We analyze the capex history & outlook for Global EM Telcos. For this group capex is falling rapidly (-12% in 2024 in US$) as competitive intensity improves and markets consolidate. Excluding China and India, EM Telco capex is already down 23% from peak.
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in April 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on dev...
The property segment was slightly better than Consensus on revenue and gross margin with currency helping. Within property, US and Canada was a touch disappointing, while International was strong (helped by less of a currency headwind than expected). Services revenue and gross margin beat expectations handily, similar to SBAC last night.
Big Telcos’ 4Q24 EBITDA was roughly stable (-0.2%) qoq, but declined slightly by 4% yoy Meanwhile, combined 4Q24 net profit fell slightly by 2% yoy, but rose 11% qoq. During 4Q24, EXCL slightly increased its market share (based on EBITDA) among the top three telcos. We downgrade the telecommunications sector to MARKET WEIGHT from OVERWEIGHT as we expect TLKM, the parent company of Telkomsel (market leader), to book only a slightly moderate top-line growth of 2% yoy in 2025. Our top pick is ISAT.
GREATER CHINA Results Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb12.72/Target: Rmb17.80) 2024: Satisfactory results; expects strong recovery in 2025. Upgrade to BUY. Ningbo Tuopu Group Co (601689 CH/BUY/Rmb50.96/Target: Rmb83.00) 4Q24: Earnings up 38.5% yoy, in line. Maintain BUY with target price unchanged at Rmb83.00. TAL Educational Group (TAL US/BUY/US$9.36/Target: US$14.00) 4QFY25: Earnings miss amid ramped-up investments in AI-powered learning. INDONESIA Sector Telecommun...
Telecommunications: 4Q24: NPAT down slightly by 2% yoy. Downgrade to MARKET WEIGHT. Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp8,475/Target: Rp10,500): 1Q25: Net profit grows 9.8% yoy on the back of NIM expansion. TRADERS’ CORNER Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO IJ): Technical BUY Indosat (ISAT IJ): Technical BUY
The Asia Trade Book for April 2025 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia HY and crossover credits. Please reach out to our analysts to discuss any of these ideas, or other trade recommendations from our Asia coverage.
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in March 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on dev...
Numbers were decent off its higher growth adjacent businesses where non-Tower contribution now stands at 33% of sales. While near-term tower headwind is anticipated now that the merger between XL and Smartfren is approved, TOWR’s exposure to FTTT and FTTH should act as support as telcos expand into the home broadband and into rural Indonesia.
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in February 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on ...
Two Directors at American Tower Corp sold/sold after exercising options 10,634 shares at between 201.670USD and 202.970USD. The significance rating of the trade was 73/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by a...
We picked up three small points from the call with implications for the wireless companies: one on FWA, one on spectrum supply / demand, and one on the impact of AI on network traffic. We don’t have insights to share on AMT specifically this quarter (but we will next quarter).
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in January 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on d...
Indian press is reporting that the Indian government is planning to cut AGR liabilities for the industry by around INR 1 trn (c. $12bn), by cutting 50% of interest and 100% of penalties and interest on penalties relating to the AGR fines. Implication would be a c. INR 520bn (US$ 6.2bn) reduction in liabilities for Vodafone IDEA and around INR 380bn (US $4.5bn) for Bharti.
In our inaugural Asia Monthly for 2025, we share our regional credit outlook for the year, with a focus on China, Macau, India and Indonesia. We also provide a review of 2024, in which we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements for the year. In addition, we provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases in December 2024, summarise the Top/Bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well a...
EXCL’s holiday data traffic increased 19% vs normal days, higher than ISAT’s (more than 10% on 1 Jan 25). We maintain OVERWEIGHT on the telecommunications sector in view of factors such as: a) rising data traffic, b) relatively resilient demand for telco services, and c) potential industry consolidation which could support data monetisation in the long term. Our top picks are EXCL (BUY/Target: Rp3,200) and ISAT (BUY/Target: Rp3,100).
FWA will likely be the key themes of 2025 in Indian Telcos we think, with the market likely to be delivering 5m+ quarterly net adds by the end of the year. This is likely to drive renewed optimism towards Bharti and enable Jio to IPO. Given Jio’s valuation of approaching $200bn if it happens this is likely to be one of the biggest events in Global Telecoms this year. On rolling forward our DCF our Indus pt rises to INR 325 and we lift our recommendation to Neutral, and stay Buyers of both Bharti...
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in November 2024. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the Top/Bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on ...
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