reports
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 23/05/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Adding four low risk drill-ready shallow gas prospects to start drilling by YE25 – ADX has now matured 13 shallow gas prospects across the ADX-AT-I and ADX-AT-II licence areas in Austria. The play is proven, supported by historical discoveries within the basin. Nearby historical discoveries in the area have produced 220 bcf to date. The prospects benefit from AVO anomalies, enhanc...
TLW TULLOW OIL PLC
EGY VAALCO ENERGY INC.
CNE CAIRN ENERGY PLC
PANR PANTHEON RESOURCES
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
SAVE SAVANNAH ENERGY
SQZ SERICA ENERGY
FEC FRONTERA ENERGY CORP
ENOG ENERGEAN PLC
ANGS ANGUS ENERGY
JSE JADESTONE ENERGY
PNOR PETRONOR E&P LTD
ITH ITHACA ENERGY PLC
NOG NOSTRUM OIL & GAS PLC
ADX ADX ENERGY LTD
AST ASCENT RESOURCES PLC
HEX HELIX EXPLORATION PLC
- Stephane Foucaud
Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Another very good well result. Triton on...
• From January to April 2025, production averaged 26.5 mboe/d. This is consistent with 1Q25 production of 27.6 mboe/d, which benefited from one month of output from Triton. • Repairs at Triton have been completed, and production remains on track to restart in June. The FY25 production guidance of 33–37 mboe/d, with US$220–250 mm in capex, has been reaffirmed. Assuming 2Q25 production of 25 mboe/d (excluding Triton), this implies 2H25 production of 41–47 mboe/d. • The BE01 well (SQZ: 100% WI) has...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 09/05/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK49 per share: ~12 mbbl/d in 1Q25. Re-iterating FY25 guidance – 1Q25 production was ~12 mbbl/d, including 6,841 bbl/d in Gabon, 3,661 bbl/d in Equatorial Guinea and 1,492 bbl/d in Tunisia. Production in Gabon and Equatorial Guinea was previously reported by BW Energy and Kosmos Energy. Equatorial Guinea output was temporarily impacted by unplanned downtime at the Ceiba Cluster, but operations ...
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
GPRK GEOPARK
MSMN MOSMAN OIL AND GAS
CNE CAIRN ENERGY PLC
TXP TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION
GENL GENEL ENERGY
MUR MURPHY OIL CORPORATION
PXT PAREX RESOURCES INC.
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
SNM SHAMARAN PETROLEUM CORP.
SQZ SERICA ENERGY
ZPHR ZEPHYR ENERGY
KOS KOSMOS ENERGY LTD.
BWE BW ENERGY
HBR HARBOUR ENERGY PLC
IGAS IGAS ENERGY PLC
TNZ TENAZ ENERGY CORP
- Stephane Foucaud
Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Catalysts ahead
• The envisaged merger between EnQuest and Serica is not proceeding at this time. Given the drop in Brent since the potential transaction leaked on 7 March, this outcome is unsurprising. Given Serica’s prospects as a standalone company, there was no imperative for the company to force a deal. There are multiple catalysts to the share price in the coming months. • Production at Triton is expected to restart in June. With the W7Z well on the Guillemot North West field (Serica: 10%) and the EV02 we...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 28/02/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: 2nd success at bypassed carbonate formation intervals boosts production to >12 mboe/d - Condor has successfully perforated and brought online bypassed carbonate formations at a second well. As a result, production has increased from 11,455 boe/d reported last week to an average of 12,004 boe/d over the last six days. Using a combination of legacy data and reprocessed 3-D seis...
GTE GRAN TIERRA ENERGY
GPRK GEOPARK
CVX CHEVRON CORPORATION
ENI ENI S.P.A.
ALVOF ALVOPETRO ENERGY LTD
SEI. SINTANA ENERGY
CASP CASPIAN SUNRISE
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
SQZ SERICA ENERGY
AOI AFRICA OIL CORP
KOS KOSMOS ENERGY LTD.
