We are taking 3Q25 results and the most recent cNPS data and laying out our latest thinking and forecasts ahead of 4Q results. We expect 4Q results and attendant 2026 guidance to contain material information value for investors and we wanted to share our latest forecasts, data, and trends as a starting point as we navigate this impactful season.
Earlier this month DISH filed an antitrust complaint against DIS in the latest chapter of a long running dispute over DIS’s efforts to create new sports bundles and DISH’s efforts to create new options for how its customers access programming over its platform. In this note we explore the implications of the battle, how it might affect the flexibility of content and distribution in seeking to adjust to thrive in the media world to come, and what it could tell us about the direction of media and...
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
We hosted a call on Monday that covered our analysis of the impact of the FCC inquiries on spectrum values, and how this could change if the Company files for Chapter 11 protection. We hosted the call with Jeff Carlisle who is perhaps the leading expert on matters that sit at the intersection of telecom policy and bankruptcy. We got more questions than we could answer in the time we had, and so we covered the questions we didn’t get to in this note.
Today EchoStar filed an 8-K announcing that they would not make a scheduled interest payment on DBS secured and unsecured bonds. As with the skipped interest payment at EchoStar, this triggers a 30-day grace period after which DBS will be in default. A default at DBS would also trigger a default at Dish Network Corp., based on cross-default protections in Dish Network Corp. bonds. Our quick thoughts in this (very) brief note.
Since Friday’s announcement that SATS is not making an interest payment, triggering a 30-day period that could lead to a SATS voluntary Chapter 11 proceeding, we have been in numerous talks with investors about the most notorious bankruptcy case involving the FCC and a telecom company, NextWave. In this note we quickly summarize the key lessons of that case for investors analyzing the potential implications of a SATS bankruptcy proceeding.
As previously discussed, earlier this month, the FCC opened two proceedings that could adversely affect SATS. The opening round of filings in those proceedings ended earlier this week. In this note we review the filings to update our analysis of the likely outcome.
There are two inquiries underway: one on the validity of the buildout extension; one exploring potential sharing in the MSS spectrum. In the first inquiry, only three parties filed in opposition – VTel, SpaceX, and SFP. The SFP filing alleges that EchoStar used “slight-of-hand” to meet buildout commitments. In the second inquiry, there were several filings from satellite companies that would like access to the spectrum (as one might expect). Our quick reaction in this brief note.
EchoStar filed an 8-K this morning claiming that the recent FCC public notices concerning its licenses have created uncertainty, limiting its ability to continue the buildout. In addition, they disclosed strong adds in April, which is consistent with comments made by Verizon today and others at recent events. Our quick thoughts in this (very) brief note.
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