GREATER CHINA Sector Consumer Dragon Boat Festival: Consumer services, experiential spending, and lower-tier cities lead growth. INDONESIA Update Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ/HOLD/Rp4,300/Target: Rp4,300) Issuance of new shares to complete the divestment process. MALAYSIA Sector Telecommunications 1Q24 earnings up 14% yoy on the back ...
Due to the transfer of coverage and the recent developments, we revisited our estimatesfor DIGI. We reiterate our Buy recommendation with a 12-m ex-div TP of RON 84, implyinga 26% upside potential. DIGI trades at P/E of 15.0x and EV/EBITDA of 4.8x, based on ourestimates, implying that the stock is valued at a premium compared to its peers.DIGI aims to provide superior communication services to a large customer base at the mostaffordable prices, offering ‘Pay TV’, ‘Fixed Telephony’, ‘Mobile Telep...
EME Equity Market – May 2024 Turkish equities lead, in the mostly green month of May. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.8% mom in LCU terms in May. The Turkish ISE30 index reported the strongest performance, adding 3.6% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Czech PX (+2.7% and 2.1% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Hungarian BUX index and the Polish WIG20 remained broadly flat (+0.4% and +0.2% mom in EUR terms, respectively); although, in LCU terms,...
HEADLINES: • Sphera Group: out of the shadows (stays BUY) • PCF Group: 1Q24 EBITDA above our and the market's expectations, driven by self-publishing POSITIVE • Asseco Poland: 1Q24 review – net profit up 16% yoy, 10% the above consensus POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: 1Q24 adjusted EBITDA as expected NEUTRAL • Echo Investment: 1Q24 – benign margin environment continuing for Polish homebuilders NEUTRAL • GTC: 1Q24 in line, management recommends PLN 0.22 DPS NEGATIVE • PGE: 1Q24 earnings in line with...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: strong 1Q24, but May card base estimate disappoints POSITIVE • Magyar Telekom: 1Q24E results review – EBITDA up 46% yoy, 6% above the consensus; 2024E guidance upgraded POSITIVE • Patria Bank: strong bottom-line print in 1Q24, but loan book development remains absent POSITIVE • GEVORKYAN: 1Q24 EBITDA up 24% yoy, 17% above our estimate POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: 1Q24 EBITDA 5% above our forecast, 6% miss vs. the consensus NEUTRAL • DataWalk: 1Q24 numbers fully in line with ...
Digi has reported a solid set of Q1 numbers vs expectations: Both SR and EBITDA growth rates are slower, but remain impressive. A launch in Portugal has been pushed back to H2 (same timing as for Belgium) and no further details were given on the launch particulars. We remain unconvinced that Digi can build NPV positive businesses in either market, but we think it will launch in both, with all the associated costs– indeed, Digi upped capex guidance for 2024 to €650m-€700m from €650m. This drag to...
HEADLINES: • InPost: strong 1Q24, as expected; FY24E guidance maintained; slight volume deceleration in 2Q24 so far POSITIVE • Graphisoft Park: 1Q24 – occupancy and results stable so far; guidance maintained POSITIVE • Sphera Group: 1Q24 above our expectations POSITIVE • Hidroelectrica: 1Q24 – lower power prices offset by no tax on producers NEGATIVE • DIGI Communications: 1Q24 results – adjusted EBITDA up 22% yoy, 6% above our estimate POSITIVE • AROBS Transilvania Software: weak 1Q24 results, ...
HEADLINES: • mBank: solid 1Q24 results justify one of the top market valuations (1Q24 P/BV of 2.1x) POSITIVE • OTP Bank: books solid 1Q24, keeps 2024E guidance unchanged NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: 1Q24 results in line • CCC: 40% EBITDA beat in 1Q24, on opex control POSITIVE • Dino: 2-7% EBITDA miss in 1Q24 NEGATIVE • AmRest: 1Q24 broadly in line with our forecasts, but below the consensus NEGATIVE • MOL: 1Q24 results – EBITDA below expectations on maintenance NEUTRAL • MedLife: 1Q24 results poin...
HEADLINES: • Budimex: 1Q24 EBIT 13% above our forecast on solid gross margin, but broadly in line with the consensus POSITIVE • European oil and gas monthly: April 2024 – margins retreating • Bank Handlowy: to pay PLN 10/share dividend NEUTRAL • PKO BP: estimates cost of credit holidays extension at PLN 489m NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: expects a PLN 201-247m impact from the 2024E credit holidays extension for PLN mortgagors NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: April sales recover by 19.5% yoy POSITIVE • MOL: 1Q...
EME Equity Market – April 2024 Market performance – green across all geographies, with Turkey outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index was up 5.3% mom in EUR terms and 4.2% mom in USD in April; while the Turkish ISE30 saw the strongest performance, adding 11.6% mom; followed by the Hungarian BUX (+5.0% mom); the Czech PX (+2.8% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Polish WIG20 (+1.2% mom) and the Romanian BET (+0.1% mom) (all in EUR terms).
GREATER CHINA Sector Online Travel Agencies: Robust Qingming festival travel momentum continues into Labour Day. Results Dian Diagnostics (300244 CH/BUY/Rmb14.36/Target: Rmb18.50): 2023: Results in line; smooth progress in developing esoteric testing business. EVE Energy (300014 CH/SELL/Rmb35.00/Target: Rmb20.00): 4Q23: Earnings miss on margins. Maintain SELL. Cut target price from Rmb24.00 to Rmb20.00. Huizhou Desay SV Automotive Co (002920 CH/BUY/Rmb118.01/Target: Rmb145.00): 1Q24: Earnings mi...
A director at Digi Communications NV sold 35,000 shares at 54.209RON and the significance rating of the trade was 56/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years ...
HEADLINES: • Budimex: stands out, but deserves a pause (downgraded to HOLD) • CCC: 4Q23 slightly below prelims; sales acceleration and gross margin widening in 1Q24E POSITIVE • PGE: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Hungary macro: the rise of the “Peter Magyar” phenomenon • Poland macro: local elections and NBP decision show continuity • Budimex: UOHS cancels decision on choosing BDX's offer for the D11 highway NEGATIVE • Budimex: potential new contract in road construction (PLN 0...
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • CD Projekt: 13% beat vs. our 4Q23 EBITDA forecast, on stronger revenues (CP77 IP) POSITIVE • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: mixed 4Q23 results NEUTRAL • Cimsa: 2023 financial results review • Tauron: reports 4Q23 EBITDA of PLN 674m , 44% lower qoq, but 83% higher yoy NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Romanian energy: government adopts emergency ordinance, with amended regulations for the energy sector NEUTRAL • Bank of Georgia: receives app...
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
Digi has reported good Q4 numbers: SR has slowed, but EBITDA has accelerated nicely to +33.1% y/y from +24.1% y/y in Q3 driven by Spain. Management was careful not to give away too much information on the call, but did confirm that it will launch in 2024 in both Portugal and Belgium, and that it will offer both fixed and mobile in both countries, on its own network in both. It remains to be seen how it will actually achieve that.
HEADLINES: • Polish Auto Parts Distribution: sound recurrent growth prospects (Auto Partner downgraded to HOLD; Inter Cars stays BUY) • Kruk: 4Q23/2023 results – solid, but in line NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: books solid 2023, issues positive guidance on 2024E COR, and pays dividend one year earlier than expected POSITIVE • Romgaz: FY23 net profit 12% above profit reported with 2024E budget POSITIVE • Transelectrica: FY23 net result slightly below preliminary reported with 2024 budget NEUTRAL • KazMun...
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