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Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Japanese Telcos - Takeaways from Meetings with the Japanese Telcos + R...

We met with all 3 of the incumbent Japanese Telcos & Rakuten in Tokyo this week. Every time we visit, we are reminded of how much better the telco industry is in Japan vs other DMs, as the MNOs continue to expand their scope of operations beyond traditional telco driving higher returns and growth.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Rakuten (Reduce, TP: ¥400, -57%) Softer net additions to be expected ...

Today, Rakuten Mobile launched a new mobile plan aimed at seniors (65 years old and above). In addition, an update on its mobile subscribers figure reflected a slowdown in net additions, which was behind consensus and our forecasts for Q3. We share our thoughts below.

Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad ... (+8)
  • Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Damon Shen
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Llelleythan Tan Tan
  • Paula Ruth
  • Thanawat Thangchadakorn

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, September 12, 2024

GREATER CHINA Sector Hong Kong Property Results wrap-up for Hong Kong developers: Navigating the cycle. INDONESIA Update XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,270/Target: Rp2,900) Fixed broadband ARPU might increase by 10% post-acquisition of ServeCo. MALAYSIA Sector Utilities A strong 2Q24 with companies coming in broadly within expe...

Keith Wee Teck Keong
  • Keith Wee Teck Keong

Banking - Positive Outlook Priced In; Focus On Quality Laggards

Positive Outlook Priced In; Focus On Quality Laggards The sector posted a muted 2Q24 PPOP growth of 3% yoy (down 2% qoq). With the sector trading at 1.0SD above its historical mean P/B and earnings growth lagging the KLCI, much of the favourable macro-outlook appears to be priced in. Although stock prices are likely to continue trending upwards with sustained foreign inflows, we maintain MARKET WEIGHT and recommend shifting to high-quality laggards with Public Bank and Hong Leong Bank as our pre...

Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad ... (+9)
  • Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • John Cheong Ming Chern
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Kasemsun Koonnara
  • Keith Wee Teck Keong
  • Malaysia Research Team
  • Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Tham Mun Hon

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, September 11, 2024

GREATER CHINA Economics Trade Exports rebounded in August but outlook remains challenging. Sector IT Hardware Maintain preference for the more defensive AI-device plays as uncertainty remains high. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. INDONESIA Update Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ/HOLD/Rp7,250/Target: Rp7,760) 7M24: Strong ...

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+17)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Jack Goh Tooan Orng
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Kasemsun Koonnara
  • Keith Wee Teck Keong
  • Ken Lee
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Llelleythan Tan Tan
  • Paula Ruth
  • Ringo Tang Chi Yu
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Sunny Chen
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, August 30, 2024

GREATER CHINA Results BYD Electronic (285 HK/BUY/HK$27.65/Target: HK$42.50)                                  1H24: Results missed on margins. Expect peak season to bolster profitability in 2H24. China Feihe (6186 HK/BUY/HK$4.04/Target: HK$5.22)                                        1H24: Steady profit growth; accelerated revenue expansion in 2H24. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/HOLD/HK$6.16/Target: HK$6.10)                     1H24: Below expectations; power generation dragged by low wind speed. ...

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+2)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Singapore Research Team

Strategy - Potential Impact Of Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech

After Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on 23 August, we see a turning point starting with a US Fed rate cut in Sep 24 and lower rates heading into 2025. In the Singapore market, REITs and the property sector should benefit, as should highly-geared companies and those looking to recycle capital. Our current forecasts have incorporated lower NIMs for banks which we believe are protected by their high dividend yields.

FR FIRST INDUSTRIAL REALTY TRUST INC.
AES AES CORPORATION
G13 GENTING SINGAPORE
FCT FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST
CC3 STARHUB LTD
S63 SINGAPORE TECHNOLOGIES ENGINEERING LTD
544 CSE GLOBAL LTD.
D05 DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
C09 CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED
S68 SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LTD.
CENT CENTRATAMA TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA
V03 VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED
U96 SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD.
F34 WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
BN2 VALUETRONICS HOLDINGS
B8O YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING (HOLDINGS) LTD.
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
C52 COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LIMITED
C6L SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD.
Z74 SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
Y92 THAI BEVERAGE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
AP4 RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS
BN4 KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED
VALUE VALUE8 N.V.
SE SEA ADS
SATS SP SATS LTD.
CDREIT CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS
SUN SUNTECH SA
KREIT KEPPEL REIT
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
FEHT FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
NETLINK NETLINK NBN TRUST
SIE SIA ENGINEERING CO LTD
BAL BUMITAMA AGRI LTD
PREIT PARKWAYLIFE REAL ESTATE
SPOST SINGAPORE POST LTD
MINT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
FHT FRASERS HOSPITALITY TRUST
SSG SHENG SIONG GROUP LTD
RFMD RAFFLES MEDICAL GROUP LTD
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
TGIF 1933 INDUSTRIES
RSTON RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS LTD
FRKN FRENCKEN GROUP LTD
MPM MARCO POLO MARINE LTD
CICT CAPITALAND INTEGRATED COMMERCIAL TRUST
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
FLT FRASERS LOGISTICS & COMMERCIAL TRUST
SE US SEA LIMITED
CVL CIVMEC
DCREIT DIGITAL CORE REIT
CLI CAPITALAND INVESTMENT LTD
MPACT MAPLETREE PAN ASIA COMMERCIAL TRUST
123F 123FAHRSCHULE SE
BCOW 1895 BANCORP OF WISCONSIN INC
CLAS CAPITALAND ASCOTT TRUST
CLAR CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
DFI DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
STM SEATRIUM LTD
EPIC 1CM INC
Z29 029 GROUP SE
PAN SP PAN-UNITED CORPORATION (PAN SP)
Bella Lu Yifei ... (+8)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Kate Luang
  • Ken Lee
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Sunny Chen

