reports
- Anastasia Khakhaeva
- Andrey Gromadin
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Cole Akeson
- Dmitry Troshin
- Ekaterina Usanova
- Fedor Kornachev
- Georgiy Ivanin
- Konstantin Samarin
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - March 9, 2022
MARKET COMMENT - MOSCOW TRADING REMAINS HALTED WHILE EYES REMAIN ON UKRAINERussian stocks continued to see only slight trading through Russia's long weekend. That will not change today, with the CBR having decided yesterday not to allow Moscow equity trading, continuing the halt since February 25 for a sixth business day.STORIES> How the crisis is evolving> US and UK seeking to embargo Russian oil and gas imports> Gazprom's export flows remain very strong> Rostelecom posts neutral 4Q21 IFRS resu...
- Anastasia Khakhaeva
- Andrey Gromadin
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Cole Akeson
- Dmitry Troshin
- Ekaterina Usanova
- Fedor Kornachev
- Georgiy Ivanin
- Konstantin Samarin
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - 9 марта 2022
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗСША и Великобритания вводят эмбарго на импорт нефти и газа из России, экспортные доходы Газпрома растут, Ростелеком, HeadHunter, Магнит и М. Видео представили отчетность.НОВОСТИ> Как развивается кризис> США и Великобритания вводят эмбарго на импорт нефти и газа из России> Экспортные доходы Газпрома растут> Ростелеком представил нейтральные результаты за 4К21 по МСФО> Вопрос о погашении облигаций Яндекса и Ozon> HeadHunter: результаты за 4К21 несколько ниже прогнозов, выкуп а...
- Andrey Gromadin
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Cole Akeson
- Dmitry Troshin
- Ekaterina Usanova
- Georgiy Ivanin
- Konstantin Samarin
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - January 27, 2022
MARKET COMMENT - HAWKISH FED, MIXED POLITICAL NEWS LEAVE TODAY'S OUTLOOK WEAKThe RTS climbed 2.1% to 1,324, one of the best EM performances. However, global and Russian markets look weaker today after the Fed's expectedly hawkish turn. Also in focus will be the Russian government's replies to US and NATO security proposals.STORIES> Looking further ahead after Normandy session, US security proposal submission> Weekly inflation remains elevated at 0.2%> Gazprom Neft CEO comments on operational pla...
- Andrey Gromadin
- Anton Chernyshev
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Cole Akeson
- Dmitry Troshin
- Ekaterina Usanova
- Georgiy Ivanin
- Konstantin Samarin
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - 27 января 2022
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - ЖЕСТКАЯ РИТОРИКА ФРС И НЕОДНОЗНАЧНЫЕ ПОЛИТИЧЕСКИЕ НОВОСТИ СЕГОДНЯ МОГУТ ОКАЗАТЬ ДАВЛЕНИЕ НА РЫНОКИндекс РТС вчера вырос на 2,1% до 1 324 пунктов. Россия стала одним лидеров среди развивающихся рынков. Однако сегодня утром глобальный и российский рынки отступают, т. к. риторика ФРС по итогам заседания, как и ожидалась, была жесткой. Сегодня в центре внимания будет ответ российских властей на предложения США и НАТО по вопросам безопасности. НОВОСТИ> Недельная инфляция в РФ ...
- Evgeniy Kipnis
M.Video: 4Q21 trading update – Neutral
M.Video (MVID RX: N/R) reported a 4Q21 trading update. 4Q21 GMV grew 8.1% y/y, accelerating vs 2.0% in 3Q21 (which was affected by the relatively high base of 3Q20), despite Covid-related restrictions in some regions. As a result, 2021 GMV grew 13.1% y/y, which is slightly lower than the 15% GMV CAGR 2021-25F set in the strategic plan and market expectations (13.5% revenue growth according to Bloomberg consensus). Overall, we treat the results as expectedly soft in light of the pandemic outbr...
