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Polar Capital Holdings: 1 director
A director at Polar Capital Holdings sold 5,000 shares at 526p and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...
- Paul Bryant
AUM and forecasts up, stellar returns, positive flows
AUM jumped £2.3bn (+12%) over Q4 of FY24 to £21.9bn on 31 Mar 24, which is 12% above our previous forecast of £19.5bn, and +14% y-o-y growth (AUM 31 Mar 23: £19.2bn). In turn, our FY24 revenue forecast increases from £188.4m to £191.6m (+5% y-o-y, FY23: £182.9m). PBT rose from £50.1m to £52.1m (+15% y-o-y, FY23: £45.2m) and basic EPS from 38.3p to 39.8p (+8% y-o-y, FY23: 36.8p). The EPS revision translates to a forward PER of just 11.5x Investment performance was the booster for AUM in Q4, add...
- Paul Bryant
Forecasts up on jump in performance fees
AUM grew £0.43bn or 2.2% over Q3 of FY24 (01 Oct 23 - 31 Dec 23) to £19.56bn and is now slightly above our previous £19.40bn forecast for the 31 Mar 24 FY-end. Investment performance was exceptionally strong in the quarter, contributing +£1.51bn or +7.9% of opening AUM. This was despite a currency headwind which would have depressed GBP AUM levels of USD holdings (GBP/USD +4% over Q3 from 1.22 to 1.27). Performance fee profits (net of staff allocations) jumped from the previous marked-to-market...
- Paul Bryant
Navigating tough markets better than most
AUM was slightly down by -0.4% to £19.1bn over H1-24 (to 30 Sep 23). This was however a relatively strong performance compared to most other asset managers. Amidst widespread sector outflows, only two from an 11-strong London-listed peer group outperformed Polar on AUM movement over H1, with some recording falls of more than 10% (see page 2). Investment performance was +£546m, net flows -£581m, and fund closures -£50m. Average AUM was up on H2-23 but down y-o-y from £20.0bn in H1-23 to £19.4bn,...
- Paul Bryant
Solid H1 amidst sharp sector share-price falls
AUM was slightly down (-0.4%) to £19.14bn over H1-24 (to 30 Sep 23), with a -2.9% fall in Q2 (Jul-Sep) following the +2.6% gain of Q1 (Apr-Jun). Investment performance was positive at +£546m (-£154m in Q2, and +£700m in Q1), net flows negative at -£581m (Q2: -£380m; Q1: -£201m), while fund closures reduced AUM by £50m. We reduce our FY24 & FY25 forecasts due to AUM and marked-to-market performance fees being lower than prior forecast: end-FY24 AUM f’cast is now £19.4bn (prev. £20.7bn), FY24 rev...
- Paul Bryant
Investment returns mean that FY24 starts well
AUM was up 3% over Q1 of FY24, from £19.2bn on 31 Mar 23 to £19.7bn on 30 Jun 23. Investment returns were strong over the quarter, contributing +£700m (+4%) to AUM growth. Net flows were negative at -£201m, but the trend continues to improve from the technology sector driven outflows of calendar year 2022 (we remind readers that over FY23 to 31 Mar 23, technology strategies accounted for £1.2bn of the £1.6bn total net outflows). The closure of the Melchior European Absolute Return fund also decr...
- Paul Bryant
Tough FY23, outlook improving for flows & returns
In FY23 (to 31 Mar 23), market conditions created strong headwinds for asset managers, especially those with a growth equities bias like Polar. AUM declined 13% from £22.1bn to £19.2bn, with net outflows of - £1.6bn (FY22: + £0.4bn), investment performance of - £0.9bn (FY22: +£0.9bn); and fund closures of - £0.5bn. However, the story of the year was certainly not entirely negative, but mixed, with an improving picture towards year-end and also post-year-end (although we caution that economic and...
