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Research Department
  • Research Department

IBERIAN DAILY 03 MAY + 1Q’24 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS ...

NEWS SUMMARY: ACERINOX, IBERDROLA. At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 1Q’24 results to be released over the coming days in Spain. Doubts on the market despite an accommodating Fed With the exceptions of the IBEX and FTSE 100, it was a session of losses on European stock markets with strong sector dispersion, and where falling sovereign debt yields reeled in part o...

Research Department
  • Research Department

INFORME DIARIO 03 MAYO + RDOS. ESPAÑA Y EUROPA 1T’24. IDEAS DESTACADAS...

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: ACERINOX, IBERDROLA. EUROPA: AXA, LINDE, SOCIÉTE GÉNÉRALE. Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y previews de Rdos. 1T’24 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días. Dudas en el mercado a pesar de una Fed complaciente A excepción del Ibex y FTSE 100, jornada en rojo en las principales bolsas europeas c...

Louis Boujard ... (+3)
  • Louis Boujard
  • CFA
  • Philippe Ourpatian

Fortum : Une bonne publication mais peu de perspectives

>Un résultat supérieur aux attentes - L'EBITDA comparable s'est élevé à 622 M€ (-20 %YoY), au-dessus de nos attentes de 525 M€ et du consensus Vara de 549 M€. L’EBIT comparable s'élève à 530 M€ (-24%) au-dessus de notre prévision et du consensus à 452 M€. Le résultat net a également été meilleur qu'attendu à 430 M€ (-11%) contre 350 M€ attendus (ODDO BHF et consensus). Par division la surprise vient de l’activité génération électrique avec un EBIT de 513 M€ (-29%) con...

Louis Boujard ... (+3)
  • Louis Boujard
  • CFA
  • Philippe Ourpatian

Fortum : A good publication but limited prospects

>Earnings top estimates - Comparable EBITDA totalled € 622m in Q1 2024 (-20% y-o-y), above our expectations of € 525m and the Vara consensus estimate of € 549m. Comparable EBIT was € 530m (-24%), above our forecast and the consensus of € 452m. Net profit was also better than expected, at € 430m (-11%) against an expected € 350m (ODDO BHF and the consensus). By division, the surprise came from the electricity generation business, which performed better than expected, ...

Richard Williamson
  • Richard Williamson

Esker - Targeting margin recovery in FY24

Esker reported FY23 results in line with our expectations. Revenue grew 12% (14% constant currency) while inflationary effects and sales commissions on bookings outperformance in H223 resulted in operating profit declining 16% y-o-y. The high level of contracts signed towards the end of FY23 provide good support for revenue growth in FY24 and FY25 and measures taken by management to improve productivity should drive margin expansion over our forecast period back into the company’s target range o...

Michael B. Schäfer
  • Michael B. Schäfer

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/30/2024

BHP's bid for Anglo American has confirmed interest from miners in copper in the context of increasingly challenged production and difficulties in fully completing projects. Anglo’s (Neutral) prospects in copper are now better valued and this is also the case for BHP (Neutral vs Underperform) although not so for Rio Tinto (Outperform vs Neutral). Downstream, Nexans and Montana Aerospace are our Top Picks (Outperform) vs Aurubis, Rexel and Prysmian (Neutral). - ...

Michael B. Schäfer
  • Michael B. Schäfer

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 30/04/2024

L’offre de BHP sur Anglo American a confirmé l’intérêt des minières pour le cuivre dans un contexte de tensions croissantes sur la production et de difficultés à faire aboutir les projets. Les perspectives d’Anglo (Neutre) dans le cuivre sont désormais mieux valorisées, c’est aussi le cas de BHP (Neutre vs Sous-performance) mais pas encore assez, selon nous, sur Rio Tinto (Surperformance vs Neutre). En aval, Nexans et Montana Aerospace sont nos valeurs préférées (Surperformance) vs Au...

Louis Boujard ... (+3)
  • Louis Boujard
  • CFA
  • Philippe Ourpatian

Fortum : Good result but significant degradation in hedged position

>Good performance in the Q1 2024… - For the Q1 2024 Comparable EBITDA was € 622m (-20% y-o-y), above our assumptions at € 525m and Vara consensus estimate of € 549m. Comparable operating profit totalled € 530m (-24%) above our forecast and consensus at € 452m. Net income was also better than expected at € 430m (-11%) vs € 350m expected (ODDO BHF and consensus). In spite of lower prices, the drop in earnings was more limited than anticipated in the generation business ...

