification (long-term savings) to address the current transition phase on rates. Despite a solid market performance, the profile does not look to be fully reflec...

Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+3)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 13/11/2024

Nous réitérons notre opinion Surperformance sur CaixaBank, l’un de nos top picks du secteur, avec un OC porté à 7.2 € vs 6.7 € et en amont du CMD du 19/11. Nous relevons nos anticipations de RN de 7% sur 2025/2026 qui ressortent 7% supérieures au consensus. L’update stratégique devrait mettre en avant la pertinence de la diversification du business model (épargne LT) face à la transition actuelle sur les taux. Malgré un solide parcours boursier, cela n’est pas pleinement reflété dans ...

Florent Laroche-Joubert ... (+3)
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Roy Külter
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : Spain: the PSOE and SUMAR looking to abolish the SOCIMI regime

>PSOE and Sumar spring a surprise in seeking to suddenly abolish the SOCIMI regime - On Monday 11 November, the PSOE reached a tax agreement with its Spanish government ally, “Sumar”, whereby the two parties want to abolish the SOCIMI REIT regime or at least part of its tax advantages. This sudden stance, which surprised Spanish property professionals, is thus different from the position that was presented just last week, namely to “encourage the construction of affor...

Florent Laroche-Joubert ... (+3)
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Roy Külter
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : Espagne : le PSOE et SUMAR souhaiteraient abolir le régime SOCI...

>PSOE et Sumar créent la surprise en voulant supprimer soudainement le régime SOCIMI - Ce lundi 11 novembre, le PSOE sont parvenus à un accord fiscal avec son allié au gouvernement espagnol, « Sumar », par lequel les deux partis veulent supprimer le régime SOCIMI ou au moins une partie de ses avantages fiscaux. Cette prise de position soudaine qui a crée la surprise auprès des professionnels de l’immobilier espagnol, diffère ainsi de la position qui était encore mise ...

Lynn Hautekeete
  • Lynn Hautekeete

Risk of SOCIMI abolishment Fear of the SOCIMI abolishment stresses Eur...

Yesterday Spanish media reported on the potential abolishment of the SOCIMI status. The proposal comes from PSOE (socialists) and Sumar (Left winged). This is the REIT regime for listed companies that alows for a tax exemption. If this is the case corporate income tax would increase from 0% to 25%. It is very important to note that this measure is not yet approved. There is no visiblity yet on a potential alternative system. Additionally, measurements (cost shifts) could be taken to decrease the...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Aalberts: Building already bottoming, industry tough. Air France-KLM: Nobody helps. Alfen: Covenant agreement, hikes output Smart Grid. AMG: Sweet for 2024F, sour for 2025F. ArcelorMittal: 3Q24 EBITDA beats by 6%, FCF solid. BAM: 3Q beats, on its way to reach FY guidance. CMB.TECH: 3Q and FY24 reasonable but then more challenges. D'Ieteren: EGM and dividend dates announced; Belron US peer Boyd disappointing 3Q24. GBL: Double-digit TSR expected over 2024-27F. KBC: 3Q better acro...

Guy Sips ... (+11)
  • Guy Sips
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Sharad Kumar S.P
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi

Dynamic Top Pick List Update November 2024 – Adding Azelis – Removing ...

With 2 changes in our Dynamic Top Pick list (we add Azelis and we remove Solvay) we maintain a defensive stance on the market for 2H24. The long anticipated interest rate cuts by central banks have finally started. The Trump election victory in the US does not bode well for European stocks as he favours a protectionist course. Although industrial companies with a US base could actually benefit. Cleantech names with exposure to the US could also suffer (unless owned by E.Musk). We expect the US ...

Sharad Kumar S.P
  • Sharad Kumar S.P

Holdings Report - October 2024 KBCS Holdings Universe Returns -2.5% Du...

1M Performance - Absolute: During Oct'24 (1M period), the KBCS Holdings Universe posted a return of -2.5% which was mainly driven by single-asset holdings (-2.8%) while multi-asset holdings  posted a slightly less negative return of -2.3%. The 3 top performers during the period were Financière de Tubize (+6.7%), D'Ieteren Group (+4.5%), and Solvac (+2.8%) while the 3 worst performers were Sofina (-11.4%), Gimv (-9.8%), and Compagnie du Bois Sauvage (-6.3%). YTD Performance - Relative: On a YTD ...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Adecco: 3Q24 miss; stabilising trends in 3Q24 and into 4Q24; accelerating cost savings. B&S Group: 3Q24 preview - liquor bottoming into 4Q24? Coca-Cola Europacific Partners: Almost the real thing. D'Ieteren: Belgian October car registrations down 5.5%, VW down 11%. Kinepolis: Oct US/Canada box office at 59% of pre Covid level, France recovery to 78%. Recticel: 3Q24 compares well with Kingspan. Renewi: 1H25 preview - battling cost inflation with self help. Syensqo: Slight beat on 3Q...

