Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Monitoring for a Pullback We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went to neutral. We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $257 on IWM (up from $245) continue to hold. We continue to see deterioration in market dynamics, and while we expect a period of consolidation/pullback, the afo...

Telia (Buy, TP: SEK46, +12%) Telenor (Neutral, TP: NOK150, -6%) Telia...

Telia has announced a RAN sharing deal with ICE in Norway. We look at the impact of this deal (first derivative and second derivative effects to both Telia and Telenor) and provide some feedback from a management meeting we had this morning with Telia CEO and CFO – which also includes commentary on the outlook in Finland and Sweden M&A.

Telia Company AB: 2 directors

Two Directors at Telia Company AB bought 15,880 shares at between 39.500SEK and 40.490SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over t...

Telia/ice RAN sharing: modest upside over time

Telia (Buy, TP: SEK 46, +15%) Post Q4 25 model update – The Buy case ...

In this note, we update our model and thoughts following the Q4 results (HERE) incorporating conference call feedback and compare our new estimates to guidance and consensus. We have lifted SR expectations for FY26, but EBITDA has come down a touch.

The signal beneath the noise

Solid execution, but valuation still caps upside

Telia (Buy, TP: SEK 48, +18%) Q4 25: Good FCF beat and DPS increase

Telia has reported a mixed set of Q4 results, with a modest EBITDA miss adjusting for Sweden Pension, but a good FCF beat (+9%, even after normalizing for NWC). Guidance is broadly in line with expectations for 2026, and the DPS has been lifted for the first time in four years, which consensus did not expect.

Solid but undramatic Q4, dividend raise

Q4: 5% underlying UW beat and +18% higher DPS

No surprises – and that's the point

Improving execution warrants a neutral stance

Nordic non-life Q4e: Weather the storm(s)

A great company, valued as such

Morning Notes : ASRNL NA, BAR BB, CMBT BB

: ASRNL NA, BAR BB, CMBT BB

CMB.Tech Intelligent asset disposal showcasing skill to time the cycle

CMBT struck the iron while it was hot and in line with its fleet rejuvenation strategy has been offloading 6 older VLCCs and two Capesizes. We estimate the aggregate disposal value at $500m. We expect the block sale to have occurred at firm prices absent discount -perhaps even exceeding our and Clarksons fair market values- considering the booming VLCC rates witnessed in 4Q25. Market rates in this segment were well above $100.000/day at numerous times past months. Half of the capital gain of $26...

European Telecoms for 2026 Industry action required for further outpe...

Over the past 3 years, the EU telecoms sector has had a great run – up >50%, despite modest underlying revenue/ EBITDA growth. This has almost entirely come from a deserved upwards re-rating in the multiple as the risk profile across the sector diminishes – which has been a key theme of ours in the past few years given improved regulation. So, we feel this has now largely played out.

Morning Notes : CMBT BB, DEME BB

: CMBT BB, DEME BB

CMB.Tech Investment in Chinese ammonia supply

CMB.TECH is investing in the Chinese ammonia supply chain and signed an off-take agreement for green ammonia produced by CEEC in the Jilin Province and will own a minority share in privately owned Andefu, one of China's largest ammonia supply chain companies. While CMB.TECH did not disclose any financials on the deal we estimate linked financials are relatively small. CMB.TECH has a sensible but disciplined investment approach towards decarbonisation. Through the offtake agreement and terminal o...