GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls: Adding AIA, Midea, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Shenzhen Inovance and Trip.com to our BUY list, with SELL calls on BYD, EVE Energy, and Li Auto. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Mar 24 and 1Q24: Our picks are ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Expanding The Variety Of Events Bets: Our Alpha Picks trounced the KLCI in Mar 24. Apr 24 picks: GENM, Inari, Mah Sing, MrDIY, MY...
ASEAN has long been considered one of the global auto markets with the best growth prospects, but expectations have not been met. With China in trouble and ASEAN auto sales lacklustre, Japanese automakers need to review their positioning in Asia. Analyst Julie Boote provides a short-term outlook for the ASEAN auto market, and discusses Japanese assemblers’ options within this context.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: March Conviction Call: Adding CMB, COLI, CR Beer, Kuaishou and TUL to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Significant Outperformance In Feb 24: Our picks are BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Focusing On Earnings Momentum: Our Alpha Picks underperformed the KLCI in Feb 24 (-0.9% vs 2.5%). Mar 24 picks significantly feature companies with good earnings momentum. SINGAPORE...
As this week is the Chinese New Year holiday, the weekly EV insurance registration numbers will only be posted next week. The most eye-catching news is the snow in Hubei last week, which crippled hundreds of EVs on highways. This shows the limitation of BEVs in regard to long-haul drive and recharging. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT on China’s auto sector. Top SELLs: BYD, XPeng and Li Auto. Top BUY: CATL. Upgrade GAC from SELL to HOLD on valuation.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Inflation: Jan 24 CPI inflation lower on base effect. Sector Automobile: Weekly: EV market share falls to 38-week low. Top SELLs: BYD, XPeng and Li Auto. TRADERS’ CORNER Chinasoft International Limited (354 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$4.60-4.73 BYD Electronic (International) Company Limited (285 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$28.00-28.50
PEV market share dipped 1.2ppt wow to a 38-week low of 28.4%. BYD’s and Li Auto’s market shares also dropped 0.3ppt/0.9ppt wow to 29.5%/4.5% respectively during the week. Chinese authorities reiterated plans to boost automobile sales and exports, but we see limited impacts. Most auto stocks rallied along with the market this week due to the state’s bailout. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT on the sector on a grim outlook. Top SELLs: BYD, XPeng and Li Auto. We are adding CATL to our top BUY list as a hedge.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls: We remain hedged, adding COSCO Shipping Holdings and Foxconn Industrial Internet to our BUY list, but include additional SELL calls on Li Auto and Xpeng. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance in Jan 24: Our picks are EXCL, MAPI, BMRI, JSMR, BBNI, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Eyes Also On Results Season Winners: Our Alpha Picks performance again trounced the KLCI in Jan 24 (+9.6% vs +4.0%). Feb 24 pic...
EV sales in China continued to rebound in the fourth week of Jan 24, but remained low due to seasonal factors. We keep our estimate on China’s 2024 PEV sales growth at 11%, below consensus forecast of +20% yoy, based on destocking and diminishing effect of subsidies. BYD and Ganfeng posted disappointing 4Q23 net profit guidance on price cuts, triggering further downgrades. CATL’s guided 2023 profit beats market estimates, triggering a rebound. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, XPeng and Li A...
