Freja eID has built a strong platform and we are encouraged by early uptake metrics such as a 100k users expanding by 285% YOY and 252 relying parties showing 61% YOY growth. We also recognise that it still has a lot of work to do to demonstrate monetisation of the ecosystem, but Freja eID appears to have the right balance of user simplicity and capabilities. We forecast a 76% sales CAGR to 2023e and have lifted our fair value to SEK75–125 (50–100).
Bullish Outlook Intact; Growth vs. Value Stalemate Continues Market dynamics remain positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across the broad indexes and Sectors. As a result we remain bullish and we view any weakness as a buying opportunity. · S&P 500. The S&P 500 is currently testing short-term support in the 3630-3645 zone, which happens to coincide with a multi-week uptrend. If this area fails to hold, the next important support levels to watch would be 3588 foll...
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
Freja eID is showing early platform success, and its decision to disclose the number of users (68k, with an additional backlog of 95k) is a positive signal to us. That said, until it proves that the eID platform can accelerate top-line growth, the stock should continue to lag. Having cut our 2020–2022 sales forecasts by 6%, we have arrived at a fair value of SEK50–100 (60–110).
Verisec continues to demonstrate early success in building its Freja eID ecosystem, which is set to benefit from continued digitalisation tailwinds accelerated by Covid-19 and an increasingly eID-focused organisation. However, we await further signs that it can successfully monetise its ecosystem into paying customers, and have thus cut our 2020–2022e sales by 24%, and our fair value to SEK60–110 (70–110).
S&P 500 Coiled Spring Our view remains bullish as long as the S&P 500 is above the 2940-2980 support zone and we suggest buying any dips. Additionally, 3076 is a short-term support level to watch on the S&P 500; if 3076 holds it would be further confirmation that the bulls are still in charge. · What Would Alter Our Bullish Outlook? Key support levels we are watching include the 2940-2980 zone on the S&P 500, 9500 on the Nasdaq 100 (or $231.50 on the QQQ), and $133 on the Russell 2000...
Verisec’s Q1 report was disappointing in our view, but we like that the divestment of non-core businesses lessens the financial risk and increases the margin and growth profile. We expect the stock to re-rate on greater Freja eID visibility in 2020, as we expect accelerated cloud security adoption driven by Covid-19. We have cut our fair value to SEK70–110 (80–120).
… as Covid-19 is forcing organisations to work remotely, resulting in a spike in demand for secure digital processes. Still, we are concerned about delayed sales cycles for its legacy security products, hence we have cut our 2020–2022e sales forecasts by ~10%, which cuts our fair value to SEK80–120 (100–140).
Quarterly volatility in the legacy business remains high, and while 2019 sales growth of 31% was a clear step forward, Q4 disappointed. With recent impressive ‘relying parties’ announcements, we expect Verisec’s Freja eID offering to become better reflected in the share price. We have lowered our fair value to SEK100–140 (110–150), but this still suggests an attractive investment opportunity in our view.
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