GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: March Conviction Calls: Add Geely, JD, SHKP and Zijin Mining to our BUY list. Take profit on CATL, Desay, JD Logistics, Mengniu, Plover Bay and Tencent. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In Feb 25: Our picks are BBNI, BBRI, MIKA, EXCL, KLBF, JSMR and ASII. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Unprecedented Combo Of Disappointments: Our Feb 25 Alpha Picks sorely underperformed. Mar 25 picks: 99SpeedMart, Alpha IVF, KPJ Healthcare, MrDIY, MYEG, RHB Ba...
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in February 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on ...
We give our thoughts on pricing and total spend ahead of the upcoming THB 121bn (USD 3.6bn) spectrum auction in Thailand (likely in May 2025). Reserve prices seem reasonable, but the early auction of expiring 2027 spectrum means total spend this year is likely to be above our original forecasts.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: PV sales rebound wow but remain low due to wait-and-see sentiment. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao and Desay. Renewable Energy: Solar energy equipment: Policy-driven installation rush to support prices; milder module shipment growth in 2025. Results Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$120.90/Target: HK$150.00): 3QFY25: CMR beat; all-in AI; capex in next three years to exceed that of the past decade. Lenovo Group (992 HK/BUY/HK...
TRUE reported a Bt7.5b net loss in 4Q24, improving yoy but worsening qoq, missing expectations. The larger loss was due to a one-off asset impairment from network modernisation and losses from subsidiaries and associates. Excluding one-off items, core loss was Bt293m (+94% yoy, -113% qoq). We maintain our projections while awaiting more information from the analyst meeting. Maintain BUY on TRUE with a target price of Bt14.50.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB/BUY/Bt36.50/Target: Bt45.00) 4Q24: Above expectations; earnings projected to outperform peers’ in 2025. Bangchak Sriracha (BSRC TB/BUY/Bt4.94/Target: Bt8.00) 4Q24: Results in line with expectations. GFPT (GFPT TB/BUY/Bt9.15/Target: Bt13.00) 4Q24: Earnings miss expectations; deep discount valuation. True Corporation (TRUE TB/BUY/Bt12.80/Target: Bt14.50) 4Q24: Results below our...
Aggregate service revenue trended better on higher contribution from non-mobile, coupled with mobile improvement. Industry mobile was primarily driven by Softbank’s outperformance. Q3 EBITDA dropped on higher mobile marketing costs at NTT which the company seeks to offset through cost efficiencies. DOCOMO is the clear mobile underperformer, but we believe expectations for Fixed recovery is still low, plus there is IOWN optionality. NTT remains our preferred pick.
Rakuten's Q4 and FY 2024 results were solid, with robust revenue growth and strong earnings improvement. The company reached self-funding status at both the group and Mobile levels. Rakuten achieved all of its FY 2024 targets, especially those for the Mobile segment. The company has addressed all of its 2025 debt maturities, and its access to capital remains solid. We are confident that Rakuten will be able to achieve its FY 2025 targets, which appear to be conservative.
Results were mixed again as revenue was in-line with expectations, underlying IFRS EBIT better than Q3, but the Group recorded a net loss. Sequential increase in MNO revenue showed no significant improvement and importantly the company has increased capex guidance for 2025 from “below ¥100bn” to ¥150bn. Cash flow breakeven on mobile remains longer dated than expected in our view and with MNO traction not improving as fast as hoped, we maintain our Reduce recommendation with a ¥400 price target.
ADVANC’s 4Q24 net profit of Bt9.3b is in line with our forecast but exceeds consensus by 5%. Net profit grew strongly (+32% yoy, +5% qoq), driven by higher revenue, improved gross margin and a lower SG&A-to-sales. The ARPU trend continued to rise qoq due to seasonal effects. 2024 full-year earnings totalled Bt35.0b (+32% yoy). We expect ADVANC’s earnings growth to continue in 2025. Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt330.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB/BUY/Bt280.00/Target: Bt330.00) 4Q24: Results in line with our forecast but above consensus. Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB/BUY/Bt17.40/Target: Bt22.00) 4Q24: Results in line; impressive recovery momentum. SVI (SVI TB/BUY/Bt6.90/Target: Bt8.00) 4Q24: Earnings improve qoq and yoy, above expectations. Update Banpu (BANPU TB/HOLD/Bt4.74/Target: Bt5.00...
GREATER CHINA Economics Inflation Seasonal demand lifted downstream inflation. Update Innovent Biologics (1801 HK/BUY/HK$36.25/Target: HK$52.00) Expects significant expansion in 2025; targeting revenue of Rmb20b in 2027. INDONESIA Results Bank Syariah Indonesia (BRIS IJ/BUY/Rp3,020/Target: Rp3,450) 2024: Net profit up 22%, above expectations; upgrade earnings forecasts. MALAYSIA...
KDDI reported an improved bottom-line trend, supported by its steady topline and Lawson’s contribution. While mobile ARPU was marginally down in Q3, it was still growing sequentially, and the company anticipates mobile communication ARPU revenue to inflect back to growth in the next quarter on the back of continued up-trading and UQ to AU brand migration.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls: Add AIA, CR Land, Haier and Han’s Laser to our BUY list. Take profit on Crystal, Geely, Trip.com and Weimob. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Slight Underperformance In Jan 25: Our picks are ISAT, KLBF, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, JSMR, BBNI and ASII. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Spotlight On The Upcoming Results Winners: Our Alpha Picks outperformed in Jan 25. Feb 25 picks: Gamuda, GENM, Kossan, MrDIY, MYEG, Pekat, RGB, RHB Bank, VSI...
We update the NSR GEM Top Picks list. No stocks are dropped, and we add LILAC and TIM Brasil to our list, extending it to a Top-10 list from Top-8. Our picks had a good start, up 12% on average since the start of the year. This note also includes key news & other thoughts in order to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in January 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on d...
The Stargate announcement – The $500bn datacenter, was the opportunity for us to bring together a number of analyses we have carried out in recent weeks, to understand how the economics of AI Infrastructure will shape up over time. We bring together, in the piece we publish today, an initial perspective, which might be groundbreaking. This work will help us understand how the AI landscape will shape up in the next 2-3 years, expect more from us on that topic in coming weeks and months.
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