Louis Boujard ... (+3)
  • Louis Boujard
  • CFA
  • Philippe Ourpatian

Fortum : Good result but significant degradation in hedged position

>Good performance in the Q1 2024… - For the Q1 2024 Comparable EBITDA was € 622m (-20% y-o-y), above our assumptions at € 525m and Vara consensus estimate of € 549m. Comparable operating profit totalled € 530m (-24%) above our forecast and consensus at € 452m. Net income was also better than expected at € 430m (-11%) vs € 350m expected (ODDO BHF and consensus). In spite of lower prices, the drop in earnings was more limited than anticipated in the generation business ...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 26/04/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$1.00 per share: Important step to unlock Sicily – The Italian ministry has informed ADX that it will be granted the d 363C.R-.AX gas exploration permit in the Sicily Channel. In addition, the Regional Administrative Court of Rome has annulled the Plan for the Sustainable Energy Transition of Eligible Areas that prevented the oil redevelopment, appraisal and exploration activities on the licence. ...

Ahmed Ben Salem
  • Ahmed Ben Salem

Repsol : Results beat forecasts but FCF weakened – Reassuring comments...

>Q1 results 6.4% above forecasts - Q1 adjusted net profit came to € 1.27bn (+6% QoQ /-33% YoY), 6.4% above the consensus (ODDO BHF: € 1.07bn; consensus: € 1.19bn), thanks to E&P and Industrial. E&P: the drop in the gap price took a tool - E&P posted an adjusted profit of € 442m, down 20%, whereas the Brent price was near-stable. This is because natural gas makes up two-thirds of the group’s production (590kboe/d) and is mainly produced in North Americ...

Research Department
  • Research Department

IBERIAN DAILY 26 APRIL + 1Q'24 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEW...

NEWS SUMMARY: ACCIONA, ACCIONA ENERGÍA, CAF, CELLNEX, FERROVIAL, IBERDROLA, ROVI. At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 1Q’24 results to be released over the coming days in Spain. Results and macro data drag down stock markets After three straight days of gains, the business results and the macro data in the US led to stock market losses on both sides of the Atlanti...

Ahmed Ben Salem
  • Ahmed Ben Salem

Repsol : Résultat supérieur aux attentes mais baisse du FCF – Le group...

>Résultats T1 6.4% supérieurs aux attentes - Le résultat net ajusté du T1 s'est établi à 1267 M€ (+6% QoQ /-33% YoY) et 6.4% au-dessus du consensus (ODDO BHF: 1 067 M€ ; consensus : 1 191 M€), grâce à l’E&P et Industrial. E&P : la baisse du prix du gaz a pesé - Le résultat de l’E&P ressort à 442 M€, en baisse de 20% alors le brent est quasi-stable. En effet, la production du groupe (590 kbep/j) est dominée à hauteur des deux tiers par le gaz natur...

Research Department
  • Research Department

INFORME DIARIO 26 ABRIL + RDOS. ESPAÑA Y EUROPA 1T’24. IDEAS DESTACADA...

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: ACCIONA, ACCIONA ENERGÍA, CAF, CELLNEX, IBERDROLA, FERROVIAL, ROVI. EUROPA: AIRBUS, DEUTSCHE TELEKOM, SAFRAN, VINCI. Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y previews de Rdos. 1T’24 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días. Los resultados y la macro lastran las bolsas Tras tres días de ganancias, los r...

Charlotte Vaisse ... (+5)
  • Charlotte Vaisse
  • Emmanuel Matot
  • Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
  • Konrad Zomer
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/25/2024

Having flirted with the 495-point mark on Friday, which could have triggered an extension of the correction, the market has rebounded well since then. Our technical analysis highlights a configuration in which we are only at the start of a powerful rally. Target of 622 points for Stoxx 600 index (+11%) by the end of the year confirmed. Prefer banks to insurance companies in the short term. - ...

Charlotte Vaisse ... (+4)
  • Charlotte Vaisse
  • Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
  • Luis de Toledo Heras
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 04/25/2024

Having flirted with the 495-point mark on Friday, which could have triggered an extension of the correction, the market has rebounded well since then. Our technical analysis highlights a configuration in which we are only at the start of a powerful rally. Target of 622 points for Stoxx 600 index (+11%) by the end of the year confirmed. Prefer banks to insurance companies in the short term. - ...

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