reports
- James Ratzer
Liberty Global (Neutral, $23, +8%) Record low service revenue trends a...
This is meant to be the quarter when the upcoming Sunrise spin should be attracting most attention and helping to crystallise value. However, we can't help but be distracted by a sharp deterioration in underlying service revenue trends as the impact of lapping lower inflation price rises and a sustained KPI loss is starting to catch up with Liberty Global.
Liberty Global Ltd: 1 director
A director at Liberty Global Ltd sold 37,600 shares at 20.323USD and the significance rating of the trade was 87/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clea...
- James Ratzer
Liberty Global (Neutral, $23, +16%) Sunrise CMD feedback and Liberty ...
The Sunrise CMD has just wrapped up – with the official spin-off from Liberty Global coming later this year. We provide our initial thoughts here on the new guidance, the valuation impact and the longer-term potential questions as the industry migrates towards higher-speed infrastructure
- James Ratzer
Liberty Global (Neutral, $24, +24%) Q2 24: Deeper dive on VMO2 result...
As Liberty Global continues its transitional journey, we see two key areas of focus from the recent announcements, where we dig deeper in this note - the newly announced Belgian FTTH network sharing arrangement, and the VMO2 results & outlook.
- James Ratzer
Liberty Global (Neutral) Q1 24 - The challenge of subscriber momentum
After the excitement of the strategic announcements in Q4, this is a quieter quarter with all FY financial guidance re-iterated. However, some of the issues that concerned shareholders with the Q4 results persist in the Q1 results: weak KPIs at VMO2 and VodafoneZiggo with limited signs of growth on the new UK nexfibre footprint. On a more positive note, Swiss broadband adds recovered to growth for the first time in a year and could help to support momentum into the Q4 demerger
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
Liberty Global The end of the cash pile?
We have already written earlier on the Liberty Global results and a deeper dive on the VMO2 guidance. In this note we now write specifically on the 5 new strategic announcements made and why this could imply the end of Liberty Global’s excess cash pile. We show full modelling of the "New Liberty Global" in this note.
- James Ratzer
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
Liberty Global (Buy, $29, +87%) Q3 23 - A teasing outlook for Q4 - bo...
Liberty Global’s Q3 results have a lot to unpack and a teasing outlook for what is to come in Q4. There are points in there for the bulls (improving UK KPIs; fixed revenue inflection in the Continental markets on the back of price rises helping an overall improvement in service revenues; an acceleration in the buyback and almost all guidance metrics maintained) – but also points for the bears (UK revenue outlook cut from “growth” to “stable” on the back of (we believe) weaker fixed ARPU trends; ...
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
No Halloween nightmare from rising bond yields Impact should be modes...
When rates go up, the knee jerk reaction can be to panic. However bond yield rises in 2023 have been more muted than the changes seen in 2022 and with >90% of telco debt as fixed rate, the impact from rising yields is spread out over many years for the sector.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
Liberty Global (Buy): Q2 23 - Financials on track, but work to do on t...
Upon reading Liberty Global’s Q2 release, we got excited when we saw the buyback increase to 15%, and then we got further excited by reaffirmation of all financial guidance which implies improving H2 trends on the back of price rises, but then sadly we saw the weaker KPI momentum from these price rises, which somewhat took the wind out of our sails.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
Liberty Global (Buy, $30, +50%) Q1 23 - Leaving a reasonable amount to...
Liberty Global’s Q1 results were slightly weaker than expected with a higher-than-expected cost inflation drag on EBITDA, but all guidance has been reiterated as the impact of price rises from Q2 onwards in all of their markets should help growth trends to inflect and KPIs were decent across their footprint.
- James Ratzer
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Upgrading Communications, Downgrading Staples In our January 10th Compass, we discussed that a break above 3910 on the S&P 500 would signal a tradable rally, with 4100-4165 our target, which is the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range. We believe equities are still in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area. Upgrading Communications to Market Weight. We have been underweight Communications (XLC, EWCO) since November of 2021, a peri...
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