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Carole Braudeau
  • Carole Braudeau

Credit Morning 11/21/2024

Fnac Darty: Vesa Equity Investment's stake rises to 30.8% without triggering the takeover threshold>...

Carole Braudeau
  • Carole Braudeau

Morning Crédit 21/11/2024

Fnac Darty : Vesa Equity Investment monte à 30,8% du capital sans déclencher le seuil d’OPA>...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Morning (21 November 2024)

HEADLINES: • PZU: 3Q24 not as weak as feared – once the special claims end, should deliver a very strong profitability profile POSITIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: 3Q24 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 13% yoy, 2% above our estimate POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj: 3Q24 results – adjusted EBITDA up 8% yoy, 3% above our forecast and 6% above the consensus POSITIVE • OPAP: 3Q24 earnings beat expectations, as EBITDA jumps 24% yoy POSITIVE • Motor Oil Hellas: 3Q24 results – CCS EBITDA in line NEUTRAL • Elbit Syste...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: AEGN GA; GTC PW; AQ RO; GEV CP; HSBK LI; BFT PW; MOH GA; K...

HEADLINES: • Aegean Airlines: high net cash position and strong FCFF yield (upgraded to BUY) • GTC: buys German residential portfolio worth EUR 448m • Aquila Part Prod Com S.A.: gross margin and wage costs weigh on the 3Q24 results NEUTRAL • GEVORKYAN: 3Q24 broadly in line with our expectations; new signed contracts for defence and high-tech industries NEUTRAL • Halyk Bank: 3Q24 highlights – solid, on the back of better-than-expected NIM • Benefit Systems: 3Q24 call takeaways – strong long-term ...

Bram Buring ... (+2)
  • Bram Buring
  • CFA

WOOD Flash – Aquila Part Prod Com S.A.: gross margin and wage costs we...

Aquila has delivered solid top-line growth in 3Q24, with revenues up 23% yoy and +20% for 9M24. Parmafood and Romtech contributed RON 122m to the top line in 9M24; excluding this, we calculate that the organic growth was c.13% yoy for the first nine months and c.11% in 3Q24. This quarter, the sales growth came primarily from the organised channel, which affected the gross margin negatively in the quarter. This, combined with higher wage costs, which grew by 32% yoy – driven by two subsequent hik...

Jakub Caithaml ... (+2)
  • Jakub Caithaml
  • Peter Palovic

Aegean Airlines: high net cash position and strong FCFF yield (upgrade...

We have upgraded our rating for Aegean Airlines to BUY (from Hold), following the recent dip in the share price. We adjust our 12M price target (PT) to EUR 11.3/share, only slightly higher than the former level (EUR 11.0/share), driven mainly by incorporating a marginally more constructive outlook on fares next year. This reflects comments made by several airlines, which have reported in recent weeks, which are pointing towards a more constructive outlook for pricing, as persistent shortages of ...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: BFT PW; PBK RO; CAR PW; FTSHP CP; AEGN GA; SFG RO; CBF PW;...

HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: 3Q24 in line with our forecasts; solid trading update; 2025E outlook and 2025-27E strategy POSITIVE • Patria Bank: strong 3Q24 results POSITIVE • Inter Cars: 3Q24 EBITDA 1-4% below our and the market's expectations NEUTRAL • Footshop (NOT RATED): solid 3Q24; 2024E guidance boosted POSITIVE • Aegean Airlines: 3Q24 – flat RASK, CASKX up 14%; 27% lower EBIT, on 4% lower ASK (in line) NEUTRAL • Sphera Group: 3Q24 post-results webcast takeaways POSITIVE • cyber_Folks: ke...

Jakub Caithaml
  • Jakub Caithaml

WOOD Flash – Aegean Airlines: 3Q24 – flat RASK, CASKX up 14%; 27% lowe...

Aegean's results were broadly in line with our estimates. The company flew 4% less ASK in 3Q24 compared to last summer. With a flat RASK, the revenue mirrored the ASK decline – slightly better than the 1% RASK contraction we had pencilled in. The ex-fuel CASK increased by 14%, driven by a combination of personnel costs and inefficiencies connected to groundings. This pushed the EBIT 27% lower yoy. Our 2024E forecast (where we pencil in the EBIT at EUR 205m) seems reasonable, in view of the 9M24 ...

Krisztian Karikas
  • Krisztian Karikas

Consistent growth in Q3, net profit boosted by Spanish network sale

DIGI has reported its Q3 2024 earnings today morning. Revenues increased by 14.2% YoY, mainly driven by the Spanish segment where the revenue increased by 22.1% YoY. While the OPEX and DD&A both increased YoY, the EBIT came in ten times higher at EUR 447mn driven by an EUR 390mn other income coming from the partial sale of its Spanish FTTH network. EBITDA arrived at 565.4 in Q3, up by 276% YoY and Net profit rose to EUR 342.8mn from last year’s EUR 13mn.

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: 11B PW; SFG RO; AEGN GA; ELPE GA; HTO GA; SNG RO; MTELEKOM...

HEADLINES: • 11 bit studios: 3Q24 surprises slightly positively, but ytd Frostpunk 2 sales disappoint NEGATIVE • Sphera Group: small beat in 3Q24 – new Cioccolatitaliani franchise signed for Italy POSITIVE • Aegean Airlines: 3Q24 – flat RASK, CASKX up 14%; 27% lower EBIT, on 4% lower ASK (in line) NEUTRAL • HELLENiQ Energy: 3Q24 results and interim dividend NEUTRAL • OTE: 3Q24 results review – soft quarter, with flat yoy adjusted EBITDA, in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Romgaz: 3Q24 results N...

