Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, January 14, 2025

GREATER CHINA Economics Trade Export Growth Rebounded; Rush Order Ahead Of Tariffs? Sector Education Key growth themes in 2025 upon policy clarity and AI integration progress. Property Sales pull back mom before Chinese New Year; updates of 2024 op...

Bible 3Q24 – Industrials: Bouncing Along the Bottom; Glimpses of a 20...

Today, we are publishing the Industrial section our 25th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Industrial semi revenues were again below seasonality in 3Q24, and most companies have guided for a further decline in 4Q24. Visibility on a 2025 recovery remains limited, although Analog Devices remains p...

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, November 06, 2024

GREATER CHINA Strategy Small-Mid Cap Monthly Stronger order visibility into 2025, reiterate BUY on Crystal International and raise target price to HK$5.12. INDONESIA Results Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF IJ/BUY/Rp7,875/Target: Rp12,000) 3Q24: Ahead of consensus expectation – driven by IFAR. Indofood CBP (ICBP IJ/BUY/Rp12,450/Target: Rp15,000) 3Q24: Strong volume growth; core NPAT in line wit...

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, September 10, 2024

GREATER CHINA Economics Inflation Deflationary pressures rising. Sector Construction Building on the positive development of macroeconomic policies in 2H24-2025. Internet 2Q24 results wrap-up: Overall earnings beat; 2H24 outlook remains promising. INDONESIA Small...

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, September 09, 2024

GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales rebound by 10% yoy, beating estimates. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Desay SV. Top SELL: XPeng. INDONESIA Update Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO IJ/BUY/Rp1,130/Target: Rp1,400) Additional capacity of 55MW by Dec 24. Upgrade to BUY with target price unchanged. MALAYSIA Initiate Coverage 99 Speed Mart Retail (99SMART MK/BUY/RM1.65/Target: RM2.00) ...

Strategy - Potential Impact Of Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech

After Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on 23 August, we see a turning point starting with a US Fed rate cut in Sep 24 and lower rates heading into 2025. In the Singapore market, REITs and the property sector should benefit, as should highly-geared companies and those looking to recycle capital. Our current forecasts have incorporated lower NIMs for banks which we believe are protected by their high dividend yields.

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, June 14

GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: EV sales pull back last week. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Tuopu and Joyson Electronics. Top SELLs: XPeng. Internet Strategic revamp to foster re-accelerating growth and shareholders’ return. INDONESIA Update Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN IJ/BUY/Rp1,240/Target: Rp1,700) ...

China Consumer: Dragon Boat Festival: Consumer services, experiential ...

During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, consumer services, experiential spending (eg tourism) and lower-tier cities continued to lead the growth. For China’s consumer sector, we keep Anta, CTGDF, Haidilao, Haier and Shenzhou as our most preferred stocks. At the same time, we add Miniso but remove CR Beer and Midea from the stock picks. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on China’s consumer sector.

PSA Media & Entertainment: Sony / Paramount Update and a Preview of So...

Pelham Smithers updates us on the Sony / Paramount deal and previews Sony’s FY23 results which are due out on 13 May

Match Group (MTCH, Buy, $55 target) 1Q24 Model Update: Lower revenues ...

No change to our $55 target owing to slightly lower estimates offset by higher share buyback assumptions. We walk through detailed changes on Tinder, Hinge and share buybacks within.

Match Group (MTCH, Buy, $55 target) Tinder Trough Deepens as Buybacks ...

What’s New: In this first take following tonight’s results, we touch on: 1. 1Q24 roughly in-line, but 2Q24 and 2024 guidance lower 2. Tinder trough deepens, but still on track for 3Q24 sequential payer growth 3. Hinge growth in line with guidance: RPP better than expected, payers a little light 4. Adjusted OI margins solid, but higher GAAP items called out 5. Share buyback target moved to 75% of FCF from prior 50% target

Match Group (MTCH, Buy, $55 target) Quick Thoughts Ahead of Tuesday’s...

Ahead of Tuesday PM’s earnings report, we review key controversies for MTCH, including: 1. Tinder payers: the moment of truth approaches 2. The path to $1 billion in revenue for Hinge 3. Will MTCH outspend the 50% of FCF target for share buybacks again in 2024? We also review what to look for in the investor letter and listen for on the earnings call, our top questions for management, and potential positive and negative catalysts for MTCH.

Hybridan Research: Sector Review: Artificial intelligence in UK cybers...

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a double-edged sword in cybersecurity. Whilst new AI models, architectures, and innovations are emerging to protect the security posture of organisations, attackers are also benefiting from deepfakes, sophisticated phishing, and automation of malicious codes. To ensure the impact of AI on cybersecurity to be a net-positive, we need to pit good AI against bad AI. Point solutions enhanced with machine learning: Global cybersecurity has been built with point soluti...

Hardman & Co Insight: Streamed content takes over

The Great Correction of 2022 saw the share prices of streamers plunge after market leader Netflix reported a slowdown/fall in subscriber growth. Having formerly been seduced by hectic subscriber growth rates, investors quickly refocused, this time on fundamental metrics such as revenue, margins, profits and cashflow. Since then, streamers have continued to take a steadily greater share of viewing while linear TV continues to decline. But growth in streaming subscribers in the US and UK is now a ...

Uber 4Q23: Strong growth and margin expansion; Our thesis is playing o...

China Automobile Weekly: 2024 As A Year Of Pullback, As Evidenced By Y...

The development of China’s auto market ytd came in as expected with sales weakening, inventories piling up and car prices falling. We maintain our forecasts on China’s 2024 PV and PEV sales growth at -6%/11% respectively, down from 10%/37% in 2023, based on a higher comparison base in 2023, the rollback of stimulus and destocking. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, XPeng and Ganfeng Lithium. Downgrade Li Auto from BUY to SELL, and downgrade Great Wall Motor from BUY to HOLD.

China Automobile Weekly: PEV market share fell to 31% in the first wee...

PEV insurance registrations in China grew 76% yoy and fell 20.3% mom/46% wow in the first week of 2024. However, PEV market share fell from 40% in early-Dec 23 to 31% during the week. Except for Aito, all EV brands saw a drop in insurance registrations, including BYD, Tesla, Li Auto and XPeng, as the year-end promotions had exhausted buying power. We keep our 2024 China PEV sales forecast at 9.9m units (+11% yoy). Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, XPeng and Ganfeng Lithium.

NSR Policy: FCC Upholds Prior Media Ownership Rules While Longer Term ...

Over the holidays, the FCC adopted a Report and Order completing the 2018 quadrennial review of the Commission's broadcast ownership rules, upholding its current media ownership rules with only minor modifications. In this note, we quickly review what the FCC did, the implications for investors, and the broader shifts that will eventually cause a major shift in those rules (as well as what we think investors are missing in their policy analysis of a potential Discovery/Warner/Paramount deal).

NSR Policy: Warner/Discovery/Paramount Deal: Initial Thoughts on Gover...

There are multiple news reports that Warner Bros./Discovery (WBD) and Paramount Global (PARA) are considering a merger. In this note, we provide a quick initial assessment of potential path for government approval of such a transaction.

Thailand Oil & Gas - Seasonal demand drives GRM recovery.

We hold an optimistic outlook on the rebound of GRM and anticipate limited downside of crude oil prices. The oil & gas sector is an appealing investment opportunity, particularly in the refinery business, where we expect a return to core profit levels in 1Q24, despite maintaining a pessimistic stance on the petrochemical sector due to the ongoing supply increase. In the oil & gas sector, we prefer PTTEP, Thai Oil, and BSRC. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.