reports
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
African & EMEA Telcos & Towers Outlook 2025; Catching back what was l...
The last 2 years have been tough for African Telcos, with strong macro headwinds driving currency weakness and cost pressures. However, we exited 2024 with some signs that trends are inflecting. AAF remains our top pick in Africa as it offers Bharti-style execution at a fraction of the multiple, and VEON our top pick overall.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Themes and Top picks for 2025
We remain constructive on EM Telcos despite the major stocks generally performing well through 2023 and 2024. As the long telco cycle inflects, and the industry consolidates, conditions still seem ripe for GDP+ revenue growth and rising ROIC we think. In this note, we run through the themes we think investors should follow in 2025. In a separate note, also published today we introduce the NSR EM Telco – Top 8, our top EM picks in the Telco and Towers space.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Introducing the NSR Global EM Telco & Tower...
This note introduces the NSR GEM-Top 8, which will be a regularly updated list of our preferred Telcos and Towers in Global Emerging Markets. In a separate note out today, we run through the key themes that we see driving the EM Telco and Towers sector in 2025
- Chris Hoare
Vodacom (Buy, TP: ZAR150, +45%) Feedback from small group call with C...
We hosted a small group Zoom call with Vodacom CEO, Shameel Joosub, Vodacom CFO, Raisibe Morathi and Head of IR, JP Davids earlier this week. As with our previous call with MTN, (feedback HERE) the tone was positive. It would appear we are at an inflection point for telcos both in sub-Saharan Africa, and South Africa, and remain Buyers of Vodacom with a ZAR150 price target. Thoughts and feedback below.
- Chris Hoare
EMEA & African Telcos & Towers - High Yield Review – Initiate Coverage...
Following similar efforts in Europe and LatAm we are launching coverage on the HY Telcos & Towers in EMEA & Africa. New names under coverage include Helios (also initiated on equity, pt GBp140), Axian Telecom and Liquid Intelligent. We also address IHS Towers (pt cut to US$ 6), VEON and Helios’ bonds.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
YPF YPF SA SPONSORED ADR CLASS D
WYNN WYNN RESORTS LIMITED
NYCB NEW YORK COMMUNITY BANCORP INC.
NTCT NETSCOUT SYSTEMS INC.
MRK MERCK & CO. INC.
MGPI MGP INGREDIENTS INC.
KR KROGER CO.
GPRE GREEN PLAINS INC.
GOGO GOGO INC.
FNV. FRANCO-NEVADA CORPORATION
CNK CINEMARK HOLDINGS INC.
BIIB BIOGEN INC.
TKO. TASEKO MINES LIMITED
MDU MDU RESOURCES GROUP INC
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
VODJ VODAFONE GROUP PLC (ADR)
ABBV ABBVIE INC.
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC ADS
A2H5RW ERO COPPER
NABL N-ABLE
WDS INC.
CLB WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LTD
TH CORE LABORATORIES INC
THERATECHNOLOGIES INC.
- Chris Hoare
5G FWA in EM Poor man’s paradise; income and propensity to spend sugg...
This is the 3rd in a series of notes looking at FWA (see HERE and HERE). Like us, the market appears to be getting more bullish on FWA in EM, and a series of events such as Jio’s launch suggest FWA could be a significant use case for 5G in Emerging Markets.
- Chris Hoare
Vodacom (Neutral, TP: ZAR140, +35%) Q2 24: Top line in line, but disa...
Vodacom reported a mixed set of results, service revenue came in in line with consensus but EBITDA and HEPS missed. Revenue trends in SA slightly improved in Q2 vs. Q1 but trends in International slowed. EBITDA trends (on a normalised basis) slowed in H1 24 vs. H2 23 but EBITDA performance is expected to be better next semester.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
South African Telcos CY23 1H review – Growth still resilient but marg...
The environment remained tough for the South African operators in the first half of 2023. Loadshedding was high and impacted revenue (especially voice) and increased opex. Market service revenue was sequentially stable (up 1.6% YoY in H1 23), but EBITDA growth and margins deteriorated as telcos turned to backup batteries and power generators, and additional security solutions.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
Sub-Saharan African Telecoms Fundamentals still strong; slight ARPU ...
Sub-Saharan African (SSA) operators continue to benefit from strong fundamentals. There was a small slowdown in market service revenue growth in Q4 but EBITDA trends were stable and a small reduction in capex intensity translated into an improvement in OpFCF.
- Chris Hoare
Vodacom (Neutral, TP: ZAR150, +20%) Vodafone “exploring its options” ...
Bloomberg reports that Vodafone is “exploring its options” with regard to its 65% stake in Vodacom. We see Vodacom as somewhat (although not hugely) undervalued, with the main obstacle to taking a more positive view being the SA macro situation. There has been much speculation that e& (Etisalat) is interested in this stake. In an earlier note, we also ran through the financial implications for Vodafone of a potential sale.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
New Street: The 5G FWA Opportunity for EM Connecting a billion homes
There are c. 1bn homes that lack broadband globally, the vast majority of which are in Emerging Markets. Broadband today reminds us of mobile in 2000 ahead of the 2G EM bonanza, with penetration high in DM & low in EM and most analysts predicting this to remain the case for many years. But 5G FWA dramatically improves cost to serve, and will likely therefore significantly upscale demand for broadband in EM.
- Chris Hoare
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.