Middle East - Iran turmoil/Impact assessment

In this ING equities impact assessment of the situation in the Middle East report, we focus on a selection of 11 companies which we cover and we expect to be impacted by the current situation in the Middle East following the war in Iran, which started on 28 February and has since spread further into the region. We found that every company in this report faces its own challenges in the short term, while we also discuss the longer-term strategic implications.

Orange/Telia/Tele2 and whole sector: Downgrade to Neutral Downgrading...

After some strong share price moves, and now with limited upside to our target prices, we downgrade Orange, Tele2 and Telia to Neutral from Buy. This is a valuation call with no change to thesis.

Benelux Morning Notes

Aalberts: In-line FY25, but low quality / AMG: 4Q25 beat by 7%; in-line 2026 guidance / Bekaert: In-line 2025, cautious outlook for 2026 to result in c.8% consensus cut / CMB.TECH: A small bit beat but not the full story / Corbion: Dividend sweetener / CTP: Q4 results lighter due to some delays; stronger 2026 outlook / DEME: Strong FY25 numbers and FY26 outlook / Elia Group: Preview FY25 results / SBM Offshore: Another step-up in shareholder return / Syensqo: Substantial miss in 4Q25; FY26 outlo...

Morning Notes : ARGX BB, BEKB BB, CRBN NA, CMBT BB, SEQUA BB, SOF BB, ...

: ARGX BB, BEKB BB, CRBN NA, CMBT BB, SEQUA BB, SOF BB, UCB BB, SHUR BB, CTPNV NA, DEME BB, SYENS BB

CMB.Tech Solid 4Q25 & 1Q26 fixtures, fleet renewal ongoing, LT contrac...

Over 4Q25, CMB.TECH reported a net profit of $90.1m ($0.31 p.s.). Corrected for $49.5m capital gains on vessel disposals the adjusted EBITDA was $272.5m well above our $215m forecast. A $0.16 p.s. interim dividend was declared. 1Q26 to date fixtures point to a strong start of the year and leave considerable upside to our assumptions. While the crude tanker rates are making headlines daily, we are impressed by the solid fixtures and rates in dry bulk, which makes up >50% of GAV. The contract back...

Morning Notes : DSFIR NA, CMBT BB, GBLB BB, PROX BB, NXFIL NA

: DSFIR NA, CMBT BB, GBLB BB, PROX BB, NXFIL NA

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Monitoring for a Pullback We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went to neutral. We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $257 on IWM (up from $245) continue to hold. We continue to see deterioration in market dynamics, and while we expect a period of consolidation/pullback, the afo...

Telia (Buy, TP: SEK46, +12%) Telenor (Neutral, TP: NOK150, -6%) Telia...

Telia has announced a RAN sharing deal with ICE in Norway. We look at the impact of this deal (first derivative and second derivative effects to both Telia and Telenor) and provide some feedback from a management meeting we had this morning with Telia CEO and CFO – which also includes commentary on the outlook in Finland and Sweden M&A.

Telia Company AB: 2 directors

Two Directors at Telia Company AB bought 15,880 shares at between 39.500SEK and 40.490SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over t...

Telia/ice RAN sharing: modest upside over time

Telia (Buy, TP: SEK 46, +15%) Post Q4 25 model update – The Buy case ...

In this note, we update our model and thoughts following the Q4 results (HERE) incorporating conference call feedback and compare our new estimates to guidance and consensus. We have lifted SR expectations for FY26, but EBITDA has come down a touch.

Solid execution, but valuation still caps upside

Telia (Buy, TP: SEK 48, +18%) Q4 25: Good FCF beat and DPS increase

Telia has reported a mixed set of Q4 results, with a modest EBITDA miss adjusting for Sweden Pension, but a good FCF beat (+9%, even after normalizing for NWC). Guidance is broadly in line with expectations for 2026, and the DPS has been lifted for the first time in four years, which consensus did not expect.

Solid but undramatic Q4, dividend raise

Improving execution warrants a neutral stance

Morning Notes : ASRNL NA, BAR BB, CMBT BB

: ASRNL NA, BAR BB, CMBT BB

CMB.Tech Intelligent asset disposal showcasing skill to time the cycle

CMBT struck the iron while it was hot and in line with its fleet rejuvenation strategy has been offloading 6 older VLCCs and two Capesizes. We estimate the aggregate disposal value at $500m. We expect the block sale to have occurred at firm prices absent discount -perhaps even exceeding our and Clarksons fair market values- considering the booming VLCC rates witnessed in 4Q25. Market rates in this segment were well above $100.000/day at numerous times past months. Half of the capital gain of $26...