The trade war de-escalation has offered some breathing space for investors and driven positive sentiment, but we expect headline volatility to continue. Much of the focus will also be on geopolitical developments. In this report we have reviewed a large number of Turkish non-financial corporates, added the idea to buy SGLSJ'29 and closed the idea to buy WE SODA.
Turkcell delivered solid operational profitability in 1Q25, with 13% revenue growth and a 230bp y/y improvement in EBITDA margin, driven by effective cost management and successful repricing initiatives. We have revised our 2025 estimates upward across major financial indicators, while expecting growth to normalize and capex intensity to increase in 2H25. Accordingly, we raise our target price to TL152 per share and reiterate our BUY rating. Turkcell is trading at 2.5x 2025E EV/EBITDA, represent...
Turk Telekom posted a strong set of results in 1Q25, marked by 18% revenue growth and a 260bps y/y expansion in EBITDA margin, underpinned by buoyant ARPU dynamics in mobile and fixed segments, and effective execution of costs. Net income surged 45% y/y, supported by a meaningful reduction in financial expenses and improved financial leverage. Reflecting the stronger-than-anticipated momentum, we have revised our 2025 forecasts upward across key financial metrics, while anticipating a normalizat...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: We expect an improving operating performance among selected companies in September, and add AIA, COLI, Desay SV, Galaxy Entertainment, Meituan, Ping An and TUL to our BUY list and add Li Auto as a SELL. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Trailing The JCI’s Strong Performance In Aug 24: Our picks are ICBP, TOWR, BBNI, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Adapting To A Bipolar Market: Our Al...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls: We expect stimulus to be announced in August and add COSCO Shipping Ports, Haier Smart Home, and KE Holdings to our BUY list and add SELL call on WuXi Bio, and XPeng. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance in Jul 24: Our picks are BBNI, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Raising The M&A And Monetisation Bets: Our Alpha Picks marginally beat the KLCI. Jul 24 picks: Ekovest, Gamu...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Call: Adding ASMPT, Innovent, Poly Property Services, TAL Education and Trip.com to our BUY list; hedging with SELL call on BYD. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Jun 24 And 2Q24: Our picks are BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Opting For More Adventurous Choices: Our Alpha Picks beat the KLCI again. Jul 24 picks: BURSA, Ekovest, Gamuda, Lagenda, Mah Sing, MYEG, Pekat...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: June Conviction Call: Adding KE Holdings and Wharf REIC to our BUY list; hedging with SELL call on BYD. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: First Month Of Underperformance In 2024: Our picks are EXCL, BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Choices For A “Summer Lull”: Our Alpha Picks trounce the KLCI again. May 24 picks: BAUTO, BURSA, Gamuda, GENM, Lagenda, Mah Sing, MYEG, PMETAL, RGB, and VSI. SINGAPORE Strategy Alpha Picks...
We favor Turkcell due to its strong revenue growth, primarily driven by price adjustments, mitigated impact of cost pressures and decline in financial leverage. We incorporate IAS29 effect to financials, revise up target price to TL110 per share (previously TL96) and maintain BUY rating. At 2024E EV/EBITDA ratio of 2.8x, Turkcell is trading at a 38% discount to its peers. 4Q23 Review, without the effect of inflationary accounting: Turkcell witnessed an 83% y/y revenue growth, thanks to ARPU gro...
Supply has re-emerged as a key theme to start the year, while sentiment has been mixed amid renewed volatility in core rates. In this environment, we would prefer to be positioned in higher-quality names that have either issued already or shown spread weakness in anticipation of supply.
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
Turkcell has demonstrated strong growth in both revenue and earnings, primarily driven by price adjustments and the mitigated impact of cost pressures. We are adjusting estimates upwards, owing to the strong 1H23 performance and the management’s guidance upgrade. Consequently, we are revising our target price to TL78.6 from the previous TL55, while maintaining our BUY rating. Turkcell trades at 7x 2024E P/E, with a 36% discount to international peers. Strong 2Q results: Turkcell announced TL3,1...
