Wedbush Morning Call - Nov 21 2024 7:10AM

Polaris Release Timing Remains Uncertain; PT to PLN 160

WOOD Daily: EAT PW; EUR PW; CBF PW; MBR PW; ALE PW; VRC PW; TEN PW; PK...

HEADLINES: • AmRest: 3Q24 in line, on a EUR 9m positive one-off NEGATIVE • Eurocash: 3Q24 weak, as expected; FY25E guidance cancelled NEGATIVE • cyber_Folks: 3Q24 results review – 26% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth, 2% above our estimate POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: 3Q24 EBITDA up 26% yoy, 22-28% above our and the market's expectations POSITIVE • Allegro: 3Q24 EBITDA beat, but yoy decline guided for 4Q24E, due to international operations NEUTRAL • Vercom: 3Q24 results - 28% yoy EBITDA growth, in line with ou...

WOOD Daily: PEO PW; PKO PW; WIZZ LN; BVB RO; TBCG LN; CTPNV NA; AIRA L...

HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: posts strong 3Q24; one of the cheapest among the Polish banks, but remains hostage to merger risk • PKO BP: 3Q24 results – no major surprises • Wizz Air: 2Q FY25 – small miss, with better fuel, but higher ex-fuel cask than we expected NEUTRAL • Bucharest Stock Exchange: weak 3Q24 results NEGATIVE • TBC Bank: 3Q24 results and conference call POSITIVE • CTP: 3Q24 in line; development-led growth continues NEUTRAL • Air Astana Group: 3Q24 EBITDA up by 10% yoy, exceeding the ...

WOOD Daily: OTKAR TI; TPEIR GA; BRISA TI; ELM AB; JAHEZ AB; ALK MS; EM...

HEADLINES: • Otokar: weak set of 3Q24 results NEGATIVE • Piraeus Financial Holdings: 3Q24 highlights – decent quarter, with revised guidance POSITIVE • Brisa: profitability should return in 4Q, on October price hikes NEUTRAL • Elm: strong 3Q24 financial results POSITIVE • Jahez: strong 3Q24 results POSITIVE • Alkaloid AD Skopje: strong 3Q24 sales and a qoq margin rebound POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (28 October-3 November) • Magyar Telekom: reaches agreement with the trade uni...

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: only the Czech Republic in the bla...

EME Equity Market – October 2024 A red October for the EME indices, only Czechia in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 6.0% in EUR terms and 8.4% in USD terms in October. The Czech PX index was the only one spared, adding 1.3% mom in EUR terms. Türkiye was battered the most, with the Turkish ISE30 declining by 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed closely by the Polish WIG20 (-6.7% mom in EUR terms). Greece fell 4.8% mom in EUR terms, while the Hungarian BUX index lost 2.7% mom i...

WOOD Daily: ACP PW; EME Macro/Strategy Weekly; GE Macro; ARCLK TI; SOL...

HEADLINES: • Asseco Poland: profitability rebound slower than expected (downgraded to HOLD) • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (21-27 October) • Georgia macro: early takes following the parliamentary election • Arcelik: weak set of results in 3Q24 NEGATIVE • Solutions by STC: 3Q24 results NEGATIVE • Budimex: 3Q24 EBIT marginally above our and the market's expectations NEUTRAL • Cimsa: 3Q24 conference call takeaways • PKO BP: three of four largest minority shareholders act jointly to call EGM...

PSA Media & Entertainment: Video Games Round-Up

It has been a busy week for bean counters in the video games industry, with the release of global console sales data for September, US software and hardware markets for September, and weekly software sales for UK, Japan and Steam. These figures seem to paint a similar picture: hardware sales are bad, though not as bad as over the summer, while software sales are okay. Pelham Smithers elaborates.

WOOD Flash – PKO BP: 2024-27E strategic targets

PKO BP has published its 2024-27E strategic targets, communicating a minimum 2027E ROE target of 18%. Management has also committed to dividend payments/buybacks. The strategy is based on seven business pillars, many of them targeting market share increases. The current strategic KPIs are just a notch above our current financial forecasts for PKO BP and, thus, we see some minor upside risk for our current medium-term forecasts for the bank. We note that our current explicit forecasts reach out o...

WOOD Daily: FTSHP CP; PL Macro; SAR GA; HU Macro; PKO PW; WPL PW; MYTI...

HEADLINES: • Footshop (FTSHP CP): a sneakerhead’s dream – soft coverage (NOT RATED) • Poland macro: weaker consumption boosts prospects for early rate cuts • Sarantis: 3Q trading update in line, FY24E guidance maintained NEUTRAL • Hungary macro: MNB signals a longer pause • PKO BP: CEO Midera gives the gist of key strategic directions in Puls Biznesu interview NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: Wakacje.pl and Itaka extend cooperation NEUTRAL • Metlen Energy & Metals: 9M24 trading update preview (due ou...

WOOD Daily: EMEA Airlines; LPP PW; GEV CP; EME Macro/Strategy Weekly; ...