- Cole Akeson
- Ekaterina Usanova
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - January 18, 2022
MARKET COMMENT - SWIFT RELIEF PROVES SHORT-LIVED ON CONSULATE EVACUATION CLAIMSThe RTS sank 0.7% to 1,475, its lowest level since last April. The market continues to ignore oil reaching its highest levels since the 2014 crisis. Relief from media reports that the EU and US have decided not to pursue excluding Russia from SWIFT proved temporary, as futures and other Russia indicators are underperforming early this morning following media reports that staff have been evacuated from Russia's diploma...
- Anton Chernyshev
- Cole Akeson
- Ekaterina Usanova
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - 18 января 2022
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - НОВОСТИ О ТОМ, ЧТО РОССИЮ НЕ ОТКЛЮЧАТ ОТ SWIFT, ОКАЗАЛИ РЫНКУ ЛИШЬ КРАТКОВРЕМЕННУЮ ПОДДЕРЖКУИндекс РТС вчера упал на 0,7% до 1 475 пунктов, минимума с апреля 2021 года. Рынок продолжает игнорировать то, что цены на нефть достигли самых высоких уровней со времени кризиса 2014 года. Сообщения СМИ о том, что ЕС и США отказались от идеи отключить Россию от системы SWIFT, оказали рынку акций лишь кратковременную поддержку. Сегодня фьючерсы и другие утренние индикаторы для росс...
- Andrew Keeley
- Andrey Kuznetsov
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Arthur Cherkesov
- Cole Akeson
- Lyudmila Melnikova
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Research Team
- Sergey Donskoy
CIS Market Daily - October 22, 2021
MARKET COMMENT - RUSSIA, EMS STEP BACK BEFORE TODAY'S CBR DECISIONThe MSCI EM declined 0.6% and RTS (1,868) 1.9% as oil and other risk assets saw declines before US data and stock gains pushed sentiment a bit more bullish. Global indicators are flat and Russia indicators a touch bullish this morning, but markets appear to lack a clear catalyst at present. Also worth noting but with limited market implications are yesterday's remarks from the president on international relations and a series of n...
- Andrew Keeley
- Andrey Kuznetsov
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Arthur Cherkesov
- Cole Akeson
- Lyudmila Melnikova
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - August 19, 2021
MARKET COMMENT - US TEMPTING A TAPER TANTRUM; RUSSIAN RESULTS, MSCI IN FOCUSA mixed early part of the day gave way to notable declines after the Fed minutes revealed the FOMC is more ready to taper asset purchases than some investors may have expected. The dollar has risen and stock and commodity prices have fallen since then, and the outlook remains weak this morning. Results from six companies, possible MSCI 10-40 shifts and US jobless claims are also on today's agenda. STORIES> Weekly inflati...
- Evgeniy Kipnis
M.Video: 1H21 IFRS results – Neutral-to-positive
M.Video (MVID RX: N/R) reported its 1H21 IFRS financials. Adj.EBITDA trends was soft in 1H21 - 8% decline y/y with margin of 5.8% - mainly driven by normalization on gross margin level (which reflects the changing product mix, ongoing supply shortage in certain appliance categories and growing competition on the market). Still, that is in line with market expectations and company’s medium-term guidance. At the same time, there were several positive one-offs in 1H21, such as sale of Goods.ru, ...
- Anastasia Khakhaeva
- Andrew Keeley
- Fedor Kornachev
- Igor Vasilyev
- Lyudmila Melnikova
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
SberCIB Ivanov Consumer Confidence Tracker. July 2021 - More Optimisti...
We continue to track the Ivanovs' savings and spending patterns, as well as their perceptions, to get an idea of how entire sectors and individual companies are performing and might perform in the future. We also look at competition among public retailers. The main conclusions from our most recent survey are as follows:> Consumer confidence improved to -17% in 2Q21 from -19% in 1Q21. The fieldwork for this survey took place mainly over June, when Covid cases were on the rise but were not critica...
