PV sales remained weak during 1-12 April, reflecting the sustained front-loading effect from the roll-back of tax concession, Qingming holiday drag, high oil prices, and purchase delays ahead of Beijing Auto Show new-model debuts. EVs and exports remain bright spots, offsetting domestic ICE-car sales weakness. CPCA projects 13% China’s EV sales growth and 1% yoy overall PV sales growth for 2026, on par with our estimates. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely, BYD and Minth.
Greater China Economics | Economic Activity China’s 1Q26 GDP growth came in at 5.0% yoy (+0.5ppt qoq, -0.4ppt yoy), indicating stabilisation from the 2H25 trough. March data was mixed - industrial production rose 6.1% yoy (-0.2ppt mom), beating expectations, while retail sales slowed to 1.7% yoy and FAI ytd edged down to 1.7% yoy (-0.1ppt mom), both missing consensus estimates. Property FAI ytd remained weak at -11.2% yoy. The surveyed unemployment rate rose to 5.4% (+0.1ppt mom). Overall, d...
In 4Q25, the upstream segments (battery and battery materials) outperformed the mid-stream (auto parts) and downstream (auto OEMs) segments. China’s auto sector profits should have bottomed in 1Q26 and will likely recover along with PV sales from 2Q26 as: a) the front-loading effect is fading, b) local subsidies are coming through, c) OEMs are launching new techs, and d) overseas sales remain buoyant. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely, Minth and Ganfeng Lithium.
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile In 4Q25, the upstream segments (battery and battery materials) outperformed the mid-stream (auto parts) and downstream (auto OEMs) segments. China’s auto sector profits should have bottomed in 1Q26 and will likely recover along with PV sales from 2Q26 as: a) the front-loading effect is fading, b) local subsidies are coming through; c) OEMs are launching new techs; and d) overseas sales remain buoyant. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely, Min...
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the impact of the Middle East conflict on our Asian Coverage Universe. In addition, we review the performance of major Asian credit indices and UST curve movements in March 2026. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of ...
We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 243 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides:
4Q25 net profit came in as expected at Rmb9,286m (-38.2% yoy/+18.7% qoq). We believe BYD’s earnings bottomed out in 4Q25-1Q26, and 2026-28 profit will be driven by new tech launches, overseas expansion and external battery sales. We raise our 2026-27 net profit forecasts by 58%/100% to Rmb45.41b/Rmb56.35b respectively, and introduce our 2028 net profit forecast of Rmb69.64b, implying a 29% three-year CAGR. Upgrade from SELL to BUY; lift target price from HK$81.00 to HK$130.00.
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