Strategy | KTA From 1H26 Strategy Conference In Kuala Lumpur We conducted a marketing trip to Kuala Lumpur and met with more than 20 investors to present our 1H26 strategy. Among our four key themes, the strongest interest centred on the copper-related narrative, with many investors also asking if this is the right time to re-enter the banking and consumer sectors. Highlights • Interest largely centred on the copper-related theme. • Attractive risk-reward in selected large caps, with dividend y...
Strategy | KTA From 1H26 Strategy Conference In Kuala Lumpur We conducted a marketing trip to Kuala Lumpur and met with more than 20 investors to present our 1H26 strategy. Among our four key themes, the strongest interest centred on the copper-related narrative, with many investors also asking if this is the right time to re-enter the banking and consumer sectors. Technical Analysis Sumber Alfaria Trijaya | AMRT IJ Trading Buy Range: We have a technical Buy at Rp1,920, and take profit at Rp2,0...
Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Bias Positive, Adding BBCA, DEWA, TLKM The JCI rebounded strongly in November, supported by improved liquidity, risk-on sentiment, and US$730m foreign inflows. Our portfolio lagged (+0.8% vs JCI’s +4.0%) due to weakness in AADI, JPFA, MDKA, and ADRO. While December historically delivers positive returns, its reliability now hinges more on liquidity and global risk appetite. We turn selective, removing AADI and ADRO due to coal-duty uncertainty, and adding BBCA, T...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Market consolidation slowed in November as expectations of a 25bp Fed cut improved sentiment. The HSI and MSCI China fell 0.2% and 2.4% mom amid weak data and limited catalysts. While the upcoming Economic Work Conference may offer a catalyst to end this phase, we remain cautious, preferring defensives and oversold names. We add BeOne Medicines, HKEX, NetEase and Plover Bay to BUY, take profit on AIA, and cut losses on Jacobson,...
Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Bias Positive, Adding BBCA, DEWA, TLKM The JCI rebounded strongly in November, supported by improved liquidity, risk-on sentiment, and US$730m foreign inflows. Our portfolio lagged (+0.8% vs JCI’s +4.0%) due to weakness in AADI, JPFA, MDKA, and ADRO. While December historically delivers positive returns, its reliability now hinges more on liquidity and global risk appetite. We turn selective, removing AADI and ADRO due to coal-duty uncertainty, and adding BBCA, T...
Strategy | A Broader Market Narrative The JCI enters 2026 with improving liquidity, firmer fiscal execution and gradually improving earnings, supporting our 9,200 index target on a 9% EPS growth. Large-cap underperformance in 2025 was driven by positioning, but rotation should broaden as macro conditions stabilise. Our 2026 strategy balances structural growers (ASSA, CMRY, HEAL, JPFA), dollar-earning commodity names (ARCI, BRMS, DEWA, MDKA) and quality defensives such as BBCA and TLKM. Key risks...
Greater China Sector Update | Consumer We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed segments and names include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include: Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands ...
Economics | Indonesia's Trade Surplus Contracts On Surging Imports Indonesia's trade surplus narrowed to $2.39b in Oct 25 as a surge in imports, driven by strong domestic demand and government spending, outpaced a modest export decline. While underlying cumulative trends remain positive, the surplus is expected to shrink further through 2025 due to a slowing global economy and robust import growth. Looking ahead, the 2026 outlook faces headwinds from protectionist policies targeting key exports ...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Telekomunikasi Indonesia (P.T.) and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 27 November 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings ...
Highlights • Stock rotations to broaden in 2026 as macroeconomic environment and liquidity improve, easing the flow-driven divergence seen in 2024-25. • Balanced portfolio of defensives, flow proxies, compelling growth and US dollar earners supports our 2026 year-end JCI target of 9,200. Analysis • Non-LQ45 outperformance defines 2025. The LQ45 Index has underperformed the JCI by 16% ytd, extending the lag that began in 2024 (-12% vs JCI) amid muted big bank earnings. The gap has been driven mo...
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in November 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on ...
Sector Update | Telecommunications Indonesia’s fixed-broadband market is entering a transition phase as the 1.4GHz spectrum enables low-cost FWA rollout from 2026 onwards. WIFI is positioned to scale quickly through backbone ownership and potential LINK integration, while ecosystem synergies with INET, PADA, KETR, IRSX and DOOH support rapid expansion. Tower operators may gain tenancy upside, while fixed-broadband ARPU faces pressure. Ultimately, real impact remains dependent on rollout executio...
Sector Update | Telecommunications Indonesia’s fixed-broadband market is entering a transition phase as the 1.4GHz spectrum enables low-cost FWA rollout from 2026 onwards. WIFI is positioned to scale quickly through backbone ownership and potential LINK integration, while ecosystem synergies with INET, PADA, KETR, IRSX and DOOH support rapid expansion. Tower operators may gain tenancy upside, while fixed-broadband ARPU faces pressure. Ultimately, real impact remains dependent on rollout executio...
Greater China Economics | PMI November PMI undershot expectations; manufacturing PMI was at 49.2 (+0.2pt mom) and non-manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.5 (-0.6pt mom), the first contraction in nearly three years. With the services industry index weakened to 49.5 (-0.7pt mom). PMI data confirms growth momentum is easing, so expect more supportive policies to be rolled out soon, but for economic confidence to return, we need a sustainable bottom in the real estate sector. Sector Update | Heal...
Company Update | Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ/BUY/Rp3,500/Target: Rp4,000) We maintain our BUY call with a new target price of Rp4,000 from Rp3,800 previously, based on 5.6x EV/EBITDA multiple (+0.25SD) five-year historical average of 5.4x. TLKM plans to transfer Rp79t of fibre assets to TIF (Telkom Infraco) to unlock value by attracting a strategic partner for a 20–30% stake. The move supports its broader restructuring and asset optimisation, including potential data centre stake sale, despite nea...
Greater China Company Results | COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK/HOLD/HK$13.67/Target: HK$14.54) CSH’s 3Q25 net profit fell 55% yoy to Rmb9.5b but beat expectations on resilient freight rates and higher volumes. The recent rebound in freight indices and suspension of US-China port fees should support 4Q25 earnings. While oversupply risks remain in 2026, accelerated scrapping could ease pressure. Its strong net cash position (63% of market cap) should allow CSH to navigate the downcycle with ...
Economics | Rising Imports Narrow Indonesia's Long-Standing Trade Surplus In Sep 25, Indonesia's trade surplus narrowed to US$4.34b as robust import growth, fuelled by government spending and domestic demand, outpaced a slight export decline. While yearly growth remains positive, the outlook is clouded by global headwinds, including softening economic activity and weak coal prices. With imports expected to rise on a nascent domestic rebound and exports facing pressure, the trade surplus is proje...
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in October 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on d...
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