QIWI QIWI PLC SPONSORED ADR CLASS B
OKEY O KEY GROUP
AFLT AEROFLOT RUSSIAN AIRLINES
MGNT MAGNIT PJSC
LNTA LENTA INTERNATIONAL PJSC
PJP X5 RETAIL GROUP N.V. SPONSORED GDR REGS
MAIL MAIL.RU GROUP LTD. SPONSORED GDR
MVID M VIDEO
2ET ETALON GROUP (GDR)
LSRG LSR GROUP
5M71 MAGNIT PJSC SPONSORED GDR REGS
3LSA LSR GROUP (GDR)
DSKY DETSKY MIR
OZON OZON HOLDINGS
FIXP FIX PRICE GROUP
- Andrey Gromadin
- Andrey Kuznetsov
- Anna Kotelnikova
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Cole Akeson
- Lyudmila Melnikova
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - July 23, 2021
MARKET COMMENT - APAC DOWN ON LOCAL NEWS; RUSSIA, GLOBAL INDICATORS UP BEFORE CBRMarkets trended higher on supportive messaging from the ECB and US data that was neither too hot nor too cold. APAC markets are under pressure from negative reports regarding Chinese tech, but EMEA, US and Russia indicators all lean higher. The CBR meeting is in focus, with our team expecting a 100 bp hike.STORIES> EM inflows decelerated, Russia outflow continued for third week> Industrial production in June effecti...
- Andrey Gromadin
- Andrey Kuznetsov
- Anna Kotelnikova
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Cole Akeson
- Lyudmila Melnikova
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - 23 июля 2021
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - АЗИАТСКИЕ РЫНКИ ПРОСЕЛИ ПОД ВЛИЯНИЕМ РЕГИОНАЛЬНЫХ НОВОСТЕЙ; РОССИЙСКИЕ И ГЛОБАЛЬНЫЕ ИНДИКАТОРЫ РАСТУТ; В РОССИИ ЖДУТ РЕШЕНИЯ ПО СТАВКЕ ЦБНа рынках вчера скорее преобладал оптимизм на фоне заявления ЕЦБ и макростатистики из США, которая оказалась не слишком хорошей и не слишком плохой. Рынки АТР остаются под давлением из-за негативных сообщений о китайских высокотехнологичных компаниях, но индикаторы рынков EMEA, США и России растут. В центре внимания сегодня заседание Бан...
- Evgeniy Kipnis
M.Video: 2Q21 trading update – MODERATELY POSITIVE
M.Video (MVID RX: N/R) reported its 2Q21 trading update. 2Q21 GMV grew 38% y/y, expectedly accelerating vs 14% in 1Q21, on the back of the low base effect of April-May 2020. The growth was also supported by a growing base of active clients, as well as stable demand for consumer electronics (underpinned, among other factors, by growing consumer lending). At the same time, growth is likely to be softer in 3Q21, we think, as in-store customer traffic likely affected by weather anomaly and a spik...
- Anastasia Khakhaeva
- Andrey Gromadin
- Andrey Kuznetsov
- Anna Kotelnikova
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Cole Akeson
- Fedor Kornachev
- Lyudmila Melnikova
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Research Team
- Rodion Lomivorotov
CIS Market Daily - June 16, 2021
MARKET COMMENT - PRESIDENTS' SUMMIT IN FOCUS FOR RUSSIA, FED DECISION FOR GLOBAL MARKETSMost stock markets declined yesterday (MSCI ACWI -0.1%), likely in cautious preparation for today's Fed meeting. The RTS declined 1.3% to 1,665, a result near that of EM EMEA peers. The summit between presidents Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden is in focus today but unlikely to produce material headlines until near or after the close of the Moscow main session, while global markets will be watching the Fed decisi...
