Following the attack on Iran by the US and Israel late last month which targeted key military sites and strategic infrastructure, as well as a retaliation by Iran, there have been structural shifts in the oil & gas and energy markets. In this report, we discuss the effects of these structural shifts, as well as the impact of the conflict on global supply chains and our coverage universe.
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Gestamp, Nomad Foods (Iglo), Odigeo, Telecom Italia, Techem, Ahlstrom, Azelis, Tullow Oil, Cirsa, Ardagh Metal Beverage Packaging, Ardagh, Centrient, Ineos, Forvia (formerly Faurecia), Encore Capital (formerly Cabot)
Tullow Oil has announced a restructuring, with the maturity on the notes and Glencore Energy facility extended by two years and four years, respectively. In addition, the company has procured a new super-senior cargo prepayment facility with Glencore. While this should buy Tullow some time as there is no haircut on the debt, overall debt levels will likely increase progressively (thanks to the PIK nature of part of the debt). Hence, it remains to be seen how the operational strategy will unfold,...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of C$0.20 per share: Gas to surface at Welchau – Hydrocarbon gas (Methane - CH4) was observed at surface from the Reifling Formation for the first time within the shallowest part of the Welchau anticline following acidization. See website for full report Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: Strong well test results point to meaningful reserves upgrade – The K‑45 vertical well ...
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Profine, Vallourec, Tullow Oil, Polynt, Mehilainen, Altice International, Multiversity, Kantar, Odido, Fedrigoni, Kiloutou, Progroup, Stena AB, Picard, Loewen Play, Biofarma, Grunenthal, Sammontana Italia, Allwyn (formerly Sazka), Pfleiderer, Scan Global Logistics, Forvia (formerly Faurecia)
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Guala Closures, CeramTec, Arrow Global, Tele Columbus, Salt, Altice France (SFR), Infopro Digital, Nimlas, Almaviva, Cirsa, CABB, Ardagh, Canpack, Paprec Group, IRCA Group, Tullow Oil, Tereos, Oriflame
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.90 per share: Imminent flow rate results for first horizontal well. LNG facility construction 90% complete. – 3Q25 production averaged 9,978 mboe/d, broadly in line with expectations. In Uzbekistan, drilling of a 1,000‑meter lateral section at the first horizontal well is underway, with numerous mud gas shows recorded. The lateral may be extended, and the well is expected to be brought ons...
In its November trading statement, Tullow reiterated 2025 guidance and provides initial guidance for 2026, including production of 34-42kboed, reflecting the previously disclosed production issues at the Jubilee field. This guidance is highly sensitive to the performance of the J73-P production well which is due onstream around year end together with the results of an extensive five well Jubilee drilling programme planned for 2026, which will benefit from the previously completed 4D seismic prog...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.40 per share: Dry hole at Mateguafa Oeste but three more prospects to drill – The Mateguafa Oeste was water wet. Our ReNAV for the well was £0.09 per share. We did not carry any production from this prospect in our cash flow forecast. The rig will now move to Mateguafa Attic where the Mateguafa 5 vertical well will be drilled in November. This is a low risk well that is a step out to M...
Tullow has announced a number of key updates including the appointment of Ian Perks as CEO, completion of its Kenya disposal, and, most recently, a reserves update. As indicated at the interim results, Ghanaian reserves were revised down but we believe the negative adjustment of 7.3mmboe to Proven and Probable (2P) Reserves is likely less than the market feared and should be more than offset by conversion of 18.2mmboe of Contingent Resource into 2P Reserves once the Ghanaian licence extensions t...
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