Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls Chinese equities consolidated further in March amid outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East, with the HSI and MSCI China Index declining 6.9% mom and 7.5% mom respectively. We expect markets to stay volatile in April, though oversold rebounds are possible. We continue to focus on names with stronger fundamentals and remain buyers of tech names, adding Li Ning and Zijin Mining to our BUY list while taking profits on Ganfeng Lithium a...
Company Update | Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ/BUY/Rp496/Target: Rp620) We upgrade our call to BUY from HOLD with a target price of Rp620, revised from Rp600, based on 7.5x 2026 EV/EBITDA (-1.5SD to its five-year average). TOWR’s disciplined expansion, stable 2025 earnings, and strong balance sheet support its defensive profile. Near-term colocation growth faces pressure from industry consolidation, while improving tenancy quality, rising data traffic, and potential 5G/FWA rollout should supp...
Economics | Indonesia’s Foreign Reserves Hit Two-Year Low On Rupiah Defence Foreign reserves fell to US$148.2b (lowest since Jul 24), pushing the import coverage ratio below its historical average. This weakens rupiah defence, raises vulnerability to speculative attacks, and erodes confidence in BI’s forex intervention capacity. The rupiah sank to an all-time low of Rp17,100, pressured by a strong US dollar, Middle East tensions, rapid M2 growth, and widening fiscal and current account deficits....
Greater China Sector Update | Banking China banks generally delivered resilient revenue and earnings growth in 4Q25, supported by stabilising NII and accelerated fee income growth. SOE banks outperformed JSBs, driven by stronger other non-NII growth from profit-taking on AC and FVOCI bonds. Asset quality indicators were broadly stable, although retail asset quality risks remain elevated. Given the improving topline growth and solid dividend yields, we upgrade the sector to OVERWEIGHT as a de...
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the impact of the Middle East conflict on our Asian Coverage Universe. In addition, we review the performance of major Asian credit indices and UST curve movements in March 2026. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of ...
Greater China Economics | Trade China’s exports grew 21.8% yoy in Jan-Feb 26, way above Bloomberg consensus of 7.2% yoy. Imports were equally strong, up 19.8% yoy compared with an expected 7.0% yoy. Exports to the US fell 11.0% yoy, but were made up by strong exports growth to Hong Kong, ASEAN and the EU. While the manufacturing PMI new export orders sub-index improved in 4Q25, the strong data is a pleasant surprise, reflecting China’s success in trade diversification. Company Results | Foxco...
Company Update | Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ/BUY/Rp2,960/Target: Rp4,200) We maintain BUY on TLKM with an unchanged target price of Rp4,200, reemphasising the improving industry ARPU discipline, ongoing asset monetisation, and potential upside from the TIF stake sale. TelkomMetra's divestment of AdMedika to Fullerton Health marks the first concrete step in TLKM's broader asset unlocking programme, with TIF, data centres, property, and GOTO still in the pipeline. A structurally rising DPR and poten...
Company Update | Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ/BUY/Rp2,960/Target: Rp4,200) We maintain BUY on TLKM with an unchanged target price of Rp4,200, reemphasising the improving industry ARPU discipline, ongoing asset monetisation, and potential upside from the TIF stake sale. TelkomMetra's divestment of AdMedika to Fullerton Health marks the first concrete step in TLKM's broader asset unlocking programme, with TIF, data centres, property, and GOTO still in the pipeline. A structurally rising DPR and poten...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: March Conviction Calls Chinese equities consolidated further in February, with the HSI and MSCI China Index declining 2.8% mom and 5.6% mom, respectively. March is expected to be volatile, as there are signs that the Middle East conflict could last for a while. We focus on names which have greater domestic exposure, adding Anta, China Duty Free, FII, Futu, Kuaishou and Tencent to our BUY list. Indonesia Strategy | Alpha Picks: Rotating To Commodities Amid M...
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in February 2026. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on...
Greater China Sector Update | Hong Kong Property Residential prices rebounded more strongly than expected in 4Q25 and ytd, supported by positive rental yield spread over mortgage rates and stabilising population trends in Hong Kong. However, the yield spread has narrowed and supply remains relatively high despite easing sequentially. We raise our 2026 price growth forecast to 7% and primary transaction estimate to 25,000 units. We downgrade SHKP to HOLD, keep Kerry Properties at BUY, and maintai...
Company Update | Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ/BUY/Rp3,550/Target: Rp4,200) We maintain BUY on TLKM with an unchanged target price of Rp4,200, supported by improving industry ARPU discipline, ongoing asset monetisation, and potential upside from the TIF stake sale. While near-term headline risks may arise from fibre depreciation reviews and legacy regulatory matters, both are largely non-cash and manageable. A structurally higher DPR and continued margin recovery should underpin earnings resilience ...
Company Update | Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ/BUY/Rp3,550/Target: Rp4,200) We maintain BUY on TLKM with an unchanged target price of Rp4,200, supported by improving industry ARPU discipline, ongoing asset monetisation, and potential upside from the TIF stake sale. While near-term headline risks may arise from fibre depreciation reviews and legacy regulatory matters, both are largely non-cash and manageable. A structurally higher DPR and continued margin recovery should underpin earnings resilience ...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite the risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, and Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Strategy | Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebala...
Strategy | Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebalancing Our portfolio outperformed the JCI by 10.2%. January volatility hit the JCI after MSCI flagged free float transparency and investability risks, reversing record highs into foreign-led sell-offs and a late-month correction. In response, regulators are shifting from short-term stabilisation toward structural repair, with greater emphasis on transparency and investability. The strategy pivots towards liquid and dividend-paying blu...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property CRIC data show that the top 100 developers’ contracted sales fell 24.7% yoy in Jan 26, while new-home sales in 28 major cities declined 36% yoy. Second-hand transactions in three Tier 1 cities rose 1% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT but deepening industry downturn leads to rising possibility of policy support, supporting selective exposure. CR Land remains our top pick, with P/B at 1SD below the five-year mean, and PE and yield near the five-year average....
Economics | Indonesia Headline Inflation Rises On Low-base Effect, Core Inflation Remains Stable Indonesia's headline inflation rose to 3.55% yoy in Jan 26, primarily driven by temporary base effects from last year's low electricity tariffs and high global gold prices. However, core inflation remained stable at 2.45%, and prices fell mom due to a strong food harvest. This indicates underlying demand pressures are still contained. Consequently, Bank Indonesia is expected to maintain its benchmark...
Strategy | Positive Sentiment On LQ45 Following MSCI’s freeze on index inclusions and deletions, the government plans to raise equity investment limits for pension funds and insurance companies from 8% to 20%, broadly in line with OECD practices. Investment allocation is expected to focus on LQ45 constituents. For context, the LQ45 index has underperformed the JCI by approximately 16.0% over the past year. Highlights • JCI declined by -7.2% over the past three trading days after the freeze on ...
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