M&A buzz tapering off; focus back to fundamentals – Since early 2022, Terna Energy’s investment case has been dominated by potential takeover interest, a theme which has at times overshadowed fundamentals. In recent months, headwinds for the RES sector internationally along with unfavorable weather conditions domestically and a waning M&A narrative have weighed on sentiment driving a c27% drop in the share price since the summer highs. Looking ahead, we expect the stock to move more in tandem wi...
M&A buzz tapering off; focus back to fundamentals – Since early 2022, Terna Energy’s investment case has been dominated by potential takeover interest, a theme which has at times overshadowed fundamentals. In recent months, headwinds for the RES sector internationally along with unfavorable weather conditions domestically and a waning M&A narrative have weighed on sentiment driving a c27% drop in the share price since the summer highs. Looking ahead, we expect the stock to move more in tandem wi...
EME Equity Market – April 2023 Market performance – in the black across all geographies, except for Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 3.4% mom in EUR terms and 4.9% mom in USD in April. The Polish WIG20 Index saw the biggest gains (+11.5% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+7.8% mom in EUR terms) and the Greek ASE Index (+2.9% mom in EUR terms). More muted performances were witnessed in the Czech PX Index and Romanian BET Index, both adding 1.7% mom in EUR terms for th...
HEADLINES: • Polish banks: staying positive (PKO BP, Bank Pekao, Santander BP, mBank, ING BSK, Bank Millennium, Alior Bank, Bank Handlowy) • Terna Energy: FY22 results review - steady cash flow streams drive yearly performance, in line • Cyfrowy Polsat: 4Q22 conference call takeaways • Dino: 1Q23E results preview - 29% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 4 May) NEUTRAL • Bank Handlowy: 1Q23E preview (due on 11 May) • ING BSK: 1Q23E preview (due on 11 May) • Eurocash: 1Q23E results preview - f...
2022: The comeback – Greek equities staged an impressive comeback in 2022, outpacing most international markets with a 7% total return vs a 2-digit drop suffered by other European indices (and the S&P in EUR terms). Underpinning the ASE was certainly the better macroeconomic backdrop, with the Greek economy expanding by >5% in 2022 compared with c3% for the EU. Light positioning, healthy corporate profitability and more attractive yield gaps than in other regions were additional supporting facto...
2022: The comeback – Greek equities staged an impressive comeback in 2022, outpacing most international markets with a 7% total return vs a 2-digit drop suffered by other European indices (and the S&P in EUR terms). Underpinning the ASE was certainly the better macroeconomic backdrop, with the Greek economy expanding by >5% in 2022 compared with c3% for the EU. Light positioning, healthy corporate profitability and more attractive yield gaps than in other regions were additional supporting facto...
Greece posted a solid 2022, with another year of strong GDP recovery (+5%), stable politics and a positive performance for the benchmark ASE Index (+4%), despite the negative global backdrop. Looking into 2023E, the key tailwinds are a stronger local macro outlook, a potential upgrade to investment grade status, the possible return of dividends from the banking sector, and continued earnings upgrades from corporates. The key headwinds are the volatility that could be created during a prolonged e...
HEADLINES: • Telecom Egypt: the jewel of the Nile (BUY - initiation of coverage) • KGHM: medium-term headwinds, followed by long-term strength (Hold - reinitiation of coverage) • Terna Energy: 9M22 review - strong performance on higher trading and load factors • CCC: final 3Q22 results a notch above the prelims; 29% yoy sales growth in November POSITIVE • Shoper: GMV growth over Black Friday-Cyber Monday decelerated to 10% yoy, 22ppt below 3Q22 NEGATIVE • Polish media: WP TV's audience share ...
EME Equity Market – November 2022 Market performance – Turkey does it again, breezing past everyone else, once more, in November. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 11.6% mom in EUR terms and 16.7% mom in USD. The ISE30 index, again, boasted the best performance among our coverage, adding 18.6% mom in EUR terms and 23.9% mom in local currency (lcl) terms. Positive performances were also recorded in the WIG (+14.0% EU /13.0% lcl mom), the BUX (+12.6% EUR/12.0% lcl mom), the BET (+8.4% EUR/8.6% lcl...
HEADLINES: • Elbit Systems: well-positioned global defence play (BUY - initiation of coverage) • EME Macro/Strategy: attention! Cycle signals and mega trends • Mytilineos: stronger than ever (BUY - transfer of coverage) • Allterco: strong results paving the way for expansion in 2023E (stays HOLD) • LiveChat Software: 2Q22-23 (calendar 3Q22) results - EBITDA up 19% yoy, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • 4iG: 3Q22 results review - quarterly results distorted by business transformation NEUT...
