reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Still Riding the Trend Higher; Upgrading Real Estate to Market Weight After discussing our expectations for a bounce in our 10/30/23 ETF Pathfinder with the Russell 2000 (IWM) testing major support at $162-$163, we outlined in our 11/20/23 ETF Pathfinder that we were shifting our outlook to bullish. Market-generated information has continued to be of the risk-on variety, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market. Therefore, we continue to expect a rally into year-...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low. Then, in our November 2, 2023 Int'l Compass, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in the MSCI ACWI (local currency). Finally, we outlined in our November 16, 2023 Int'l Compass our belief that a year-end rally has begun in global equities (MSCI ACWI). Recent developments have...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Testing YTD Lows; 2.5-Yr Commodity Uptrend Breaking In our previous ETF Pathfinder (Sept. 6) we discussed how key supports were being tested at 3900 on the S&P 500, $293-294 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and that breaks below these levels would virtually guarantee a test of the YTD lows -- or worse. Those support levels have broken, and we are now getting a test of the YTD lows. With so many indexes and key Sectors (e.g., Financials, Industrials, Technology) curren...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
tick With Value; Gold Breaking Out As noted in our last ETF Pathfinder (Jan. 31), we remain bearish on the Russell 2000 index (IWM) and Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) as long as they remain below important resistance levels of $208 and $134, respectively. Additionally, we noted our expectation for sideways consolidation on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), but that as long as 4257 and $334 supports hold, respectively, we cannot get too bearish. These levels have held, however we will reiterate t...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Sell In May And Go Away? The weight of the evidence remains positive and we continue to recommend adding exposure on pullbacks. We are entering a seasonally weaker period for the S&P 500 ("sell in May and go away") which could lead to some softness, however that alone is no reason to be bearish and we continue to see pullbacks as buying opportunities. S&P 500. The S&P 500 remains bullish and is in an uptrend, though continues to be extended in the short-term as it hovers near potential resista...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Int'l Insights: Bullish Stocks
Overweight EM vs. EAFE; Dollar Weakness Continues The MSCI EM index (local currency) remains bullish from a price perspective as it breaks above 2-year resistance to new all-time highs; as long as price is above base support near 65,700, we are bullish from a price perspective. Additionally, the MSCI EM vs. EAFE ratio remains in an uptrend -- remain overweight EM relative to EAFE. We continue to attribute much of EM's outperformance to the downtrend in the US dollar (DXY). As long as weaknes...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
S&P 500 Testing Short-Term Support Market dynamics remain positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across the major indexes and all Sectors. As a result we remain bullish and recommend adding exposure on pullbacks. · S&P 500 Levels. We see short-term support on the S&P 500 at 3630-3645. If this area fails to hold, the next important support levels to watch would be 3588 followed by 3550. As long as 3550 holds, we believe a bullish intermediate-term outlook is appropr...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Cautious outlook intact We continue expect additional consolidation, volatility, and potentially lower prices as the market attempts to stabilize. Important levels we are monitoring on the S&P 500 include support near 2,600 and resistance near 2,817 - which currently coincides with both the 100-day and 50-day moving averages. • Big picture trends. The growth (IUSG) vs. value (IUSV) uptrend is breaking down in favor of value -- shift exposure from growth to value. The large-cap (IVV) vs. smal...
XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
IBB ISHARES NASDAQ BIOTECHNOLOGY ETF
EWZ ISHARES MSCI BRAZIL CAPPED INDEX FUND
IAU ISHARES COMEX GOLD TRUST
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
BNO US BRENT OIL FUND LP
IHF ISHARES U.S. HEALTHCARE PROVID
DBO INVESCO DB OIL FUND
A115LY ISHARES MSCI QATAR CAPPED ETF
IJR ISHARES S&P SMALL-CAP ETF
IVV ISHARES S&P 500 ETF
IUSV ISHARES CORE RUSSELL U.S. VALU
IUSG ISHARES CORE RUSSELL U.S. GROW
VWO VANGUARD FTSE EMERGING MARKETS
RHS INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT CONSUMER STAPLES ETF
RCD INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ETF
EIS ISHARES MSCI ISRAEL CAPPED ETF
XHS SPDR S&P HEALTH CARE SERVICES FUND
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
UUP INVESCO DB US DOLLAR INDEX BULLISH FUND
A1XFFG FIDELITY MSCI TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES INDEX ETF
EIDO ISHARES MSCI INDONESIA ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Market remains indecisive • Outlook and breadth indicators are mixed: Last week's retest of the S&P 500's 200-day moving average has held, a critical support level, but a long-term breadth indicator has shown deterioration. That is, during the recent retest, a higher percentage of S&P 500 constituents closed below their respective 200-day moving average... see below. Other indicators such as the Discretionary/Staples ratio, Advance-Decline lines, and the percentage of stocks above their 50-da...
XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
EWZ ISHARES MSCI BRAZIL CAPPED INDEX FUND
EWO ISHARES MSCI AUSTRIA CAPPED ET
ECH ISHARES MSCI CHILE CAPPED ETF
EWY ISHARES MSCI SOUTH KOREA CAPPED INDEX FUND
ITA ISHARES U.S. AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF
MCHI.. ISHARES MSCI CHN
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
THD. ISHARES MSCI THAILAND CAPPED E
EZA ISHARES MSCI SOUTH AFRICA ETF
IYT ISHARES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE ETF
SOXX ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
ENZL ISHARES MSCI NEW ZEALAND CAPPE
ERUS BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
XTN SPDR S&P TRANSPORTATION ETF
SMH MARKET VECTORS SMEICONDOUCTOR ETF
CUT GUGGENHEIM MSCI GLOBAL TIMBER
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
EWM ISHARES MSCI MALAYSIA ETF
PPA POWERSHARES ETF TRUST AEROSPACE & DEFENSE PORTFOLIO
DBO POWERSHARES DB OIL FUND
XAR SPDR S&P AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE FUND
BNO US BRENT OIL FUND LP
EGPT MARKET VECTORS EGYPT INDEX
FBT FIRST TRUST NYSE ARCA BIOTECHNOLOGY INDEX FUND
ARGT GLOBAL X FTSE ARGENTINA 20 ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Volatility prevails • Long-term bullish outlook remains. In our last ETF Pathfinder, we voiced our expectation for a continued period of heightened volatility marked by backing and filling. We also noted important levels on the S&P 500 that we are watching - the recent high of ~2,873 as the top-end of the range, and the recent low of ~2,532 as the bottom-end. Nothing has changed regarding these expectations, and we expect markets will continue to consolidate within the aforementioned range. ...
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
EWZ ISHARES MSCI BRAZIL CAPPED INDEX FUND
EWQ ISHARES MSCI FRANCE ETF
EWY ISHARES MSCI SOUTH KOREA CAPPED INDEX FUND
EWN ISHARES MSCI NETHERLANDS ETF
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
SLX. MARKET VECTORS STEEL INDEX FUND
THD. ISHARES MSCI THAILAND CAPPED E
IAI ISHARES U.S. BROKER-DEALERSETF
EWK ISHARES MSCI BELGIUM CAPPED ET
IYT ISHARES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE ETF
SOXX ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
IHI ISHARES U.S. MEDICAL DEVICES E
ENZL ISHARES MSCI NEW ZEALAND CAPPE
ERUS BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
PICK ISHARES MSCI GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRODUCERS ETF
XTN SPDR S&P TRANSPORTATION ETF
XME SPDR S&P METALS & MINING ETF
XBI SPDR S&P BIOTECH ETF
SMH MARKET VECTORS SMEICONDOUCTOR ETF
REMX. MARKET VECTORS RARE EARTH/STRATEGIC METALS ETF
- Shelley Moen
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
BIG PICTURE... see page 2 • Bullish Big Picture. As we mentioned in our March 6 ETF Pathfinder, four days after the S&P 500's historical high, technicals appeared extended, though the broader picture remains bullish. Since then, this extended status has been relieved via a market-wide pullback, and the path of least resistance continues to point higher. The supporting cast of bullish evidence includes: (1) good breadth--negative divergences in advance-decline lines are non-existent; (2) cycli...
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