HEADLINES: • EMEA airlines: 3Q24 traffic, margin descent underway • LPP: regulator initiates proceedings against the company, on the miscommunication of the departure from Russia NEGATIVE • GEVORKYAN: successfully issues EUR 7.5m from the second tranche of its green bond NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (14-20 October) • Sarantis: 3Q24 trading update preview (due on 23 October) • Budimex: 3Q24E EBITDA flat yoy (due on 28 October) • PKO BP: 3Q24E preview (due on 7 November) • OTP Ba...

WOOD Daily: ASELS TI; KTY PW; KAP LI; SHO PW; MIL PW; BHW PW; VRC PW; ...

HEADLINES: • Aselsan: 3Q24 results – top-down small beat POSITIVE • Kety: wants to increase its share in the French market NEUTRAL • Kazatomprom: EGM announced to ratify a Chinese contract NEUTRAL • Shoper: 24% yoy growth expected in 3Q24E adjusted EBITDA (due on 24 October) • Bank Millennium: 3Q24E preview (due on 29 October) • Bank Handlowy: 3Q24E preview (due on 13 November) • Vercom: 3Q24E results preview – 29% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth (due on 13 November) • CD Projekt: 3Q24E EBITDA up 35%...

WOOD Daily: EME Macro/Strategy Weekly; PKO PW; EAT PW; SFG RO; ALR PW;...

HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (7-13 October) • PKO BP: PLN 994m of CHF mortgage saga provisions in 3Q24E NEUTRAL • AmRest/Sphera Group: Wendy’s entering CEE NEGATIVE • Alior Bank: 3Q24E preview (due on 24 October) • MONETA Money Bank: 3Q24E preview (due on 24 October) • Santander Bank Polska: 3Q24E preview (due on 29 October) • Komercni Banka: 3Q24E preview (due on 31 October)

WOOD Daily: TL Food Retailers; AIRA LI; CZ Macro; HU Macro; APR PW; CA...

HEADLINES: • Turkish Food Retailers: entering a new era (BIM and Migros stay BUY, Sok Marketler downgraded to HOLD) • Air Astana Group: margins attracting rivals (downgraded to HOLD) • Czech Republic macro: September inflation rises as food inflation reaccelerates • Hungary macro: September inflation slows slightly more than expected • Auto Partner: September sales growth decelerates further, to a limited 5% yoy NEGATIVE • Inter Cars: September sales growth slows down to 5% yoy, below our expect...

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Greece rebounds, elsewhere mostly ...

EME Equity Market - September 2024 EME indices mostly in the red in September; rebound in Greece. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 2.0% in EUR terms and 1.1% in USD terms in September. The Greek ASE Index was the best performer in our region, advancing 1.4% mom in EUR terms. Muted performances were seen in Czechia and Hungary (+0.3% and +0.2% mom, respectively in EUR terms), with declines in Poland, Romania and Turkey (-3.6%, -2.9% and -1.5% mom, respectively in EUR terms).

WOOD Daily: LAMDA GA; CZG CP; PKN PW; VGO PW; KMGZ KZ; PCO PW

HEADLINES: • Lamda Development: 2Q24 – good sales at the Ellinikon, capex to accelerate NEUTRAL • Colt CZ Group SE: 1H24 results – better than expected POSITIVE • Orlen: discussing possible deals for Grupa Azoty’s polyolefins business NEUTRAL • VIGO Photonics: signs a conditional agreement with the EIB for the financing of the HyperPIC project NEUTRAL • KazMunayGas: begins construction of a polyethylene complex NEUTRAL • Pepco Group: 4Q24E trading update preview (due on 26 September)

CEE bank bonds/Outperforming with a good case for more

The lower supply pressure and turning interest rate cycle have helped CEE bank bonds outperform this year, particularly in the unsecured segment. The relative value metrics of CEE bank bonds remain enticing though versus European comparables, from a bank fundamental and instrument rating angle. We expect to see a further outperformance of CEE names.

WOOD Daily: CDR PW; 11B PW; MOL HB; ALE PW

HEADLINES: • CD Projekt: expensive after the rally (downgraded to SELL) • 11 bit studios: interview with CEO – “very satisfied” with Frostpunk 2 pre-orders POSITIVE • MOL: secures new agreements for crude supply via Druzhba POSITIVE • Allegro: 2Q24E results preview – 28% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 19 September) • Short News (CEZ)

CD Projekt: expensive after the rally (downgraded to SELL)

We have downgraded CD Projekt (CDR) to SELL (from Hold), on valuation grounds. We have revised up our 12M price target (PT) to PLN 157 (from PLN 120), mostly to reflect our increased price point assumption for AAA games in the mid-term, corresponding with rising games’ development budgets. We also implement slightly more optimistic assumptions for the back-catalogue sales and the Cyberpunk sequel (Orion) sales volumes. At the same time, we note that CDR’s share price has rallied by 50% since our...

WOOD Daily: DUNAHOUS HB; EME Macro/Strategy Weekly; HUG PW; APR PW; CD...

HEADLINES: • Duna House: loan ranger, with dividends to boot (BUY) • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (2-8 September) • Huuuge Games: 2Q24 earnings call takeaways NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: August sales growth decelerates to just 7% yoy NEGATIVE • CD Projekt: class action lawsuit in the US regarding technical solutions used by GOG NEUTRAL • PCF Group: termination of credit facilities at Bank Pekao NEUTRAL • DIGI Communications: delivers first part of FTTH network in Spain NEUTRAL