- Paul Bryant
AUM up 4% in strong Q4, inflows for many strategies
Polar’s final quarter of FY23 (to 31 Mar 23) was a strong one, with AUM up by £0.75bn (+4%) to £19.2bn, driven mostly by an investment performance contribution of +£1.2bn (+6% of opening AUM). Net flows of -£410m were recorded but these were almost all down to profit taking from the Global Insurance fund (-£373m) which has delivered significant outperformance. Year-end AUM has exceeded our previous forecast of £18.3bn. While the Q4 uptick in AUM doesn’t have a big impact on our FY23 financial...
- Paul Bryant
AUM slightly down, FY23 forecasts unchanged
AUM fell 1.6% over Q3 of FY23 (to 31 Dec 22) to £18.47bn. Over the first nine months of the FY the AUM fall totalled 16%, although this was heavily impacted by the significant sell off in technology stocks in Q1 (Apr – Jun 22). Net outflows totalled £304m during the quarter, lower than the £529m recorded in Q2 and the £316m of Q1. Market movements and investment performance contributed +£19m over the quarter (Q2: +£342m; Q1: -£2,393m). The closure of Phaeacian mutual funds in Q1 resulted in a -£...
- Paul Bryant
Core profit margin still over 30% in brutal markets
AUM fell 15% in H1-23, from £22.1bn on 1 Apr 22 to £18.8bn on 30 Sep 22. Unsurprisingly, given the widespread sell-off in equities, investment performance accounted for -£2.1bn of the fall, with net outflows of -£0.8bn, and the closure of the Phaeacian funds in the US -£0.5bn. • Despite gloomy markets, there are multiple positive signals and signs of management confidence: • Positive net inflows were recorded in multiple funds, including Global Insurance, Biotechnology, Healthcare Blue Chip, Sm...
- Paul Bryant
Small AUM decline in Q2, inflows in non-tech funds
AUM fell 1.0% over Q2 of FY23 (to 30 Sep 22) to £18.77bn (-15.1% over H1). Net flows totalled -£529m during the quarter (-£845m over H1), with market movements and investment performance contributing +£342m to AUM (-£2,051 over H1). The closure of Phaeacian mutual funds in Q1 resulted in a -£459 impact on AUM. Given continuing market uncertainty and outflows, our end-FY23 AUM forecast reduces to £18.3bn (previously £19.0bn). We do however highlight that because of market volatility we have not ...
- Paul Bryant
Outflows slow in Q1 but markets drive AUM lower
AUM fell £3.17bn or 14% over Q1 of FY23, from £22.12bn on 31 Mar 22 to £18.95bn on 30 Jun 22. This fall was actually a little less than we had expected, given the very sharp falls in equity markets over the quarter: the MSCI ACWI fell 15.5%, and the Dow Jones Global Technology Index fell 23.4% (technology strategies made up 42% of Polar’s AUM on 31 Mar 22). Outflows from Polar’s technology funds slowed from £630m in Q422 to £380m. We would highlight this slowdown in outflows as a significant de...
- Paul Bryant
Polar Capital: Impressive FY22 despite market & AUM falls in Q4
Driven by a 37% increase in average AUM (from £16.7bn to £22.8bn), gross investment management fees* grew 33% from £157m to £210m. However, a drop in performance-related revenue from £44m in FY21 (a bumper year) to £14m slowed total revenue growth to 11% (£224m v £202m in FY21). Core operating profit (excl. perf. fees, other income, exceptional items and tax) jumped 35% from £52m to £69m while PBT fell from £76m to £62m, with the fall mainly as a result of the reduction in performance-related pr...
- Paul Bryant
Solid year despite market dip paring AUM in Q4
The market turbulence of the first quarter of 2022 (Q4 of Polar’s FY22) has taken some of the shine off an otherwise strong year. But only some of the shine. While Q4 saw a £1.9bn or 8% drop in AUM from £24.0bn on 31 Dec 21 to £22.1bn on 31 Mar 22, over the full FY22 (Apr 21 to Mar 22) AUM grew £1.3bn or 6% (end-FY21: £20.9bn). The dip in AUM makes only a small difference to our FY22 projections. As revenue is mostly a function of average AUM throughout the year, it is not hugely sensitive to a...
