Benelux Morning Notes

ASR: Buyout deal, second in as many months, similar size (€660m). Flow Traders: Sticky digits. IMCD: Small but solid acquisition in India. Randstad: Preliminary preview of 2Q25F results due 23 July. UCB: Fintepla meets primary endpoint in CDKL5 Deficiency Disorder

Morning Notes : AKZA NA, DSFIR NA, ONTEXb BB, UCB BB, IMCD NA

: AKZA NA, DSFIR NA, ONTEXb BB, UCB BB, IMCD NA

UCB FIRST LOOK: Fintepla scores Phase 3 win in third epileptic indicat...

UCB announced positive Phase 3 results for Fintepla in treating CDKL5 deficiency disorder (CDD), a rare and severe early-onset epileptic condition with limited treatment options. The randomized, placebo-controlled study in patients aged 1–35 met its primary and secondary endpoints, showing a significant reduction in countable motor seizures and a favourable safety profile. UCB plans to announce the full dataset at an upcoming conference and seek regulatory approval promptly. This marks Fintepla'...

Director's Cut: More Sanguine on Near-Term Market Outlook

UCB - Bimzelx Consensus for 2025 Too Low

We are 28% above cons. US Bimzelx sales for H125 with Bimzelx sales momentum being the most important factor for the UCB investment thesis. Unlike the early days for US obesity, this is one of the most complex dynamics we have contended with when forecasting sales. There are multiple unknowns that we have sought to model (net price per scrip, net avg. price by indication, 2024 volume, volume growth by payer & incremental discounts to unlock that volume growth). As a result of our analysis, we in...

Introducing "Director's Cut" -- Full Report Included

Wedbush Morning Call - Jun 18 2025 7:07AM

Benelux Morning Notes

Belgian telecoms: Orange Belgium's new B2B offensive. BE Semiconductor Industries: Investor Day highlights. Proximus: Sale of Be-Mobile, asset disposals upped from ‘>€500m' to ‘up to €600m'. UCB: To invest in a new US manufacturing site

Morning Notes : AGFB BB, BPOST BB, GLPG NA, PROX BB, UCB BB, MAAT FP

: AGFB BB, BPOST BB, GLPG NA, PROX BB, UCB BB, MAAT FP

Dollar Weakness The impact on our Benelux Coverage

In general, a weaker USD has a negative impact on Benelux stocks, particularly for companies with significant exports to the US. In this note we selected a list of companies with high US export exposure and we examine the potential impact on FY25 earninings. On top of the weak dollar, rising trade tensions or the introduction of tariffs further harm Benelux exporters. As the dollar depreciates against the euro, European goods become costlier for American consumers. At the same time, revenues ear...

UCB FIRST LOOK: Expansion of US biologics manufacturing capacity

UCB has announced plans to build a new state-of-the-art biologics manufacturing facility in the US, which today accounts for 55% of its revenues. The investment, estimated at $ 2bn over 6–7 years, is expected to generate a $ 5bn economic impact, including 300 permanent and > 500 construction jobs. This move aligns UCB with other major pharma players expanding US operations and may help mitigate risks from potential US import tariffs on pharmaceuticals. Additionally, UCB will strengthen its partn...

Wedbush Morning Call - Jun 12 2025 6:59AM

Morning Notes : BESI NA, EVS BB, UCB BB, AUTL US

: BESI NA, EVS BB, UCB BB, AUTL US

KOL Call Takeaways: HS A Significant Market; Differentiation Helps

UCB FIRS LOOK: Add'l Phase 3 data support dapirolizumab's potential in...

UCB and Biogen presented additional Phase 3 data showing that dapirolizumab pegol (DZP, anti-CD40L) significantly improves fatigue and disease activity in patients with moderate-to-severe systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Beyond the positive topline readout in Nov '24, DZP showed superior results over standard care in multiple fatigue and disease remission measures. Accumulate/€214 TP confirmed.

UCB 3-year PsA and axSpA data at EULAR 2025 confirm Bimzelx' efficacy

At EULAR 2025, UCB presented three-year data for Bimzelx, demonstrating sustained efficacy and inflammation control in psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA). In PsA, both biologic-naïve (53.2%) and TNFa-refractory patients (55.2%) maintained strong ACR50 responses and showed high rates of joint and skin symptom resolution. In axSpA, patients with both radiographic and non-radiographic forms sustained ASAS40 responses and low disease activity. These results highlight Bimze...

KOL Call Today: Biologics for Hidradenitis Suppurativa — Now and the F...

Morning Notes : ARGX BB, CPINVb BB, UCB BB, BTLS BB

: ARGX BB, CPINVb BB, UCB BB, BTLS BB

UCB - “Bim’ Me Up Scotty” – INITIATION (BUY, TP EUR215, 54pgs)

We initiate with a BUY due to our proprietary Contribution Analysis showing that the UCB EBITDA margin should explode by ~1500bps to ~45% by 2030. This leaves us 23% above consensus EBITDA. Interestingly, Cimzia is the biggest driver of our 5% above cons. 2030 sales as a result of our analysis showing that ~80% of TRx’s are women & this cohort is stable. We show that Bimzelx pricing could fall as much as 30% by 2030 due to rebates & mix but we are still in-line with consensus. There are still ma...