In our inaugural Asia Monthly for 2025, we share our regional credit outlook for the year, with a focus on China, Macau, India and Indonesia. We also provide a review of 2024, in which we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements for the year. In addition, we provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases in December 2024, summarise the Top/Bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well a...
EXCL’s holiday data traffic increased 19% vs normal days, higher than ISAT’s (more than 10% on 1 Jan 25). We maintain OVERWEIGHT on the telecommunications sector in view of factors such as: a) rising data traffic, b) relatively resilient demand for telco services, and c) potential industry consolidation which could support data monetisation in the long term. Our top picks are EXCL (BUY/Target: Rp3,200) and ISAT (BUY/Target: Rp3,100).
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in November 2024. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the Top/Bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on ...
The Asia Trade Book for November 2024 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia HY and crossover credits. Please reach out to our analysts to discuss any of these ideas, or other trade recommendations from our Asia coverage.
TLKM’s 9M24 EBITDA reached Rp57t, in line with our and consensus’ full-year estimates. The yoy decline in 3Q24 EBITDA was due to a slight fall in 3Q24 revenue (weak consumer purchasing power), coupled with a lower EBITDA margin (rising G&A expenses). Its fixed broadband subscriber base rose 11% yoy and 3% qoq in 3Q24. The slight 2% qoq decline in 3Q23 FBB ARPU was due to: a) accelerated rollout, and b) new users possibly choosing internet-only package. Maintain BUY. Target price: Rp4,200.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls Add Hansoh Pharma, Sands China, CSCEC and BYDE to our BUY list. Add Sinopharm to our SELL list. Sector Aviation – China Airlines: 3Q24 earnings a slight miss; expect losses in seasonally weak 4Q24. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Macau Gaming Oct 24 GGR up 7% yoy and...
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in October 2024. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the Top/Bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on d...
Protelindo saw revenue and EBITDA trends accelerate this quarter helped by the IBST consolidation. As a result, revenue YTD are now trending above the 4-6% guidance. There was some slowdown in FTTT this quarter but growth remained robust.
GREATER CHINA Sector Metals And Mining Gold: Rally takes a breather; downside cushioned by escalating geopolitical tensions. INDONESIA Update Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ/HOLD/Rp850/Target: Rp930) 2Q24: Revenue from non-tower business jumps 30% yoy. Downgrade to HOLD. MALAYSIA Strategy Budget 2025 Preview: Building Sustainable Growth While Budget 2025 is seen as market-neutral, it is suppor...
TOWR recorded 1H24 EBITDA of Rp5.1t, in line with our and consensus estimates. However, its 1H24 NPAT of Rp1.6t was slightly below our and consensus expectations. Last July, iForte completed the acquisition of 90.1% of IBST with acquisition value of Rp3.4t. We are monitoring for more clarity regarding TOWR’s rights issue plan (EGM scheduled on 25 Oct 24) and potential merger between FREN and EXCL. Downgrade to HOLD with a target price of Rp930, due to valuation.
We maintain OVERWEIGHT on the telecommunications sector in view of several factors: a) telcos’ 2024/25 mobile data revenue could grow 8%/7% yoy, b) digital channels (penetration ranging from 29% to 55%) could help improve ARPU, c) telcos’ EBITDA growth could reach 8% yoy in 2024 and 4% yoy in 2025, and d) attractive valuation with many telcos trading at -1SD EV/EBITDA. Our top pick is EXCL (BUY/Target: Rp2,900).
Protelindo maintained growth at the upper bound of its 4-6% guidance again as improved FTTT performance helped offset the lower Tower revenue. Margins were lower YoY, but justifiably so as non-Tower contribution rose to 34% versus 26% last year.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: We expect an improving operating performance among selected companies in September, and add AIA, COLI, Desay SV, Galaxy Entertainment, Meituan, Ping An and TUL to our BUY list and add Li Auto as a SELL. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Trailing The JCI’s Strong Performance In Aug 24: Our picks are ICBP, TOWR, BBNI, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Adapting To A Bipolar Market: Our Al...
The JCI rallied strongly in Aug 24, rising 10.7%. 5.0% of the return was due to the rupiah appreciation. The strong rally caused our portfolio to underperform despite our portfolio delivering a 7.6% increase. Over the past 10 years, the return of the JCI in September averaged -1.62%. Considering the 10.7% return of the JCI in Aug 24, it might be wise to be slightly defensive in Sep 24. Thus, add ICBP and TOWR. Our picks are ICBP, TOWR, BBNI, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR.
GREATER CHINA Results BYD Electronic (285 HK/BUY/HK$27.65/Target: HK$42.50) 1H24: Results missed on margins. Expect peak season to bolster profitability in 2H24. China Feihe (6186 HK/BUY/HK$4.04/Target: HK$5.22) 1H24: Steady profit growth; accelerated revenue expansion in 2H24. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/HOLD/HK$6.16/Target: HK$6.10) 1H24: Below expectations; power generation dragged by low wind speed. ...
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