ORC/B ORCA EXPLORATION GROUP CL B
JSE JADESTONE ENERGY
CRCL CORCEL
PXEN PROSPEX ENERGY PLC
ATOM ATOME ENERGY PLC
IGAS IGAS ENERGY PLC
J4V VAR ENERGI ASA
BP. BP PLC
HEVI HELIUM EVOLUTION
CDR INC. (HEVI)
CNECN CONDOR ENERGIES INC
CANACOL
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 21/02/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: Very high flow rate at bypassed zone boosts production and unlocks reserves - A potential bypassed 60 m gas pay section, identified using advanced cased-hole logging tools and reprocessed existing 3-D seismic data, was put in production over a 23 m perforated interval at a rate of 1,100 boe/d, increasing to 1,300 boe/d over the past five days as the completion fluid has been ...
SEY STERLING ENERGY PLC
MUR MURPHY OIL CORPORATION
ENI ENI S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
BOR BORDERS & SOUTHERN PETROLEUM PLC
PANR PANTHEON RESOURCES
BPV BAHAMAS PETROLEUM CO. PLC
SQZ SERICA ENERGY
PHAR PHAROS ENERGY
DGOC DIVERSIFIED GAS & OIL
ZPHR ZEPHYR ENERGY
CRCL CORCEL
TAL PETROTAL (TAL)
WDS WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LTD
PNOR PETRONOR E&P LTD
ITH ITHACA ENERGY PLC
Z29 029 GROUP SE
CDR CONDOR ENERGIES INC
PLSR PULSAR HELIUM INC.
- Stephane Foucaud
Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Triton shut down until March: frustratin...
• Production at Triton has been suspended due to issues caused by Storm Éowyn, which resulted in minor damage to one of the cargo tanks. While preparing to conduct repairs, an integrity issue with a coupling in the inert gas line required for purging the tanks was identified. The FPSO remains offline pending identification of the root cause. • Production is now expected to restart in mid to late March, but the summer maintenance shutdown could also be longer than the expected 40 days as further ...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 24/01/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Historic permit award in Italy opens a new growth area - ADX has been offered and accepted the “d 363 C.R-.AX” permit in the Sicily Channel, offshore Italy, covering a maximum area of 346 km2. ADX applied for the permit in 2018, but the moratorium on awarding new exploration blocks in Italy was only lifted last year. ADX will become a licensed operator in Italy as well as Austria ...
GPRK GEOPARK
EGY VAALCO ENERGY INC.
SEY STERLING ENERGY PLC
ENW ENWELL ENERGY
IOX INTEROIL EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION ASA
PANR PANTHEON RESOURCES
ENQ ENQUEST PLC
SAVE SAVANNAH ENERGY
SQZ SERICA ENERGY
PHAR PHAROS ENERGY
NTOG NOSTRA TERRA OIL & GAS COMPANY
GKP GULF KEYSTONE PETROLEUM LTD.
ENOG ENERGEAN PLC
ZPHR ZEPHYR ENERGY
OKEA OKEA
JSE JADESTONE ENERGY
HBR HARBOUR ENERGY PLC
CEQ CRITERIUM ENERGY LTD.
PRD PREDATOR OIL & GAS HOLDINGS PLC
ADX ADX ENERGY LTD
J4V VAR ENERGI ASA
SHELL ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
HEX HELIX EXPLORATION PLC
- Stephane Foucaud
Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): 40 mboe/d production in 2025. Expect gen...
• FY24 production of 34.6 mboe/d had been reported previously. • The GE-05 well (Serica WI: 100%) has been brought into production at a stable rate of 6 mbbl/d after having flowed 9 mbbl/d on test. This exceeds our estimate of 3 mbbl/d. The recent B6 well had a net IP rate of over 5 mboe/d (~8 mboe/d gross) when brought online. • YE24 net debt was US$71 mm; which is below our estimate of US$105 mm. The company expects an additional US$12 mm cash inflow from a December lifting post YE24 (to be re...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 10/01/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/ CN)C; Target price of £0.80 per share: Flow rate in line with expectations at AB-1. Two more appraisal wells in January - The AB-1 (Alberta Llanos) exploration well is now on production at an oil rate of 658 bbl/d gross (329 bbl/d net) with 49% water cut from 62 feet of net pay in the Ubaque. The IP rate is in line with the expectations set out in the company’s September corporate presentation (321 bbl/d net)...