- Paul Bryant
On track to meet full-year AUM forecast
AUM reached £24.3bn on 31 Dec 21, nine months into the financial year, up £3.4bn or 17% over the period (1 Apr 21: £20.9bn), and 28% y-o-y (31 Dec 20: £19.0bn). Polar once again delivered a strong investment performance - its main differentiator and competitive advantage - which accounted for £2.6bn of the AUM increase. Net inflows were solid at £0.8bn. This growth is largely in line with the trajectory required to meet our FY22 year-end forecast of £25.5bn. Performance fee profits (net of sta...
- Paul Bryant
Q1 AUM ahead of forecast
AUM grew by £4.1bn over Q1 of FY22 (1 Oct 21 – 30 Sep 22), reaching £41.4bn on 31 Dec 21, 11% up over the quarter and 64% up y-o-y (AUM on 31 Dec 20 £25.2bn). Particularly pleasing is the continuation of strong net AUM inflows, which totalled £2.0bn for the quarter. Growth from market movements and investment performance was also very strong, totalling £2.1bn. Impax’s quarterly growth is ahead of our forecasted trajectory for FY22 (average quarterly AUM growth of just under £2bn, with AUM reac...
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- Paul Bryant
Strong H1, AUM growth continues post-results
We knew momentum was strong on an absolute basis in H1 22 with AUM reaching £23.4bn on 30 Sep 21, 12% up over H1 (31 Mar 21: £20.9bn) and 43% up y-o-y (30 Sep 20: £16.4bn). Now, with most asset managers and platforms having reported AUM for the July-Sept quarter, growth looks impressive compared to peers too. Polar had the 4th highest organic AUM growth (out of 15) in the 6 months to 30 Sep, and the 3rd highest over 12 months. Growth has continued in H2 with AUM reaching £25.0bn on 12 Nov. We i...
- Paul Bryant
Another leap in scale and outlook still strong
FY21 (to 30 Sept) saw Impax continuing to scale at a pace unmatched by any UK-listed asset manager, and the broader sustainable investing market. AUM reached £37.2bn, 84% up from 30 Sep 20 (£20.2bn). By 31 Oct 21 AUM grew another 4.6% to £38.9bn Financial results for FY21 were hugely impressive with revenue up 64% to £143.1m (higher than our previous forecast of £139.4m) and adjusted operating profit* up 140% to £55.8m (again higher than our previous forecast of £49.7m, and providing evidence ...
- Paul Bryant
H1 ahead of forecast and further push into sustainables
Polar has maintained its growth momentum in H1 of FY22 with AUM reaching £23.4bn on 30 Sep 21, 12% up over the half-year (31 Mar 21: £20.9bn) and 43% up year-on-year (30 Sep 20: £16.4bn). It has already surpassed our original end-FY22 AUM forecast of £23.1bn. We also see huge potential for the new Sustainable Thematic Equities team (with newly launched Smart Energy and Smart Mobility funds) to contribute to maintaining the growth momentum. We maintain our fair value of 1305p per share for now,...
- Paul Bryant
Inflows main contributor to 84% AUM growth in FY21
Impax continues to scale at a pace unmatched by UK-listed asset managers. AUM grew to £37.2bn on 30 Sep (end of FY21), 84% up on the FY20 close of £20.2bn. Net inflows accounted for £10.7bn (63%) of the increase, with market movements accounting for £6.4bn (37%). Q4 inflows of £1.5bn show continuing impressive momentum in winning new business. Over FY21, average quarterly inflows were £2.6bn, 204% up on the £865m average of FY20, which was in turn 251% up on the FY19 average of £345m. With t...
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