Felix Fischer ... (+7)
  • Felix Fischer
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Ian Wong
  • Jayanth Kandalam
  • Peter Low
  • Si Yong Ng
  • Tanvi Arora

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Air Baltic, Aggreko, PHM Group, Rekeep, Hapag-Lloyd, Bite, Applus, Iliad, Digi Communications, Kem One, Axactor, Nomad Foods (Iglo), Premier Foods, CBR Fashion, Telecom Italia, Boparan, Altice France (SFR), Ineos, Ineos Quattro, Casino Guichard-Perrachon

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Digi (Equal Weight) Q3 24: Capex up; Belgium/Portugal updates (not go...

Digi has reported a good set of Q2 numbers vs expectations, with EBITDAaL +11% ahead of consensus. 2024 capex guidance has though been lifted for the third quarter in a row, and new guidance for 2025 is well ahead of our model.

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: EAT PW; EUR PW; CBF PW; MBR PW; ALE PW; VRC PW; TEN PW; PK...

HEADLINES: • AmRest: 3Q24 in line, on a EUR 9m positive one-off NEGATIVE • Eurocash: 3Q24 weak, as expected; FY25E guidance cancelled NEGATIVE • cyber_Folks: 3Q24 results review – 26% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth, 2% above our estimate POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: 3Q24 EBITDA up 26% yoy, 22-28% above our and the market's expectations POSITIVE • Allegro: 3Q24 EBITDA beat, but yoy decline guided for 4Q24E, due to international operations NEUTRAL • Vercom: 3Q24 results - 28% yoy EBITDA growth, in line with ou...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: EXAE GA; EME Macro/Strategy – Central Asia and the Caucasu...

HEADLINES: • Athens Exchange Group: set sail to dividend wonderland (BUY - transfer of coverage) • EME Macro/Strategy: Central Asia and the Caucasus – USD 1,000bn GDP by 2030! • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one – the Year-Ahead issue • Graphisoft Park: 3Q24 – on course for another good year POSITIVE • Bank Handlowy: rather neutral set of 3Q24 results NEUTRAL • Pegasus Airlines: 3Q24 – 22% higher CASKX alleviated by 4% higher RASK and 12% lower fuel CASK (in line with the consensus) • Bank of...

Jakub Caithaml
  • Jakub Caithaml

WOOD Flash – Pegasus Airlines: 3Q24 – 22% higher CASKX alleviated by 4...

Pegasus’ reported results missed our estimates, but were broadly in line with the consensus collected by the company. The EBIT, a proxy for earnings (as it is unaffected by the non-cash FX gains and losses), was 5% lower yoy in 3Q24. Revenues were up by 13% yoy, driven by 9% ASK growth and a 4% stronger RASK. This was offset by the steep increase in costs. The ex-fuel cask (CASKX) was up 22%, driven chiefly by growth in personnel costs. This was alleviated partly by the fuel CASK, which was down...

Haidje Rustau ... (+6)
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Ian Wong
  • Jayanth Kandalam
  • Peter Low
  • Si Yong Ng
  • Trung Nguyen

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: PHM Group, Rekeep, Air Baltic, Telecom Italia, Digi Communications, Huhtamaki, Boels, Nomad Foods (Iglo), Arxada, Ardagh, Softbank Group, Samvardhana Motherson, Borr Drilling, Iceland Foods

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Altice International (Over weight) Digi (Equal weight) NOS (Neutral, T...

Digi launched in Portugal, one week ago – read our take HERE. In this report we look at how the launch has been received in Portugal (including a run-through of tariff changes by the incumbents).

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: BIMAS TI; CEZ CP; PGSUS TI; RICHT HB; APR PW; SNP RO; PPC ...

HEADLINES: • BIM: weak operating results in 3Q24 NEGATIVE • CEZ: 3Q24 bottom-line miss due to accounting changes; EBITDA guidance raised by 7% POSITIVE • Pegasus Airlines: 3Q24 – 22% higher caskx alleviated by 4% higher RASK and 12% lower fuel cask (in line with the consensus) • Richter: 3Q24 operating results in line NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: preliminary 3Q24 EBIT falls 22% yoy, 9-12% below our expectations and the market NEGATIVE • Auto Partner: October sales growth at 13% yoy, broadly as expect...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: OTP HB; CCC PW; DNP PW; INPST NA; MOL HB; WIZZ LN; EUROB G...

HEADLINES: • OTP Bank: solid 3Q24 results, in line with our forecasts; future share price performance depends on growth guidance and/or capital distribution NEUTRAL • CCC: historically-best quarterly EBITDA 9% above our expectations, due to opex control POSITIVE • Dino Polska: 4-8% EBITDA beats in 3Q24, EBITDA back on the rise POSITIVE • InPost: 3Q24 in line with expectations; FY24E guidance upgrade POSITIVE • MOL: 3Q24 results – EBITDA in line with our and the consensus estimates NEUTRAL • Wizz...

Jakub Caithaml
  • Jakub Caithaml

WOOD Flash – Wizz Air: 2Q FY25 – 'tis the season?

There goes the summer. For Wizz, 2Q FY25 was yet another weak quarter, as the market has gradually come to expect since the beginning of August. The stock performance and the series of consensus downgrades over the past 3M suggest that the latest set of poor results have been factored in, in our view. Is Wizz now about to turn a corner, and are the next few quarters looking better? Possibly. The RASK should pick up pace and the ex-fuel CASK should moderate in 2H FY25E. In FY26E, Wizz should re-s...

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