Greater China Daily: Thursday, August 22, 2024

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Crystal International (2232 HK/BUY/HK$3.54/Target: HK$4.92) Crystal’s 1H24 net profit grew 14.1% yoy to US$84m, representing 44% of our full-year estimate. Interim DPS almost tripled to 13.8 HK cents and interim payout ratio reached 60%. Management has turned more positive on 2024-25 as it almost doubled its 2024 labour addition target, and is confident on registering a 20% gross margin in the coming years. We raise dividend payout forecast to 60% in 2024-26 and expect...

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global Towers Digital Bridge to acquire JTower. Very brief thoughts a...

Digital Bridge has announced a tender offer for the shares of JTower, the leading Japanese Tower Company. Although the valuation is fairly low, we would not see that as bearish for Global Towers. Thoughts and implications below.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Japanese Telcos Q1 FY24 review: Softbank outperforming

Incumbents led a faster service revenue growth in Q1 driven by non-mobile, with Softbank ahead. Industry mobile growth kept steady but the continued divergence in mobile trend between NTT and peers appears to confirm the benefits of integrated financial services. Softbank was the notable share gainer this quarter (1.1% MSR gain sequentially), having grown its mobile ARPU for the first time since FY19.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Rakuten (Reduce, TP: ¥400, -48%) Q2 24 Quick Take: Mixed, surprising ...

Despite beating on topline sparked by Fintech, overall profitability was still below expectations. While Mobile has seen improvements, pace of improvement remains too slow in our view to justify the share price. ARPU continues to lack traction.

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+24)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Jack Goh Tooan Orng
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kampon Akaravarinchai
  • Kasemsun Koonnara
  • Kate Luang
  • Ken Lee
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Krit Tanarattananon
  • Ming San Soong
  • Philip Wong
  • Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Thailand Research Team
  • Thanawat Thangchadakorn
  • Wei Xiang Ku

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, August 02, 2024

GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls We expect stimulus to be announced in August and add COSCO Shipping Ports, Haier Smart Home, and KE Holdings to our BUY list and add SELL call on WuXi Bio, and XPeng. Small-Mid Cap Monthly Reiterate BUY on Crystal amid share price pullback; eyes on interim dividend surprise. Sector Automobile ...

MAJOR MAJOR CINEPLEX GROUP PCL
TFG THAIFOODS GROUP
600690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS A
02313 SHENZHOU INTERNATIONAL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
300014 EVE ENERGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
IZZ TAL EDUCATION GROUP SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
TWOU 2U INC.
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
FCT FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST
ASM PACIFIC TECHNOLOGY LIMITED
U11 UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD. (SINGAPORE)
ERW ERAWAN GROUP
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
TU THAI UNION GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
C6L SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD.
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
AW9U FIRST REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
BN4 KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
002340 GEM CO. LTD. CLASS A
5Z0 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
CPN CENTRAL PATTANA PUBLIC CO. LTD.
01316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
01585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
CDREIT CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS
PENT PENTAMASTER CORP BHD
SUN SUNTECH SA
KREIT KEPPEL REIT
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
FEHT FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
MTC MUANGTHAI CAPITAL PCL
PREIT PARKWAYLIFE REAL ESTATE
MINT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
FNH FRASER & NEAVE HOLDINGS BHD
CPALL TB CP ALL
SASSR SASSEUR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
RATCH RATCH GROUP PUBLIC CO. LTD.
MUST MANULIFE US REAL ESTATE INV
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
OSP OSOTSPA PUBLIC CO. LTD.
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
TGIF 1933 INDUSTRIES
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
UHU UNITED HAMPSHIRE US REIT
01876 BUDWEISER BREWING CO. APAC LTD.
1199 COSCO SHIPPING PORTS LIMITED
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
CICT CAPITALAND INTEGRATED COMMERCIAL TRUST
SCGP SCG PACKAGING PCL
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
2269 WUXI BIOLOGICS (CAYMAN) INC.
FLT FRASERS LOGISTICS & COMMERCIAL TRUST
KORE KEPPEL PACIFIC OAK US REIT
CTOS CTOS DIGITAL BHD
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
DCREIT DIGITAL CORE REIT
MPACT MAPLETREE PAN ASIA COMMERCIAL TRUST
123F 123FAHRSCHULE SE
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
BCOW 1895 BANCORP OF WISCONSIN INC
CLAS CAPITALAND ASCOTT TRUST
CLAR CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
PRIME PRIME ROAD POWER PUBLIC CO LTD
2232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
Z29 029 GROUP SE
02015 LI AUTO INC
09868 XPENG INC
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
BTG BETAGRO PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
600699 JOYSON ELECTRONICS CORP
PEKAT PEKAT GROUP BHD
1523 PLOVER BAY TECHNOLOGIES LTD (1523 HK)
Jack Goh Tooan Orng ... (+14)
  • Jack Goh Tooan Orng
  • Jack Lai Yuan Khai
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kasemsun Koonnara
  • Keith Wee Teck Keong
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Ming San Soong
  • Paula Ruth
  • Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Singapore Research Team
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Tham Mun Hon
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, August 01, 2024

