PSA Semiconductors / SPE: Tokyo Electron (8035 JT) FY25 Q1 Results Rev...

With the release of TEL's disappointing FY25 Q1 results, Pelham Smithers asks whether it is a one-off, or whether TEL is a “canary in a coal mine”?

AI capex & replatforming; semicap into 2026; Apple, Arm & more.

As always, during earnings season, we wrap-up what happened in the previous week. For our main takes summarized on a single slide, and a few words on each of the 34 names we followed last week, follow the link below.

TEL 1FQ26: Miss and guide down; cautious tone on 2026. Neutral, ¥25,20...

TEL 1FQ26: Miss and guide down; cautious tone on 2026.

Tokyo Electron reported 1FQ26. Please click the link for our take on the print.

America’s AI Action Plan. Our 5 quick takes.

The Trump administration published its AI Action Plan yesterday. Please click the link below to see our summary on the 5 most relevant points for tech infrastructure and the broader AI supply chain.

ASML: best positioned for 2026 in the Semicap pack. Upgrade to Buy, €7...

Consensus expects ASML to grow revenues 2% next year, compared to 6-12% for its peers. That is conservative. If anything, we see room for ASML to outperform, driven by high leading-edge exposure. Beyond 2026, we also expect ASML to grow in the upper end of its peer group. Normal order intake in 3Q would allow management to ease concerns around 2026 growth, and with the stock trading on 25x forward earnings we see limited risk of further de-rating. We hence upgrade the stock to Buy, €790 Target...

Semi cycle update. Much ado about nothing: Tariff and DeepSeek effects...

We publish today our quarterly and extensive review of where fundamentals, expectations, and valuations stand in semis and give our views on how investors should be positioned for the rest of the year. For details, please follow the link below.

Memory: China XPU ban lifted. Samsung most exposed. All benefit

Nvidia announced it can resume shipping XPUs to China. We’ve prepared a one-slider summarising the implications for memory vendors.

Deep dive into Chinese Semicap: How much of a headwind for Western pla...

Chinese WFE spending quadrupled in five years to $41bn, driven by aggressive local deployments, while domestic vendors rapidly gained traction, capturing 13% of local spending already, mostly in deposition, etch, and CMP. In this deep dive, we assess the competitiveness of key Chinese vendors, including Naura, AMEC, and SiCarrier. We estimate first the pace (and the scope) at (and on) which they could close the gap with their western peers. On that basis we estimate the share they can gain ov...

PSA Technology: IC / SPE / AI / DC Makes a Comeback as Memory Prices C...

With recent data on global semiconductor shipments improving, forecasts are being raised. Pelham Smithers reviews the outlook for NAND and DRAM and anticipates higher prices ahead on NAND flash.

Bible 1Q25 – Memory: all set for the upcoming HBM run.

Today, we are publishing the Memory section of our 27th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. DRAM COGS increased 9% YoY but was down 15% QoQ, along usual seasonality and with China curbs hurting Samsung’s HBM. The outlook remains strong, with all manufacturers expecting HBM revenues to more than d...

Bible 1Q25 – Semicap: Not everyone can gain market share.

Today, we are publishing the Semicap section of our 27th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Semicap equipment revenues were down 7% QoQ, with Chinese spending declining 17% sequentially after two years of elevated demand. Vendors maintain their view of slight WFE spending growth, with memory and...

Tariffs & Memory: the baseline & what’s next.

Evaluating the consequences of tariffs is challenging. As we strengthen our understanding of the tech supply chain, we follow-up with targeted deep dives across our coverage. This note follows recent ones we published on Nvidia, Broadcom, Intel & AMD, TSMC, and Semicap. ​​Read also our broader notes on tariffs: our baseline thesis for an overall perspective, and our assessment of the macro risk.

AI re-platforming, tariff pull-ins, autos, weak iPhone cycle, HBM, and...

As always, during earnings season, we wrap-up what happened in the previous week. For our main takes summarized on a single slide, and a few words on each of the 33 names we followed last week, follow the link below.

Tokyo Electron 4FQ25: back-end weighted FY26guide at risk. We are caut...