- Lyudmila Melnikova
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
M.Video - Upgrading on Inspiring Growth Outlook, Improving Liquidity
We introduce a target price of R800 per share for M.Video and a BUY rating. We forecast a 13% top-line CAGR in 2020-24E and a 10.2% dividend yield in 2021, while the stock trades at a 2021E EV/EBITDA of below 5. We expect the recent placement (the main reason we had the stock UNDER REVIEW) to boost liquidity and think the active online expansion will ease market concerns surrounding the segment and contribute to the stock's re-rate. The plans to double GMV by 2025 are not yet reflected in our fo...
- Lyudmila Melnikova
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
Потребительский индекс Иванова. Май 2021 - Негативные ожидания снижают...
Мы продолжаем изучать динамику и структуру расходов и сбережений Ивановых, а также их восприятие экономической ситуации, чтобы прогнозировать перспективы развития различных секторов российской экономики и отдельных компаний. В этом выпуске мы также анализируем конкуренцию между российскими публичными продуктовыми розничными сетями. Выводы по итогам нашего исследования изложены ниже.> Индекс потребительских настроений, который в четвертом квартале составил минус 26%, в первом квартале восстановил...
OKEY O KEY GROUP
AFLT AEROFLOT RUSSIAN AIRLINES
MGNT MAGNIT PJSC
LNTA LENTA INTERNATIONAL PJSC
PJP X5 RETAIL GROUP N.V. SPONSORED GDR REGS
MAIL MAIL.RU GROUP LTD. SPONSORED GDR
MVID M VIDEO
TCS TCS GROUP HOLDING PLC SPONSORED GDR CLASS A REGS
LSRG LSR GROUP
5M71 MAGNIT PJSC SPONSORED GDR REGS
3LSA LSR GROUP (GDR)
DSKY DETSKY MIR
TCSG TCS GROUP
OZON OZON HOLDINGS
- Alexey Kirichok
- Andrey Gromadin
- Andrey Kuznetsov
- Anna Kotelnikova
- Cole Akeson
- Lyudmila Melnikova
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - 23 апреля 2021
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - РОССИЯ ЗНАЧИТЕЛЬНО ОПЕРЕДИЛА АНАЛОГИ НА ФОНЕ НАДЕЖД НА СНИЖЕНИЕ ГЕОПОЛИТИЧЕСКОЙ НАПРЯЖЕННОСТИИндекс РТС вырос на 2,6% до 1 502 пунктов после сообщений о том, что геополитическая напряженность в регионе снизилась. Динамика глобальных рынков была разнонаправленной, негативным фактором стал спад на американском рынке акций (S&P 500 снизился на 0,9%) после сообщений о возможном повышении налогов. Утренние индикаторы сегодня неоднозначны, нефть и рубль немного выросли в цене о...
- Alexey Kirichok
- Andrey Gromadin
- Andrey Kuznetsov
- Anna Kotelnikova
- Cole Akeson
- Lyudmila Melnikova
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - April 23, 2021
MARKET COMMENT - RUSSIA SHARPLY OUTPERFORMS ON HOPES GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS ARE EASINGThe RTS soared 2.6% to 1,502 following headlines that suggest regional geopolitical tensions are easing. Global markets were more mixed, the US (S&P 500 -0.9%) dragging on performances following news of potential tax hikes. Global markets are mixed this morning, while quotes on the ruble are slightly stronger than at last night's close. STORIES> Oil and gas: Expecting a strong rebound in earnings and FCF in 1Q21...
- Evgeniy Kipnis
M.Video: 1Q21 trading update – NEUTRAL
M.Video (MVID RX: N/R) reported its 1Q21 trading update. 1Q21 sales grew 13.8% y/y, which is solid, especially given the high base of March 2020. At the same time, growth is set to accelerate in 2Q21 – April sales are showing triple-digit growth from a low base, which is supportive for the stock, in our view. The stock is down 18% from the March 2021 peaks on the back of a 13.5% stock placement by Safmar. At current levels, the stock offers a 9.6% annual 2020 dividend yield (of which 5.4% to ...
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