GREATER CHINA Economics PMI Stuck in a soft patch. Results New Oriental Education & Technology Group (EDU US/BUY/US$69.25/Target: US$90.00) 4QFY24: Earnings miss; impact from East Buy to carve out after 1QFY25. Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK/HOLD/HK$3.71/Target: HK$4.00) 1H24: In line; murky demand outlook ahead. Downgrade to HOLD. Update Prudential (2378 HK/BUY/HK$69.90/Target: HK$12...

Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man

China IT Hardware: AI Investments To Remain Elevated But Edge AI Plays...

We are shifting our preference to edge AI picks, as we see an improved visibility on the recovery in global smartphone and PC shipment in 2H24. With this, coupled with the pick-up in AI device shipment towards year-end and a more undemanding valuation, we expect edge AI plays to outperform the AI infrastructure supply chain, which is now under pressure from profit-taking, and mounting geopolitical risks. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top picks: Lenovo and BYDE.

Arsit Pamaranont ... (+11)
  • Arsit Pamaranont
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Kampon Akaravarinchai
  • Ken Lee
  • Krit Tanarattananon
  • Llelleythan Tan Tan
  • Nurul Nazira Binti Abdullah
  • Paula Ruth
  • Philip Wong

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, July 18, 2024

GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PEV sales down 4% yoy but up 8% wow during 8-14 July, in line. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL and Tuopu. Top SELL: XPeng. INDONESIA Update Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ/BUY/Rp3,250/Target: Rp4,200) 2024 fixed broadband revenue to see moderate growth of 8% yoy; maintain BUY. MALAYSIA Results Alpha IVF (ALPHA MK/BUY/RM0.32/Target: RM0.40) ...

Vikash Harlalka
  • Vikash Harlalka

2Q24 Broadband Preview

Broadband industry growth has slowed over the last couple of quarters. For 2Q24, we expect reported broadband net adds below last year and pre-pandemic levels. We estimate that after adjusting for the one-time impact of ACP related disconnects, net adds were still below last year but were in-line with pre-pandemic levels. We think consensus expectations for the quarter are a little too negative, especially for Cable, and we expect reported adds to be slightly better than expectations.

Andy Hanson ... (+3)
  • Andy Hanson
  • Carl Smith
  • Robin Byde

Industrials Round-up - 08 July 2024

The UK industrial sector continues to strengthen with June output and order books increasing for a second consecutive month, albeit at a slightly slower pace than in May. We think it is too soon to declare conclusively a turnaround, but recent industrial and economic data have been reassuring, as inflation returned to the BoE’s 2% target and sentiment remained positive.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Japanese Telcos Q4 FY23 review: Diverging mobile

Service revenue trends for the three incumbents were faster as mobile inflected, coupled with improvements in non-mobile. Meanwhile, the sector’s EBITDA grew strongly which was well flagged in Q3. Divergence in mobile trend appears to confirm the benefits of integrated financial services with mobile as NTT and peers diverged further; former extended its decline while peers accelerated to near 3% YoY.

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Internet: Revisiting Japan’s Internet Pioneers?

Pelham Smithers muses whether it is time to reappraise Japan’s internet pioneers.

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+9)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Jack Goh Tooan Orng
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kasemsun Koonnara
  • Ken Lee
  • Ming San Soong
  • Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, June 14

GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: EV sales pull back last week. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Tuopu and Joyson Electronics. Top SELLs: XPeng. Internet Strategic revamp to foster re-accelerating growth and shareholders’ return. INDONESIA Update Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN IJ/BUY/Rp1,240/Target: Rp1,700) ...

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