What’s new: Tencent’s reported 2Q25 top-line results that were above consensus and our expectations. Rev growth momentum could continue in 3Q partly driven by resiliency across key business segments. We up our PT from HKD650 to HKD750 on top-line strength. Our updated PT of HKD750 implies a 22.5x FY26E P/E. We maintain our BUY rating. Analysts: Jin Yoon
Tencent’s 2Q25 results came in better than expected. Revenue grew 14.5% yoy to Rmb184.5b, 3% ahead of our and consensus estimates. Gross margin expanded 3.6ppt yoy to 56.9%, outpacing consensus forecasts. Non-IFRS operating profit grew 18.5% yoy to Rmb69.2b, while non-IFRS operating margin expanded 1.3ppt yoy to 37.5% on the back of a positive shift in revenue mix. Non-IFRS diluted EPS ramped up 13% yoy, 3.5% higher than consensus estimates. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$736.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Money Supply July's M1 growth accelerated to 5.6% yoy (+1.0ppt), exceeding the 5.2% yoy consensus forecast. M2 growth rose to 8.8% yoy (+0.5ppt), surpassing the 8.3% yoy consensus forecast. However, new bank loans turned negative at -Rmb0.05t, falling well short of expectations (Rmb0.3t). New TSF also disappointed at Rmb1.16t. While outstanding TSF growth improved to 9.0% yoy (+0.1ppt), outstanding bank loans growth weakened to 6.9% yoy (-0.2ppt), suggesting weak priva...
GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply Credit demand remains weak, though money supply improved. Results Nexteer Automotive Group (1316 HK/BUY/HK$6.92/Target: HK$10.00) 1H25: Earnings beat estimates on margins. Upgrade from HOLD to BUY. Raise target price to HK$10.00 Tencent Holdings (700 HK/BUY/HK$586.00/Target: HK$736.00) 2Q25: Resilient results; unfolding AI monetisation in online games...
Tencent will release its 2Q25 results on 13 Aug 25. We forecast its 2Q25 revenue growing 11.5% yoy, driven by resilient game grossing and online ad revenue growth. We like Tencent as it is a key proxy for benefitting from the online games sector’s countercyclical resilience feature and the accelerating adoption of AI which has played a role in enhancing cost efficiency and boosting game development productivity. Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$650.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy China & Hong Kong Property The 30 Jul Politburo meeting emphasised strict controls on hidden government debt and high-quality/prudent urban renewal. CR Land’s acquisition of two prime residential projects in Shanghai (Rmb24.5b) highlights opportunities for SOE developers as LGFVs divest assets under stricter oversight. While Tier 1 and 2 cities show further sales weakness, Hong Kong is progressing with destocking, with potential changes to ease capital transfers for mai...
GREATER CHINA Strategy China & Hong Kong Property: CR Land’s acquisition of Shanghai projects points to further consolidation towards SOEs; potential easing of capital transfer will be key focus for Hong Kong market. Results Launch Tech (2488 HK/NOT RATED/HK$12.03): 1H25: Robust overseas and software business growth; step-up in dividend. Update Tencent Holdings (700 HK/BUY/HK$559.00/Target: HK$650.00): 2Q25 results preview: Strong game pipeline and AI-powered adtech as key catalysts. INDONESIA ...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls: Add JBM Healthcare and Lenovo to our BUY list. Take profit on CATL, Han’s Laser, KE Holdings and Longfor. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In July: Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, AKRA, ARCI, BBNI, KLBF, MTEL, and MYOR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Some Opportunities Amid A “Summer Lull”: Our July 25 Alpha Picks outperformed. Aug 25 picks: Coraza, Eco World, Gamuda, Hume Cement, IJM, Inari, RHB and Zetrix. SINGAPORE ...