HEADLINES: • ADNOC Distribution: pumped for growth (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Bank of Cyprus: strong ROTE uplift on the cards already (stays BUY) • OPAP: 3Q22 review - solid set of results, driven by strong online presence • Public Power Corporation: 3Q keeps company on track to meet FY22E guidance NEUTRAL • Fourlis: 3Q22 review - decent quarter and gross margin recovery • Huuuge Games: adjusted 3Q22 EBITDA in line with the preliminary figure, supportive FY guidance NEUTRAL • Warsaw St...
EME Equity Market – September 2022 Market performance – in a rough month for the markets, Turkey emerges as the top-performing region, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 8.3% mom in EUR terms and 10.7% mom in USD in September; while the ISE index outperformed all the other indices once again, but with a muted performance this time, adding just 1.0% mom in EUR terms and 0.1% in local currency terms. All the other indices recorded negative performances, with the Czech PX Index losing 4....
HEADLINES: • EME macro/strategy: shock therapy to curb inflation, but test institutions and keep FX pressure high • Fintel Energija: growth without windfall taxes or price caps (stays BUY) • AD Plastik: fairly valued until the risks fade away (stays HOLD) • Polish banks: resolution procedures begin for Getin Noble Bank • PKO BP and PZU: are buying shares in PKN Orlen from the State Treasury NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: to pay PLN 53m into the mortgagors' support fund in 2022E NEUTRAL • PCF Group: ...
HEADLINES: • CD Projekt: unjustified premium to its peers (downgraded to SELL) • Allegro: 2Q22E results in line with the prelims; FY22E guidance upper range trimmed (again) POSITIVE • PKN Orlen: EGM approves the merger with PGNiG • CD Projekt: 20m Cyberpunk copies sold to date NEUTRAL • Petrol Group: Geoplin awaits capital raise or nationalisation • Fondul Proprietatea: Hidroelectrica postpones the decision regarding the acquisition of CEZ Vanzare • Hungary macro: twisting policies helps, b...
EME Equity Market – July 2022 Market performance – markets mostly up during the month, but Russia’s MOEX down 9.4% in EUR terms. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 2.3% mom in EUR, but lost 0.5% mom in USD in July. The Greek ASE Index was the best performing benchmark, advancing 5.0% mom in EUR. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 4.4% mom and 6.5% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Romania’s BET Index gained 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.3% mom in local currency, while Turkey’s ISE20 added...
HEADLINES: • MONETA Money Bank: solid 2Q22 results, 2022E guidance upgrade likely after 3Q22E • Santander Bank Polska: posts stellar adjusted profits in 2Q22, as NII doubles yoy POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: strong 2Q22 results, above our expectations, but in line with the consensus POSITIVE • OMV: 2Q22 results review - solid beat vs. consensus expectations POSITIVE • Orange Polska: 2Q22 results - EBITDAaL up 6% yoy, 2% above our estimate and the consensus POSITIVE • Akbank: 2Q22 highlights - guidanc...
Power market in flux; prefer Mytilineos and refineries – Greek industrial/energy-exposed companies have had an eventful 2022 driven by sub-sector dynamics, general macro prospects and idiosyncratic factors. In power generation/supply, the sector remains in flux given the recent regulatory intervention, and, although generation and supply dynamics appear to broadly offset each other, there are several moving parts, not only regarding gas/carbon prices but also regulatory aspects that will determi...
EME Equity Market – May 2022 Market performance – markets down mostly, as MSCI EM Europe Index declines 3.6%. The MSCI EM Europe Index fell 3.6% mom and 2.0% mom in EUR and USD terms, respectively, in May. The best-performing index was the Russian MOEX, which added 6.3% mom in EUR terms, but declined 3.7% mom in local currency. However, we note that, with the CBR ban on short selling and restrictions on international investors, as well various sanctions, this performance is not fully comparable ...
HEADLINES: • Wirtualna Polska: strong 1Q22, with adjusted EBITDA up 19% yoy, 7% above our estimate POSITIVE • Shoper: 1Q22 results in line with preliminary guidance NEUTRAL • Patria Bank: 1Q22 results review - strong NII offset by weaker other income and higher costs • DIGI Communications: 1Q22 results - pro forma adjusted EBITDA up 9% yoy, in line with our estimate NEUTRAL • DataWalk: preliminary 1Q22 results - sales up 21% yoy, to PLN 4.18m NEGATIVE • Terna Energy: Investor Day highlights • ...
HEADLINES: • Terna Energy: strategically positioned (stays BUY) • Sava Re: slight discount, despite competitive ROE profile (stays HOLD) • mBank: big beat on bottom line, but operating profit simply solid and not as much of a surprise POSITIVE • Dogus Otomotiv: better-than-expected 1Q22 results POSITIVE • Logo Yazilim: 1Q22 results - small beat, bullish FY22E guidance reiterated POSITIVE • Graphisoft Park: stable 1Q22 results, valuation remains attractive NEUTRAL • InPost: 1Q22 beat on stronge...
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