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Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Deep dive into Chinese Semicap: How much of a headwind for Western pla...

Chinese WFE spending quadrupled in five years to $41bn, driven by aggressive local deployments, while domestic vendors rapidly gained traction, capturing 13% of local spending already, mostly in deposition, etch, and CMP. In this deep dive, we assess the competitiveness of key Chinese vendors, including Naura, AMEC, and SiCarrier. We estimate first the pace (and the scope) at (and on) which they could close the gap with their western peers. On that basis we estimate the share they can gain ov...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Technology: IC / SPE / AI / DC Makes a Comeback as Memory Prices C...

With recent data on global semiconductor shipments improving, forecasts are being raised. Pelham Smithers reviews the outlook for NAND and DRAM and anticipates higher prices ahead on NAND flash.

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Bible 1Q25 – Memory: all set for the upcoming HBM run.

Today, we are publishing the Memory section of our 27th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. DRAM COGS increased 9% YoY but was down 15% QoQ, along usual seasonality and with China curbs hurting Samsung’s HBM. The outlook remains strong, with all manufacturers expecting HBM revenues to more than d...

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Bible 1Q25 – Semicap: Not everyone can gain market share.

Today, we are publishing the Semicap section of our 27th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Semicap equipment revenues were down 7% QoQ, with Chinese spending declining 17% sequentially after two years of elevated demand. Vendors maintain their view of slight WFE spending growth, with memory and...

 PRESS RELEASE

Advantest Ranks Global #1 in Assembly Test Equipment Supplier and Top ...

Advantest Ranks Global #1 in Assembly Test Equipment Supplier and Top 10 Customer Service Categories in 2025 Customer Satisfaction Survey Customers Report High Levels of Satisfaction in Partnering and Trust in Supplier SAN JOSE, Calif., May 22, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Leading semiconductor test equipment supplier Advantest Corporation (TSE: 6857) today announced it has once again received top ratings in the 2025 TechInsights Customer Satisfaction Survey, capturing the No. 1 spot on this prestigious annual survey of global semiconductor companies for the sixth consecutive year. Advante...

 PRESS RELEASE

Advantest to Showcase Latest Test Solutions at SEMICON Southeast Asia ...

Advantest to Showcase Latest Test Solutions at SEMICON Southeast Asia 2025, May 20-22 TOKYO, May 12, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Leading semiconductor test equipment supplier (TSE: 6857) will feature its latest test solutions at SEMICON Southeast Asia 2025 on May 20-22 at the Sands Expo and Convention Centre in Singapore. A gold sponsor of this 30th year special edition, Advantest will showcase innovative, sustainable test technology guided by its new corporate vision, “Be the most trusted and valued test solution company in the semiconductor value chain.” Product and Solution HighlightsLo...

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Tariffs & Memory: the baseline & what’s next.

Evaluating the consequences of tariffs is challenging. As we strengthen our understanding of the tech supply chain, we follow-up with targeted deep dives across our coverage. This note follows recent ones we published on Nvidia, Broadcom, Intel & AMD, TSMC, and Semicap. ​​Read also our broader notes on tariffs: our baseline thesis for an overall perspective, and our assessment of the macro risk.

 PRESS RELEASE

Advantest Unveils SiConic Test Engineering: Unified, Scalable Bench En...

Advantest Unveils SiConic Test Engineering: Unified, Scalable Bench Environment for Debug and Validation Extends SiConic Ecosystem to Empower Test Engineers Across Development Lifecycle—from Structural Test Bring-up to ATE and SLT Deployment TOKYO, May 08, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Leading semiconductor test equipment supplier (TSE: 6857) today unveiled SiConic Test Engineering (TE), the newest addition to the SiConic family introduced in February 2025. SiConic TE offers test engineers the ability to bring up and validate structural and functional tests over high-speed I/O (HSIO) interf...

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

AI re-platforming, tariff pull-ins, autos, weak iPhone cycle, HBM, and...

As always, during earnings season, we wrap-up what happened in the previous week. For our main takes summarized on a single slide, and a few words on each of the 33 names we followed last week, follow the link below.

Pierre FerraguÊ ... (+2)
  • Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Rolf Bulk
Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Tariffs & Semicap equipment: the baseline & what’s next.

Evaluating the consequences of tariffs is challenging. As we strengthen our understanding of the tech supply chain, we follow-up on our initial analysis to evaluate the impact on semicap equipment with more precision. This follows our recent deep dives on the impact on Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD/Intel. Read also our broader notes on tariffs: our baseline thesis for an overall perspective, and our assessment of the macro risk.

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Semiconductors in the crash: Relative valuations walked back 15 years...

As we brace for another tough Monday, we share with you this morning our usual quarterly and extensive review of where fundamentals, expectations, and valuations stand in semis, although, this time, in light of the steep pullback of the last couple of days, and the last couple of months. Over the next 30 slides. We did our best to articulate our expectations for earnings revisions with where we stand on valuation already, and the fundamental backdrop, segment by segment. We conclude with a very...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Strategy: Japan Stock Market Quarterly for 2025 Q2

In this quarterly strategy report, we look to evaluate where we are with regards the bull market conditions, and where those indicators might be headed, factoring in the downside risks, from Trump tariffs and the US economy, BoJ actions, Japanese earnings and valuations.

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA: Semiconductors / SPE: Disco (6146 JT) - Enjoying Its Near-Monopol...

PSA: Semiconductors / SPE: Disco (6146 JT) - Enjoying Its Near-Monopoly Disco's performance has improved due to better gross margins and sales growth. The company expects continued growth in revenue and gross profit, despite some challenges. Future growth is anticipated in the AI chip and SiC markets.

 PRESS RELEASE

Advantest to Showcase Latest IC Test Solutions at SEMICON China 2025, ...

Advantest to Showcase Latest IC Test Solutions at SEMICON China 2025, March 26-28 in Shanghai TOKYO, March 18, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Leading semiconductor test equipment supplier Advantest Corporation (TSE: 6857) will showcase its latest test solutions at SEMICON China 2025 on March 26-28 at the Shanghai New International Expo Centre in Shanghai. Advantest will highlight its broad portfolio of leading-edge test technology for applications, including advanced memory, automotive, RF wireless communications and CMOS image sensors. Product DisplaysAdvantest will be located at booth #443...

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Bible 4Q24 – Memory: AI HBM accelerating, cycle elsewhere close to a b...

Today, we are publishing the Memory section of our 26th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. DRAM COGS increased 7% QoQ, with HBM up 65%, accounting for virtually all the growth. HBM demand remains strong, with revenues expected to more than double in 2025. The non-datacenter outlook is still blea...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Semiconductors / SPE: Advantest (6857) – Winning Market Share in a...

Advantest has attracted attention as an Nvidia play, but its market share gains are also noteworthy. The question is whether they justify high valuations.

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Bible 4Q24 – Semicap: everyone aims to gain share in a muted WFE marke...

Today, we are publishing the Semicap Equipment section of our 26th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Semicap equipment revenues were up 10% QoQ with non-Chinese spending recovering and Chinese spending beginning to decline. Vendors expect Chinese spending to decline significantly in 2025 but st...

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