In July, the HSI and MSCI China index extended their growths, rising 2.9% mom and 4.5% mom respectively to reach their peak on 24 July before pulling pack in the latest week, as investors tend to take profit after the Politburo announcement. With another 90-day tariff delay from the US, we maintain a positive outlook for leading domestic stocks in healthcare and IT. New additions to our BUY list are JBM Healthcare and Lenovo. We take profit on CATL, Han’s Laser, KE Holdings and Longfor.
WAIC 2025 was held in Shanghai on 26-28 July under the theme "Intelligent Horizons, Shared Future". The focus of WAIC this year shifted from LLM to the next frontier – AI applications and AI agents. As AI capabilities extend from the cloud to edge devices, a transformative evolution in human-AI interaction is underway, characterised by more tangible, embodied forms and empathetic voice interfaces. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet WAIC - Battlefield of AI applications and agents to reshape productivity. Results WuXi AppTec (2359 HK/BUY/HK$111.70/Target: HK$146.00) 1H25: Results beat; benefitting from growing CRDMO service demand. Upgrade to BUY. INDONESIA Results AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ/BUY/Rp1,345/Target: Rp1,525) 2Q25: Momentum builds, but 4Q25 to del...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Calls: Add CATL, KE Holdings, Longfor, Midea Group, Tencent and TME to our BUY list. Take profit on Prudential. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances In June: Our new Alpha Picks are ANTM, BBCA, ERAA, ICBP, MYOR, MIKA, AMRT and TLKM. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Positioning For Positive US Trade Deals: Our Jun 25 Alpha Picks outperform. Jul 25 picks: Coraza, Duopharma, Eco World, Gamuda, Hume Cement, IJM, Inari and MYEG. SINGAP...
We opine that the intact grossing momentum in 2Q25 coupled with the anticipation of high-quality game releases set a compelling prelude to the upcoming summer holiday boom. We like the online game sector as it is a countercyclical play and is less susceptible to the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Our preference lies with Tencent, given its strong game grossing growth momentum and its position as a key proxy for AI application beneficiaries. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
June’s HSI and MSCI China Index rose 3.4% mom and 4.0% mom respectively, despite the pullback due to the Middle East tensions. July may see increased volatility as the US looks to bring the tariff negotiations to a close. At this juncture, we continue to favour domestic policy beneficiaries and sector leaders. New additions to our BUY list are CATL, KE Holdings, Longfor, Midea Group, Tencent and Tencent Music Entertainment. We take profit on Prudential.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Calls Add CATL, KE Holdings, Longfor, Midea Group, Tencent and TME to our BUY list. Take profit on Prudential. Sector Online Games Upcoming new game releases to capitalise on the summer holiday season. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances In June Our new alpha picks are ANTM, BBCA, ERAA, ICBP, MYOR, MIKA...
Trade deal in focus. Notwithstanding the 90-day truce on tariff escalation, it is still a 50/50 if there will be a “Big Beautiful Deal” between the US and China. The US is steadfast in wanting to cap China’s growth and restricting her access to the latest technology, while China is making a firm stand on its economic rights. We expect that higher US tariffs on Chinese goods are unavoidable, likely closer to the 60% mark, if Trump were to be seen making a credible move to onshore production in ...
This CY25 Q2 has been another tremendous quarter for the Japanese video game sector, driven by the release of the Switch 2. Analyst Pelham Smithers reviews the performance and offerings of the video game stocks PSA covers and delivers his updated rankings.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: June Conviction Calls: Add Prudential and Sino Biopharm to our BUY list. Take profit on SHKP and Trip.com. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances In May: Good performances from most with the exception of GOTO and BUKA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Raising Emphasis On Infrastructure Plays: Our May 25 Alpha Picks outperformed with resounding success. June 25 picks: Duopharma, Eco World, Gamuda, Hume Cement, IJM, MYEG, Northeast Group. SINGAPORE S...
Two Directors at Tencent Holdings Limited sold 37,000 shares at between 509.080HKD and 518.500HKD. The significance rating of the trade was 99/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's director...
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