HEADLINES: • Bank of Georgia: 2Q23 - strong quarter with more capital returns POSITIVE • Photon Energy: cuts FY23E EBITDA guidance by 66%, to EUR 10m NEGATIVE • Dino: 2Q23 EBITDA misses both our and the market's expectations by 3-5% NEUTRAL • Turkcell: 2Q23 results - FY23E guidance upgraded, dividends still uncertain NEUTRAL • BIM: 2Q23 results - in line operationally, but bottom line beat expectations NEUTRAL • Ulker: 2Q23 results - bottom line as expected NEUTRAL • Addiko Bank: solid 2Q23, wit...
HEADLINES: • Elm: digital enabler (HOLD - initiation of coverage) • Turk Telekom: 2Q23 results POSITIVE • Pegasus Airlines: 2Q23 - high RASK and costs under control drive stellar profitability POSITIVE • Telecom Egypt: 2Q23 results review - EBITDA up 30% yoy, 7% above the consensus NEUTRAL • Telecom Egypt: key takeaways from the 2Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • DIGI Communications: key takeaways from the 2Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • CEZ: IndMin says "no reason for quick action" on CEZ split NEUTRAL...
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
HEADLINES: • Alpha Bank: 1Q23 - a strong start to 2023 POSITIVE • Turk Telekom: 1Q23 results slightly below the consensus on EBITDA/NI • BIM: 1Q23 results - in line operationally, but bottom line misses expectations NEUTRAL • Petkim: 1Q results - net income beats forecasts • CCC: soft start to the year, with 1Q23 adjusted EBITDA down 36% yoy NEGATIVE • Auto Partner: April sales up by 36% yoy, 3ppts above our model assumption NEUTRAL • Electrica: 1Q23 operational indicators show 9% decline in ...
EME Equity Market – February 2023 Market performance – Greece and Czechia continue with good momentum; Turkey resumes rally. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 4.9% mom in EUR terms and 2.4% mom in USD in February. The Greek ASE and the Czech PX were, again, the best performers, adding 10.4% mom and 7.6% mom in EUR terms, respectively; while the rally resumed in Turkey, with the ISE 30 index gaining 7.3% mom in EUR terms. There was a somewhat muted performance in Hungary and Romania, with the BUX a...
HEADLINES: • Bank of Cyprus: patience wins the race (stays BUY) • Turk Telekom: 4Q22 results in line, but no dividends from the FY22 earnings NEGATIVE • Magyar Telekom: 4Q22 results - EBITDA down 3% yoy, 2% above the consensus; strong 2023-24E outlook POSITIVE • TBC Bank: 4Q22 highlights, and our take on the redemption liability • Brisa: small 4Q22 earnings beat, declares DPS of TRY 3.6 (6.0% yield) POSITIVE • Piraeus Bank: 4Q22E results (due out tomorrow morning) • Alro: 4Q22E results previ...
Including Turkcell to our model portfolio, while removing Anadolu Efes: We are including Turkcell to our model portfolio, while excluding Anadolu Efes. Turkcell was one of the worst performers in the BIST-30 index in 2022. The lagged effect of price adjustments on ARPU growth, its sensitivity to TL volatility due to FX-based capex and financial debt and the lack of major catalysts were the main drivers of the company’s underperformance. However, the company has increased the frequency of price a...
The Turkish telecom sector has trailed our non-bank coverage in terms of earnings growth momentum during 2022. On a risk-return basis, we think the worst is behind the sector and our current estimates factor in the effect of high inflationary trends. Additionally, the price increases executed in 2H22 should improve the growth outlook in 2023. Therefore, we upgrade our rating for Turkcell to a BUY, with a TL55 per share TP (TL23.5 previously). We favour Turkcell due to its prudent cost management...
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