While Japan’s automakers have upped their game in the EV space, they remain laggards on the global stage. With the EV markets now in trouble, analyst Julie Boote assesses whether or not the Japanese assemblers have been vindicated in their more cautious approach to electrification.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls: We add the potential beneficiaries of the upcoming CNY festival − Galaxy Entertainment and Trip.com − to our BUY list, but include SELL calls on BYD and Geely due to the subsidy reduction. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance in 4Q23 and 2023: Our picks are MAPI, BMRI, JSMR, TLKM, BBNI, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Domestic Event Winners: Our Alpha Picks outperformed the KLCI in Dec 23. Jan 24 pick...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Small-Mid Cap Biweekly: Eyeing PCB recovery. Update BYD Company (1211 HK/SELL/HK$222.20/Target: HK$140.00): Downgrade from BUY to SELL on peaking retail sales and piling inventories. Slash target price from HK$630.00 to HK$140.00. Innovent Biologics (1801 HK/BUY/HK$45.30/Target: HK$60.00): Smooth progress in drug sales and R&D, targeting revenue of Rmb20b in 2027. INDONESIA Sector Coal: Flattish demand outlook with stabilising prices, dividend yield remains attractive. Do...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls: We add a mix of defensives and turnaround stocks − COSCO Shipping, CR Mixc, Great Wall Motor, Innovent, Link REIT and NetEase − to our BUY list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance Despite Negative Returns: Our picks: TLKM, BBNI, SMGR, NCKL, CTRA, MYOR, AKRA and CMRY. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Focusing On Domestic Winners: Our Alpha Picks underperformed the FBMKLCI in Oct 23. Nov 23 picks: BUY BURSA, EKOVEST, GENM, ...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Small-Mid Cap Biweekly: Pet food exports on track for recovery; beneficiary: Yantai China Pet Food. Results BYD Company (1211 HK/BUY/HK$246.20/Target: HK$630.00): 3Q23: Earnings up 82% yoy and 53% qoq, in line. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$630.00. China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$4.48/Target: HK$6.00): 3Q23: Results in line; earnings up 2.6% on lower credit costs. China Merchants Bank Co. (3968 HK/BUY/HK$30.30/Target: HK$45.00): 3Q23: Results miss; longer wait need...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: October Conviction Calls: We expect further downside pressure, so we add SELLs on Henlius and Xpeng to the list, on top of BUYs on Anta, Lenovo, PICC P&C and SHKP. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Potential Bull Market in 4Q23: Our picks: BBNI, SMGR, NCKL, MAPI, CTRA, MYOR, AKRA and CMRY. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: A Handful Of Events To Capitalise On: Our Alpha Picks modestly outperformed the FBMKLCI in Sep 23. Oct 23 picks: BUY BURSA, HAPL, HUME, MAHB a...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile: Weekly: China’s PEV sales growth accelerated to 40% during 18-24 Sep 23. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, CATL and Li Auto. Baijiu: Weak retail growth expectations; be selective. Top pick: Moutai. TRADERS’ CORNER Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Company Limited (874 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$22.30-22.60 Avichina Industry & Technology Company Ltd. (2357 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$3.60-3.65
China’s PEV retail sales growth accelerated to 40% yoy in the third week of September, driven by seasonality and stimulus measures. CPCA estimates Sep 23 PEV sales at 750,000 units (+22.7% yoy/+7.4% mom), in line with expectations. The top EV companies in China jointly saw 7% mom and 17% wow growth in insurance registrations. BYD’s insurance registrations grew 19.8% mom/20.7% wow to 64,700 units during 18-24 Sep 23, hitting a record high. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL and Li Auto.
China’s PEV wholesale shipment grew 34% yoy/17% mom during 11-17 Sep 23, in line with estimates. We keep our estimate of China’s 2023 PEV sales at 8.5m units (+30% yoy). Almost all EV companies in China saw positive wow growth in retail sales volume, except Tesla whose sales were impacted by the generation transition of Model 3. Despite strong EV sales, lithium carbonate prices fell 7% wow to a ytd low of Rmb175,000/tonne, below breakeven point. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL and Li ...
A director at Byd Co Ltd bought 13,500 shares at 246.540CNY and the significance rating of the trade was 64/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: We focus on stocks with pricing power or sustainable margins against a weakening macro backdrop. Add Giordano, KE Holdings and Trip.com. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In Aug 23: Our picks: MYOR, BSDE, CTRA, HMSP, BBNI, SMGR and MAPI. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Warming Up For Better Months Ahead: Our Alpha Picks outperformed the FBMKLCI in Aug 23. Sep 23 picks: BUY BURSA, HAPL, HUME, MAHB, Mr DIY, My EG Servi...
BYD posted in-line 2Q23 net profit of Rmb6,824m (+142% yoy/+72% qoq), vs its guidance of Rmb6,370m-7,570m, driven by sales growth and margin recovery. This brings 1H23 net profit to Rmb10.95b (+205% yoy), vs our 2023 estimate of Rmb23.81b (+43% yoy). Looking ahead, we expect earnings to continue growing qoq in 2H23, driven by new model launches. We keep 2023-25 net profit forecasts at Rmb23.81b/ Rmb37.57b/Rmb53.36b. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$590.00.
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