ALVOF ALVOPETRO ENERGY LTD
SEI. SINTANA ENERGY
TRP TOWER RESOURCES PLC
VLE VALEURA ENERGY INC.
SQZ SERICA ENERGY
DGOC DIVERSIFIED GAS & OIL
ZPHR ZEPHYR ENERGY
CORO CORO ENERGY
AXL. ARROW EXPLORATION LTD
TAL PETROTAL (TAL)
KIST KISTOS PLC
PNOR PETRONOR E&P LTD
SHELL ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
PLSR PULSAR HELIUM INC.
- Stephane Foucaud
Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Triton back on stream. Compressor vulner...
• Triton production resumed on 27 December 2024 following a shut-down of about three weeks, within the guidance of two to four weeks. • There was brief period of unscheduled downtime at Bruce due to a subsea intervention associated with the Rhum field. Production at Bruce has now resumed. Total FY24 production was 34.6 mboe/d including 25.1 mboe/d in 4Q24. 4Q24 production of 7.3 mboe/d at the “other assets” was particularly high given the contribution from Erskine that restarted production at th...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 13/12/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Reflections on Welchau - Three intervals in the Reifling formation (1324 m-1340 m, 1346 m-1351 m and 1358 m-1382 m MD) were perforated but only limited inflow was determined. No fluid could reach the surface after the well was shut in. Sampling of the well indicated only completion brine (not reservoir fluid) and fine solid particles of unknown origin. ADX will analyse the particl...
EGY VAALCO ENERGY INC.
A2PAZ7 TETHYS PETROLEUM
TXP TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION
PXT PAREX RESOURCES INC.
SEI. SINTANA ENERGY
PANR PANTHEON RESOURCES
SQZ SERICA ENERGY
GKP GULF KEYSTONE PETROLEUM LTD.
FEC FRONTERA ENERGY CORP
ORCA ORCADIAN ENERGY PLC
SEAPT NO SEACREST PETROLEO BERMUDA - SEAPT NO
ADX ADX ENERGY LTD
J4V VAR ENERGI ASA
MCFNF MCF ENERGY LTD
CDR CONDOR ENERGIES INC
PLSR PULSAR HELIUM INC.
- Stephane Foucaud
Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Bolt-on acquisition provides tax synergi...
• Serica is acquiring the UK assets of the Parkmead Group for an initial consideration US$6.5 mm in cash. • The transaction includes 50% WI in the Skerryvore prospect (Serica already owns 20%) and 50% in Fynn Beauly (heavy oil discovery). An additional deferred consideration of US$11.7 mm will be paid in stages over the next 3 years. On approval of a FDPs, Serica would make contingent payments of £0.8/bbl with a cap of £30 mm for Skerryvore and £90 mm for Fynn Beauly. • The transaction is expect...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 06/12/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN)C; Target price of £0.08 per share: US$100 mm guarantees highlight the value of the South Africa energy trading business - British International Investment (BII) and GuarantCo have announced a US$100 mm guarantee finance facility for Etana Energy, the South African electricity trading platform which is owned and was co-founded by Chariot (49%) and H1 Holdings (51%). Etana is one of the few companies holding an electric...
GPRK GEOPARK
A2PAZ7 TETHYS PETROLEUM
GENL GENEL ENERGY
CUE CUE ENERGY RESOURCES
SEI. SINTANA ENERGY
CHAR CHARIOT OIL & GAS
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
SAVE SAVANNAH ENERGY
SQZ SERICA ENERGY
DNO DNO ASA CLASS A
PHAR PHAROS ENERGY
CNE CANACOL ENERGY LTD
ZPHR ZEPHYR ENERGY
SDX SDX ENERGY
TAL PETROTAL (TAL)
ORCA ORCADIAN ENERGY PLC
SHELL ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
- Stephane Foucaud
Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Compressor at Triton down for 2-4 weeks
• After resumption of production at the Triton FPSO last week, an issue with one of the compressor seals has been discovered which has resulted in production being suspended. • These repairs are expected to take 2-4 weeks. We are now cautiously assuming that Triton will be offline until YE24. • Issues at Triton’s compressors have had a significant impact on production in 2024. With Triton and Bruce fully operational, production has exceeded 50 mboe/d. Current production is only 28 mboe/d. • Add...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 29/11/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of NOK51 per share: Water inflow from a small interval in Welchau deeper formation. Continuing well test up hole – Two intervals in the Steinalm formation (1452.5 m-1463.5 m and 1474.5 m-1480 m MD) were tested at a stable rate (natural flow) of 240-290 bbl/d of drilling mud, likely contaminated formation water and some oil traces. Gas was initially observed at surface. While the achieved flow rate hig...