Michiel Declercq
  • Michiel Declercq

D'Ieteren Update on financing costs

This morning, D'Ieteren group provided an update on its financing costs after raising € 1.0bn in bank loans at the group level, hereby completing the final piece of the puzzle. In total, the refinancing will be a roughly € 30m headwind in FY24, mainly related to the additional charges at Belron (11 weeks impact), while the impact for the increased group debt & PHE refinancing will be marginal. D'Ieteren further mentioned that the charges are excluded from the mid-to-high single digit adj. PBT (...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Ageas: More bidders for ESURE UK ASR: Completion of KNAB sale, starting extra SBB D'Ieteren: Holding financing more costly, 2024 guidance (excluding financing) reassures Ebusco: Released from obligation to deliver 76 buses PostNL: 3Q24 below, FY24 outlook down, mail weak, parcels stronger; CEO steps down Sif Group: Preview - getting ready for 2025 Staffing: US temp volume weaker in October, Aug/Sep revised down, NFP jobs miss

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Aalberts: 3Q24 preview - no signs of recovery expected. AB InBev: All to play for in the final quarter. Arcadis: A mixed bag. Ayvens: Struggling to get out of neutral. dsm-firmenich: Taking your vitamins is healthy. D'Ieteren: Belron equity at €23.5bn, EV €32.2bn in minority shareholder transaction. Euronext: 3Q24 and CMD Preview. Flow Traders: Bumper harvest. Heijmans: 3Q24 as expected, keeps FY outlook in place. Proximus: Key politician pushing for major governance shake up. ...

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+6)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Wim Hoste

Morning Notes : ABI BB, ARCAD NA, ARGX BB, DIE BB, DSFIR NA, FLOW NA, ...

: ABI BB, ARCAD NA, ARGX BB, DIE BB, DSFIR NA, FLOW NA, GLPG NA, INGA NA, RECT BB

Michiel Declercq
  • Michiel Declercq

D'Ieteren Shareholder transaction values Belron at EV of € 32.2bn

D'Ieteren announced that Atessa, the holding company of ex-CEO Gary Lubner, has signed a binding agreement to sell 1.4% of its stake in Belron to existing minority shareholders (CD&R, H&F, GIC & Blackrock). The transaction values Belron at an EV of € 32.2bn and equity value of € 23.5bn (post dividend recap). This compares to an EV of € 21.0bn and equity value of € 17.2bn in 2021, when CD&R sold part of its stake to Blackrock, H&F & GIC. Note that since the 2021 transaction, Belron also distribut...

Jean-François Granjon ... (+2)
  • Jean-François Granjon
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 10/30/2024

The outcome of the US presidential election hangs in the balance, but the momentum seems to be with Donald Trump since the beginning of October: the candidate is now in the lead in six of the seven swing states, has just overtaken Kamala Harris in the national vote while 63% of punters are tipping him to win. We recap in the present note on the European stocks to play or avoid in the event of Donald Trump's victory and have also listed European stocks with a production base in the US,...

Jean-François Granjon ... (+2)
  • Jean-François Granjon
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 30/10/2024

Le scrutin présidentiel US reste incertain, mais le momentum semble être du côté de Donald Trump depuis début octobre : le candidat est désormais en tête dans 6 des 7 swing states, vient de dépasser Kamala Harris dans le vote national et est donné gagnant à 63% chez les parieurs. Nous rappelons les valeurs européennes à privilégier ou à éviter en cas de victoire de Donald Trump, et avons également listé les valeurs européennes ayant une base de production aux US, par nature moins expo...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Aedifica: Good top line, portfolio stabilising, guidance marginally revised upward. Ageas: China Taiping Life 3Q Solvency remains strong. ASM: 3Q24 results – That's a relief - FY25 guide narrowed upwards. Belgian Telecoms: Peer Telenet 3Q24 results, still losing shares. Fugro: Focus on EBITDA and orderbook. GBL: Kicking off its trainers and cashing in €0.6bn. Colruyt: To operate 100 OKay City stores by 2032F. Heijmans: Preview - Progressing well. KPN: VodafoneZiggo 3Q24 show still weak pe...

Guy Sips ... (+6)
  • Guy Sips
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
Lynn Hautekeete
  • Lynn Hautekeete

Aedifica Increases FY24 guidance by 1%, no surprises

Aedifica reports 3Q24 results and increases the guidance by 1.0%. This is driven by positive currency differences and an improving operational margin. The results are perfectly in line with our expectations as we were already slightly above the FY24 guidance. The total investment program amounts to EUR 236m of which a EUR 93.0m cost-to-come remains. If Aedifica wants to grow EPS in the next years, new projects should be added to the pipeline. In the 3Q24 results Aedifica guides additional EUR 5....

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