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Emira Sagaama ... (+3)
  • Emira Sagaama
  • Hela Zarrouk
  • Oliver Metzger
Konrad Zomer
  • Konrad Zomer
Emira Sagaama ... (+3)
  • Emira Sagaama
  • Hela Zarrouk
  • Oliver Metzger
Konrad Zomer
  • Konrad Zomer
Oleg Galbur
  • Oleg Galbur

MOL : New risk assumptions on Russian pipeline oil supply drive 20% ta...

The intensification of EU rhetoric regarding the need for a complete decoupling from Russian oil and gas, the increasing frequency of Ukrainian attacks on Druzhba oil pipeline infrastructure and the availability of an alternative route for the supply of non-Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia have led us to adopt a new base-case scenario for MOL's valuation. Assuming a full halt to Russian oil supply from 2028, we estimate a negative impact of >$ 0.6bn on MOL’s EBITDA, which leads to a 20% reduc...

Mihaly Gajda
  • Mihaly Gajda

Model Update

We have updated our financial model to reflect recent macroeconomic developments, setting a 2026 year-end ex-dividend target price of 3,330 HUF, representing a 20.5% upside (14.1% CAGR) including the anticipated HUF 283 dividend following the 2025 fiscal year. Consequently, we maintain our Accumulate recommendation for MOL.

Mihaly Gajda
  • Mihaly Gajda

BME one-off drags headline results, core MOL segments deliver

The company has delivered USD 685 mn clean CCS EBITDA missing the consensus, but only due to a USD 98 mn one-off related to BME acquisition. Core segment delivered on expectations at the EBITDA level. EBIT and profit miss were strengthened by higher than expected depreciation and strongly negative CCS effect. These are non-cash items and only the increased depreciation is recurring.

MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas: 1 director

A director at MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas sold 28,000 shares at 3,004.000HUF and the significance rating of the trade was 66/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ...

Mihaly Gajda
  • Mihaly Gajda

MOL beats consensus on unusually strong Q1 refined product sales

The company outperformed market consensus across all key metrics—USD 833 mn clean EBITDA, USD 495 mn EBIT, and USD 393 mn net profit—the surprise is mainly driven by an unusual 15% YoY increase in Downstream sales and consolidation effects. Upstream also surprised positively due to lower exploration spending and limited royalty impact. Other segments had lower but also positive surprise.

Chaima Ferrandon ... (+3)
  • Chaima Ferrandon
  • Christian Arnold
  • Sven Edelfelt
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