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
TLW TULLOW OIL PLC
GTE GRAN TIERRA ENERGY
GPRK GEOPARK
RKH ROCKHOPPER EXPLORATION
A2PAZ7 TETHYS PETROLEUM
OMV OMV AG
REP REPSOL SA
ENW ENWELL ENERGY
VLE VALEURA ENERGY INC.
SQZ SERICA ENERGY
PMG PARKMEAD GROUP
ENOG ENERGEAN PLC
SENX SERINUS ENERGY
AXL. ARROW EXPLORATION LTD
HBR HARBOUR ENERGY PLC
SOUC SOUTHERN ENERGY CORP
CEQ CRITERIUM ENERGY LTD.
ADX ADX ENERGY LTD
BCE BEACON ENERGY PLC
CDR CONDOR ENERGIES INC
- Stephane Foucaud
Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Compressor at Triton back on line
• The first compressor at Triton has been repaired and the platform is expected to be back online this week. This represents a few weeks’ delay but the restart will boost production materially. • With the recent addition of the B6 well (>5 mboe/d net), total production was already over 50 mboe/d on 2 October. Since then, the Gannet GE-05 well has been tied-in and the EC1 well (Guillemot NW field) has reached TD (first production in 1Q25). Overall, we forecast that Serica could produce ~48 mboe/d...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 01/11/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.80 per share: Another positive operating update – The work-overs of two new existing wells have added 441 boe/d after a combined 20 m of previously unperforated reservoir pay was accessed. The first well is producing 410 boe/d. It was previously shut-in. The second well is producing an extra 31 boe/d (+65%) and continues to clean-up. With a total cost of 100 wells on Condor’s fields includ...
FP TOTAL SE
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
SEPL SEPLAT PETROLEUM DEVELOPMENT COMPANY
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
EOG EUROPA OIL & GAS (HOLDINGS) PLC
EGY VAALCO ENERGY INC.
A2PAZ7 TETHYS PETROLEUM
ENI ENI S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
SEI. SINTANA ENERGY
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
TOU TLOU ENERGY
SQZ SERICA ENERGY
DELT DELTIC ENERGY
BP. BP P.L.C.
AOI AFRICA OIL CORP
OKEA OKEA
NOG NOSTRUM OIL & GAS PLC
SEAPT NO SEACREST PETROLEO BERMUDA - SEAPT NO
J4V VAR ENERGI ASA
SHELL ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
CDR CONDOR ENERGIES INC
- Stephane Foucaud
Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): UK budget better than feared
• While the new fiscal regime for UK upstream oil and gas in yesterday’s UK budget incorporates a 3% increase in EPL (to 38%) and the elimination of the 29% investment uplift allowance for EPL purposes, this is a better outcome than feared. • While these changes were expected, the industry and investors had been concerned by the possibility that capex investment might not be fully deductible for EPL purposes. That risk has now been removed. • In addition, the 62.5% investment uplift allowance f...
- Stephane Foucaud
Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Operational glitch creates an opportunit...
• Production at the Triton FPSO has been interrupted due to potential dry gas seal failure at the A gas compressor. The vulnerability of Triton to an issue with the single compressor was flagged previously, and improving the robustness of production was highlighted by Serica’s new CEO as a priority. The second compressor would have reduced the operational vulnerability of the FPSO but it has not yet been repaired. This second compressor is now expected to be brought back in service in 1Q25 inste...
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